A-L-E-K Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 looks like another miss to my southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 looks like another miss to my southwestMore like a miss to the north.Activity will struggle to make it south of the IL/WI border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 I don't think rain, look what happened, even the moderate to heavy rain shriveled up from those stronger storms. Until the OFB moves through and perhaps shift the winds back west, the convection to the west will probably either train or push slowly south. It feels anything but dry out there tonight. I think some weaker action will push in later. Temp is on the way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Tomorrow's severe setup out in Iowa will depend on what happens with tonight's convection. We saw that the lingering storms this morning and early afternoon really screwed the SW MN/SE SD area for storms today. Tonight's activity will likely have an impact on tomorrow as well, but to how much and where remains a mystery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Deja vu from last night, SW WI is just getting raked with heavy thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Deja vu from last night, SW WI is just getting raked with heavy thunderstorms. They're getting hammered in Grant County, listening to the scanner feed a lot of the county is under water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 They're getting hammered in Grant County, listening to the scanner feed a lot of the county is under water. Pretty big area of 3"+ amounts. That's a hilly area - no doubt a lot of flash flooding going on across roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Plenty of leftover storms over Iowa this morning. Also a huge cloud mass associated with it. Really muddles today's severe prospects over Iowa. This may actually help severe prospects on the Illinois side though. Mid-levels really drop off east of the Mississippi, but instability should build pretty nicely with plenty of sun this morning. Wherever that outflow/differential heating boundary ends up should light up pretty good this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 LOT mentions growing instability this afternoon up to 3000 J/KG per the NAM but also admits it might be overdone. Pure sunshine here now with temp of 77. Doesn't feel quite as swampy as yesterday, but dewpoint currently at 65. As Cyclone mentions... Could be good something to watch in IL later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Plenty of leftover storms over Iowa this morning. Also a huge cloud mass associated with it. Really muddles today's severe prospects over Iowa. This may actually help severe prospects on the Illinois side though. Mid-levels really drop off east of the Mississippi, but instability should build pretty nicely with plenty of sun this morning. Wherever that outflow/differential heating boundary ends up should light up pretty good this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 The 12z NAM makes Tuesday afternoon/evening look fun in IA/IL/southern WI with better mid-level flow coming over lots of instability. Upwards of >5000 j/kg of SBCAPE and even pokes PWATS up to 2.2" late in the evening. I'll be arriving back home somewhere in the late evening too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 g13_2013174_1402_smDSM_vis.jpg It looks like the RAP continues to heat up east of that stuff into the afternoon and you get new development as that pushes east into eastern IA/nw IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Also, the 6z 4km NAM develops what looks like a nasty bow in northern IA/southern MN tomorrow evening and races it eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 A few of the cells on the front edge of the line in Iowa have had tops over 45kft. Instability will only continue to grow out ahead of the line. It's starting to move out of the area with the better bulk shear though, so it's gonna have to maintain awhile longer before it can rely solely on instability/developing cool pool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 NAM and GFS are pretty impressive for Tuesday and Wednesday forum-wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 The line of weak crapvection has moved across the entire state and probably ruined the chance of anything decent later. Locations from here back through Des Moines have dropped into the 60s to around 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 12z GFS really impressive too for something big along the IA/MN border tomorrow afternoon evening with a wave coming through, backed sfc flow too with lots of instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 12z GFS really impressive too for something big along the IA/MN border tomorrow afternoon evening with a wave coming through, backed sfc flow too with lots of instability. Yeah the Mon-Wed period looks real interesting. Classic big cape, ridge rider setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 The line of weak crapvection has moved across the entire state and probably ruined the chance of anything decent later. Locations from here back through Des Moines have dropped into the 60s to around 70. Yeah SPC just hacked away most of Iowa. Only play today looks to be with the remnant outflow/ongoing broken line of storms. Northeast MO, far southeast IA and west-central IL looking the best right now. Storms north of I-80 not looking as good, and feeding off of lower instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Yeah, today may be a day when I long for a radar site at Kirksville. Full sun and 86/66 here at Dunlap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 One of our long lost posters Hometown appears to be in trouble PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1149 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1146 AM FLASH FLOOD XENIA 38.64N 88.64W 06/23/2013 CLAY IL EMERGENCY MNGR WATER FLOWING INTO HOMES. DEPTH UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. 1146 AM FLASH FLOOD FLORA 38.67N 88.48W 06/23/2013 CLAY IL EMERGENCY MNGR WATER OVER ROADS IN FLORA AND ROADS ARE BEING CLOSED. DEPTH UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 One of our long lost posters Hometown appears to be in trouble PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1149 AM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1146 AM FLASH FLOOD XENIA 38.64N 88.64W 06/23/2013 CLAY IL EMERGENCY MNGR WATER FLOWING INTO HOMES. DEPTH UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. 1146 AM FLASH FLOOD FLORA 38.67N 88.48W 06/23/2013 CLAY IL EMERGENCY MNGR WATER OVER ROADS IN FLORA AND ROADS ARE BEING CLOSED. DEPTH UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME. Yep, I think I saw him post that he was going to move to OK after completing course work at Eastern IL Univ. in Charleston. Anyway, some incipient cells are forming northward of the flash flood warning complex in other parts of central IL at this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 The line of broken storms crossing the Mississippi River around I-80 are trying to reorganize and strengthen. LLJ doesn't appear to be helping but sunshine may be adding enough instability to keep the line moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 That line in western IL is starting to finally re intensify. BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 216 PM CDT SUN JUN 23 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN BUREAU COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS... EASTERN HENRY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN WHITESIDE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 300 PM CDT * AT 213 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM TAMPICO TO ALTONA...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Pretty sure Jhamps moved to Dallas. 85/71 here at 3:00. Bubbling cumulus. Let's see if we can make it three days in a row in the LAF... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Pretty sure Jhamps moved to Dallas. 85/71 here at 3:00. Bubbling cumulus. Let's see if we can make it three days in a row in the LAF... Ah, I stand corrected on Jhamps whereabouts. Looks like action might be picking up a bit for us in IL and In this Sunday even though the more powerful storms and stronger flow might not arrive till midweek. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 SPC thinks marginal flow aloft will preclude the issuance of a watch for IL but trends will be monitored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Cells around Indy are now Severe warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Mesoscale discussion for northern IL and southern WI states a WW is unlikely. However, that line is holding its own. A few warned counties in western IL. Lets see if it holds together as it crosses I-39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 That is a nice lengthy squall line forming. But I am also amazed by that stationary MCS just sitting outside the flow over se IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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