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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

in a roundabout way it could be--if we get into a humid/wet pattern with high overnight lows, we could be. Guess you could call it right, but for the wrong reason...

Nah...no days below....just days and days of heat.

Lol....weeks of days of 75/66 and nights of 66/65 will be aob no matter the spin.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

Posted
Posted

they usually do 3 graphs .. Southern NE, Boston area and the nothern NE..that is likely an average so it still could be right.

Yeah I sort of always figured it was for like the Boston suburbs or something...just a forecast for BOS could be misleading with sea breezes or something, but figured its probably a generic forecast for like west of 128 to 495 or something.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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New GFS sure is warm into Wednesday night. No sign of BD yet.

 

 

It may be worth noting ( ...it may not be..) that the 00z GGEM had zippo BD, and Big Heat signaled right through 168 hours.  In fact, Tue-Wed-Thu afternoons, the model has 20+C at 850mb over much of New England, westerly/SW wind and a lee side thermal trough signature.  That's probably 93 to 99. It is interesting that the GGEM of all models was flatter and less BD-able.

 

The 00z "GONAPS" model (...which, the model was supposedly upgraded recently, fw that's worth...) had only a weak-ish reflection of a BD down to about the NH/MA border before retreating it NE sometime mid week.  

 

The UKMET does not appear to have any kind of BD at least through D6 ...not sure about there after as it was drilling a SW, N of Maine with some +PP entering Ontario ...typical precursor, so it may have one beyond the edge that frame.  

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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It may be worth noting ( ...it may not be..) that the 00z GGEM had zippo BD, and Big Heat signaled right through 168 hours.  In fact, Tue-Wed-Thu afternoons, the model has 20+C at 850mb over much of New England, westerly/SW wind and a lee side thermal trough signature.  That's probably 93 to 99. It is interesting that the GGEM of all models was flatter and less BD-able.

 

The 00z "GONAPS" model (...which, the model was supposedly upgraded recently, fw that's worth...) had only a weak-ish reflection of a BD down to about the NH/MA border before retreating it NE sometime mid week.  

 

The UKMET does not appear to have any kind of BD at least through D6 ...not sure about there after as it was drilling a SW, N of Maine with some +PP entering Ontario ...typical precursor, so it may have one beyond the edge that frame.  

 

Big change on the GFS, but lets see if this is a 12z GFS thing or if all 12z models show this. Even the euro ensembles hinted at a nasty period Thursday into Friday.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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As you hoped, I think you mean to say...

 

I'm Scott on that, though...  Seasonal trend don't exactly support languishing in the farts of the dragon's lair.  Granted, this is a pattern change.  We'll see.

 

I mean there is plenty of time to vary solutions here. I personally do not want what the 06z GFS and 00z euro had. I;m done with rain.  However the euro ensembles and even the GEFS for that matter did have a miserable signal at the end of next week. Plenty of time to work out the details.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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LOL at the GFS cane coming into the Gulf then up EC.

 

The GFS is like a little boy with A.D.D. that can't pay attention in class.  "Ralph?  Ralph?!  RALPH!!"   "oH, Sorry -- what planet am I supposed to be on?"

 

Trying to fabricate a D7 tropical v-max ...then going forward.... whatever.  Also, how about the 594dm ridge node moving west toward the MA after that 'cane?

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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The GFS is like a little boy with A.D.D. that can't pay attention in class.  "Ralph?  Ralph?!  RALPH!!"   "oH, Sorry -- what planet am I supposed to be on?"

 

Trying to fabricate a D7 tropical v-max ...then going forward.... whatever.  Also, how about the 594dm ridge node moving west toward the MA after that 'cane?

 

There is a signal for something in the Gulf around that time. At the least, folks down there need to watch, but yeah....I like the 60kt winds it has for the CT coastline..lol.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Maybe we split the difference and end up 80 ish and humid with storms

 

I'd be willing to offer upper 80s Sun through mid day Wed, as a minimum high temperature probability.  That period has always been the higher confidence interval for positive departures -- the scale of it being in question, as well as timing (...if at all) the truncating affects/effects of any BD.   A few less dependable model types backed off the BD throttle, and now this 12z GFS has joined that fray.   The Euro should interesting...  

 

I caution though that at D5 we are only at the door-stop of the Euro wheel-house.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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I'd be willing to offer upper 80s Sun through mid day Wed, as a minimum high temperature probability. That period has always been the higher confidence interval for positive departures -- the scale of it being in question, as well as timing (...if at all) the truncating affects/effects of any BD. A few less dependable model types backed off the BD throttle, and now this 12z GFS has joined that fray. The Euro should interesting...

I caution though that at D5 we are only at the door-stop of the Euro wheel-house.

No I meant next Thursday thru the holiday . 90 plus is a lock Sun-Wed next week. Maybe Instead of backdoor we get storms and humidity which makes sense instead of that nonsense on the Euro
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