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We appear to near the threshold into a new pattern - good opportunity to start a new forecast/banter


Typhoon Tip

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  On 6/24/2013 at 10:50 AM, CoastalWx said:

I don't think anyone called for stratiform rains, but Thursday and Friday may be close to -10 for highs and cloudy and rather wet is euro ensembles and GFS op are right. That's all we mean.

Which is a far cry from the 53 and rain on NE winds with air coming from Nova Scotia that the Euro had for 2 days

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  On 6/24/2013 at 10:55 AM, Wx Hype said:

remember that foolish Tweet from TK about not having 2 dry days in a row? lol

 

 

With 15.38" of rain in last 6+weeks, yesterday was 5 days in a row without rain, first time since early MAY!! pic.twitter.com/ytxJmtvMe2

 

Well he's talking about New England and yesterday NNE got smoked.

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  On 6/24/2013 at 10:57 AM, CoastalWx said:

Like U 50s and rain. That's how you get those temps. We did in in 2009. If it's not straight rain the whole time temps will be warmer obviously.

My whole point was..it wasn't and couldn't happen based on the pattern. I thought maybe upper 60's and humid but not 50's. The Euro was awful on this

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  On 6/24/2013 at 10:57 AM, Wx Hype said:

In all seriousness...with all the water in the ground and plenty more on the way this week..you have to wonder if this summer ends up being one of the most humid we've ever had. There's just not gonna be anyway to dry out the low levels this summer

 

You really need all of the northeast to be wet. You'd be surprised how dry it gets with a nice NW wind...heck we did it last week. If you don't have a pattern of SW winds pumping in humidity...it won't matter how much rain we get.

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  On 6/24/2013 at 10:58 AM, Wx Hype said:

My whole point was..it wasn't and couldn't happen based on the pattern. I thought maybe upper 60's and humid but not 50's. The Euro was awful on this

 

It can easily happen...this is a pattern that supports it for a temporary time.

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  On 6/24/2013 at 10:59 AM, CoastalWx said:

In all seriousness...with all the water in the ground and plenty more on the way this week..you have to wonder if this summer ends up being one of the most humid we've ever had. There's just not gonna be anyway to dry out the low levels this summer

You really need all of the northeast to be wet. You'd be surprised how dry it gets with a nice NW wind...heck we did it last week. If you don't have a pattern of SW winds pumping in humidity...it won't matter how much rain we get.

yeah things dry out pretty quickly last few days.
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  On 6/24/2013 at 10:58 AM, Wx Hype said:

My whole point was..it wasn't and couldn't happen based on the pattern. I thought maybe upper 60's and humid but not 50's. The Euro was awful on this

It's almost like a meso-scale thing on this level in New England...not sure it's really something a pattern on a global or continental scale would support or not support. It's like a glorified coastal front. Sure some patterns are better than others but a duck fart could swing a back door down into New England.

And no offense but you keep saying it couldn't happen based on the pattern but haven't mentioned anything about what that pattern is or why it wouldn't allow it to happen. That reeks of wish casting ;)

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  On 6/24/2013 at 11:41 AM, powderfreak said:

It's almost like a meso-scale thing on this level in New England...not sure it's really something a pattern on a global or continental scale would support or not support. It's like a glorified coastal front.

And no offense but you keep saying it couldn't happen based on the pattern but haven't mentioned anything about what that pattern is or why it wouldn't allow it to happen. That reeks of wish casting ;)

 

Global pattern has little to do with a mesoscale thing like you said. I mean you need a trough to the northeast to support high pressure on the western side of it near Maine, but I've seen all sorts of patterns produce BDF. Some are more favorable than others.

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  On 6/24/2013 at 11:44 AM, CoastalWx said:

Global pattern has little to do with a mesoscale thing like you said. I mean you need a trough to the northeast to support high pressure on the western side of it near Maine, but I've seen all sorts of patterns produce BDF. Some are more favorable than others.

The BD is on the euro too. It's just hung way up in ME. A wiggle here and a tickle there and it could still verify crappy for us.
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  On 6/24/2013 at 10:53 AM, weathafella said:

Don't buy the snow blower...you'll jinx all of us!

 

No joke there.

I had a sort of marginal, second hand snow thrower that I used for 10 years.

Two years ago I splurged on a big Toro.

Have you seen how much the upstate NY winters have sucked since then?

 

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