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June 21-27 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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the slowest moving bowing line segment......in.....the......world

 

Edit: It's a boundary palooza at my house....cool wind shifts every other minute

 

That's the way it is here now. Winds keep in flipping to different southerly and westerly directions. Temperature didn't stay down long. 

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Kirksville to Ottumwa area starting to get active with incipient cells.  SPC mulling a possible watch for sw IA as LLJ starts to do its thing.  Maybe these cells will move to the Quad City area and Cyclone can get some storms.

 

I was thinking the LLJ would be aimed further north tonight, since the warm front has surged northward. Is there a good site for viewing the LLJ? -anyone?

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GGEM definitely jumped on the slower and further south train on the 00z run. I'm interested to see if this slowing trend continues to the point where we have the mid level jet and attendant stronger deep layer shear rounding the base of the trough in time so low level winds aren't as veered (on Wednesday) and accordingly higher tornado potential is evident. Supercells going in IA eastward across the MS River on Tuesday evening may have a great environment to work with (despite somewhat weaker mid/upper) level flow as well assuming storm mode doesn't go awry.

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DTX not very excited for Wednesday

 

A SIGNIFICANT WAVE IS ON SCHEDULE FOR WEDNESDAY...LIKELY TRACKING
THROUGH SOMETIME DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE CONCEPTUAL MODEL LOOKS
GOOD AND HAS THE WAVE IN THE RIGHT PLACE...BACKSIDE OF SHORTWAVE
RIDGE STRUCTURE ON NOSE OF LEADING UPPER LEVEL JETLET. EXACT
TRAJECTORY IS AGAIN A HEADACHE WITH MODELS DIFFERING. THE PREFERENCE
IS WITH A MORE NORTHERN AND ZONAL TRACK...SIMILAR TO THE
ECMWF...WHICH PUSHES THE SHORTWAVE THROUGH PORTIONS OF NORTHERN LAKE
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN LAKE HURON. THIS SOLUTION ALSO SUPPORTS LESS
IN THE WAY OF LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING/SLOWING SINCE TRANSIENT MOTION
OF IMPRESSIVE THETA E RIDGE SHOULD CAUSE THE HEIGHT FALLS TO FLASH
ACROSS THE STATE. THE LOW WILL LIKELY TRACK WITH THE NOSE OF THAT
FEATURE. THE POSSIBILITY EXISTS FOR SOME CAPPING ACROSS THE CWA
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE CONVECTION FILLS IN BY MIDDAY. EQUALLY GOOD
INSTABILITY IS ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY BUT BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE
NOWHERE NEAR AS HIGH. ORGANIZED SEVERE DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY.

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I kinda like Tuesday and especially Wednesday's potential around here. Shear definitely looks better than what we've seen lately and that is going to make a difference I think. Would think that Wednesday's probs will get raised in some of that large 15% area as we get closer.

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Watch issued for IA/IL/MO.

 

Should see the complex across IA/MO develop into a nice elongated bow. Unfortunately the lingering activity across the DVN/LOT CWA's probably killed the threat farther north.

 

I'm liking my position in Peoria right now Joe ;) Needed a boat here last night/this morning though lol.

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