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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

Posted
Posted

I seriously think this winter delivers all the goods. Snow, cold...the full Monty. PNA, NAO, and even PDO perhaps.

I like the way you think

 

ginxy i used to love paddling past the breakers in palm beach county when there was either a huge nor'easter captured over the Western Atlantic, saw some of the biggest swells of my life just off Delray Beach Florida (lots of sea creatures as well) when it was really big (2x OH w clean up sets) i would usually just watch but even that was fun, you always have to look out for the clean up sets, especially if there was another sand bar 100 yards further out that would break in a bigger wave.....not fun being hit by 8-10 feet of rolling white water.

 

as far as surf in SNE....Ri is the best hands down....i suppose you can include S /Se facing coasts of MVY /Nantucket but i mean getting there during a storm swell is another story. And yes the outer cape gets crushed when a good SE swell is running...i.e BILL.  for the record i haven't seen a bigger swell face than the youtube clip of BIll at arcadia national park in maine. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SVs--h90agM

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

The Euro would support a pattern favorable for near average temps and modest humidity along with multiple cold pool t'storm threats.  The GFS would be more above-average temps with multiple squall line possibilities.  It's just all going to come down to where the trough axis confines itself.  Either way though, we should see some more active times with convective possibilities.  

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

"Yeah I'm not sure what folks are seeing. It's a wet warm and 2 roll pattern late week with trop connection and storms"

 

 

lol...yeah good luck with that on the Euro.

 

 

Still far out that we may be ok, but Euro verbatim is not 70s/humid with storms...its sucky east flow with low 60s.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

72/68 for the first week of July in clouds and mank is not in any sense way shape spin or form days and days of never ending summer.

I think my vacation wee of 7/29 may be better...lol.

Heading to DC 7/22-24 for work....peak of summer in hot DC.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

That's what it says...I'm not making it up.

 

There continues to be a disconnect between what people think may happen and what a model actually shows verbatim, lol. 

 

Just because a model shows it (Wunderground ECMWF does show 60s and rain for the time in question, like Ginx posted), does not mean that's what folks think will happen.  Its just another possibility as any model run is at any point of the year. 

 

Sometimes I really wonder if certain folks actually look at model data before posting.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

There continues to be a disconnect between what people think may happen and what a model actually shows verbatim, lol. 

 

Just because a model shows it (Wunderground ECMWF does show 60s and rain for the time in question, like Ginx posted), does not mean that's what folks think will happen.  Its just another possibility as any model run is at any point of the year. 

 

Sometimes I really wonder if certain folks actually look at model data before posting.

 

 

Well we know some dont, lol. Or look at the model quickly and completely misinterprete it.

 

 

Just to stop the nonesense...I'll post some freebie Euro maps today....here are the temps at 18z on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday in that order...you can see the valid time on the lower right:

 

 

June22_12z_Euro_126.png

 

 

 

June22_12z_Euro_150.png

 

 

 

 

June22_12z_Euro_174.png

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

That's what it says...I'm not making it up.

 

Verbatim its highs in the 60s on Thursday and Friday (though most of the day is spent in the 50s)... not humid in the 70s with storms, lol.  Again, its just what the model shows.

 

Thursday afternoon...54-61 degrees is the dark green.  Not much other way to interpret this.  Its in the 50s Friday afternoon.

 

 

Thursday night looks lovely with upper 40s and low 50s in the hills and rain.  That is not a tropical look.

 

 

Friday afternoon is more highs in the 60s...though most of the day is spend again in the dark green (54-61)

 

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

Well we know some dont, lol. Or look at the model quickly and completely misinterprete it.

 

 

Just to stop the nonesense...I'll post some freebie Euro maps today...

 

LOL I decided to the do the same thing at that time.

 

No one is saying it will happen, but there's no other way to interpret this.  Thursday and Friday could be days to forget about.

 

Eitherway the model is certainly not going with 30 straight days of heat.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

ITs pretty obvious where the airmass is coming from too when you follow the shading of temps...its coming straight from the Atlantic ocean and Nova Scotia.

 

 

If that is a tropical pattern with t-storms, then I've got some Enron stock to sell you.

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted
ITs pretty obvious where the airmass is coming from too when you follow the shading of temps...its coming straight from the Atlantic ocean and Nova Scotia.

If that is a tropical pattern with t-storms, then I've got some Enron stock to sell you.

I'm one of the spinners I guess but monitoring trends run to run. The extreme cold is gone and we appear to be heading for dank but tolerable for temps as long as you're not on vacation which I won't be.

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