Chicago WX Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 If you want to hump the HRRR, keep in mind it had nothing coming remotely close to LAF until its 19z run caught a clue. But I digress...models seem to struggle with convective patterns. Buyer beware. Probably best to watch radars and mesoscale features...and then hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 lol What the RAP shows isn't the MN MCS. It's development in E. IA/S. WI/N. IL as the LLJ increases this evening. Several models show this occuring. Yea I noticed that too and they also have this afternoon's OFB to play with. Last time I could see it on radar it was laying from Keokuk, IA to Rushville, IL to Bloomington, IL area. Do you know where it's at now? 0z Mesoanalysis update has VERY favorable parameters for severe storms across central IL in the next few hours along the remnant outflow boundary if storms are able to fire as some hi res models are showing from the LLJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 lol What the RAP shows isn't the MN MCS. It's development in E. IA/S. WI/N. IL as the LLJ increases this evening. Several models show this occuring. LOT discussed this as well....tough to tell skies here right now....i thought it was clearing a bit....then clouding up....but then I pretty clearly sas a high jet with its trail...def feeling muggier then an hour or so ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 Yea I noticed that too and they also have this afternoon's OFB to play with. Last time I could see it on radar it was laying from Keokuk, IA to Rushville, IL to Bloomington, IL area. Do you know where it's at now? Near an ALO-IOW-SPI line. I don't totally buy into the scenario, but it's possible and has support. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Near an ALO-IOW-SPI line. I don't totally buy into the scenario, but it's possible and has support. Is that Waterloo to Iowa City to Springfield? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 New storms are firing in southern MN. Maybe we'll get some help from the LLJ and have a nice cold pool develop to drive a good MCS southeastward on that instability gradient or have storms form on that outflow boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 Is that Waterloo to Iowa City to Springfield? Correct. ...Roughly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 the RAP hasn't never had a clue since December and has been particularly poor at handing these waves. Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 More storms firing in SW MN. The cell near Eau Claire will probably end up around Sheboygan or Manitowoc later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 More storms firing in SW MN. The cell near Eau Claire will probably end up around Sheboygan or Manitowoc later. really starting to follow it's cold pool as a warm wing kicks out Edit: gust front trying to outrun on it's SW flank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 really starting to follow it's cold pool as a warm wing kicks out Edit: gust front trying to outrun on it's SW flank Yeah you can see the gust front clearly. This storm is b-lining it towards Stevens Point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Might make a run at southeast South Dakota tomorrow. Gonna have to leave early to be sure. Looks like a decent chance for some nice sups there before the complexes begin to organize and grow upscale. Around here it looks like the severe threat is pretty low through the weekend. Best upper support remains west and north of the area, so anything that moves in will have only marginal severe risks, much like today. Definitely not an impressive ring of fire type severe setup for this area yet. Maybe things will get more interesting later in the month and into July. EDIT: Woops, wrong thread. Hopefully a mod can move this to the current severe thread. Anyway, also looks pretty decent in southwest Minnesota tomorrow. May just head there since it's closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Constant thunder and lightning now for the past hour here just west of MSN. Perfect summer time t-storm action. Nothing severe but nice to have the action. I don't recall this type of activity in my 8 years in the Sheboygan area..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Woke up to one hell of a storm just now. Thunder is rocking out and heavy rain pounding down. This wing on radar looks sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Pretty amazing afd from Dtx...even if the ultimate forecast is kinda a let down SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TONIGHT SUPPRESSION OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THERMAL FIELDS HAS OCCURRED IN THE SUBSIDENCE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW WELL NORTHEAST OF LAKE HURON. THIS HAS ALL OCCURRED UNDERNEATH AND WORKING AGAINST AN AMPLIFYING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. IT IS FAIRLY NOISY...BUT THE MEAN LOWER TROPOSPHERIC THETA E GRADIENT IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA NEAR THE TRI CITIES/SAGINAW BAY AND THROUGH THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE THUMB. UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS FOCUSED ALONG THE EDGE OF A STOUT MIDLEVEL CAPPING INVERSION (SEE KDVN 00Z SOUNDING). FORCING THAT INITIATED THE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS TO BE SOME CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION THAT OCCURRED AHEAD OF A CONVECTIVE VORTICITY MAX. THIS VORT MAX FRACTURED OFF OF THE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT DIVED THROUGH NORTHERN ILLINOIS YESTERDAY...REVERSED COURSE...AND LIFTED BACK NORTHWARD DUE TO ANTICYCLONIC BACKGROUND FLOW. 850-300MB MEAN FLOW IS FORECASTED TO BE LIGHT WESTERLY AT APPRX 20 KNOTS...WHILE CORFIDI VECTORS ARE OUT OF THE EAST THROUGH THIS MORNING. IN THE EARLIER AVIATION DISCUSSION...TOTALLY DISCOUNTED THE LOW LEVEL JET WHICH IS NOT COMPLETELY ACCURATE. IT IS THERE...BUT ONE ACTUALLY HAS TO LOOK BELOW THE 850MB LEVEL...MORE INTO THE 950-925MB LAYER. THE QUESTION IS THEN WHAT SORT OF IMPACT DOES THIS HAVE ON ACTIVITY THAT IS LIKELY FORCED WELL ABOVE 800MB. THE BOTTOM LINE HERE IS THAT BEST FORCING FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN WELL WEST OF LOWER MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. THIS DOES NOT MEAN THE AREA IS TOTALLY IN THE CLEAR DURING THE NEAR TO EARLY SHORT TERM PERIOD. SUPPRESSION OF THE LOW LEVEL THETA E FIELDS SUPPORTS THE VERY MODEST MIDLEVEL CONFLUENCE IN PLACE OVER SOUTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN. THE MASS CONVERGENCE SIGNAL IS NOT AS GOOD AS IT WAS MODELED IN RUNS INITIALIZED 24 HOURS AGO. HOWEVER...IR IMAGERY IS SHOWING THAT MID TO HIGH CLOUD WILL PASS OVER THE NORTHERN CWA BETWEEN 9-11Z. THE INTRODUCTION OF THIS SATURATION IN COMBINATION WITH CLOUD TOP COOLING MAY BE ENOUGH TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER TO POSSIBLE THUNDER DEVELOPMENT. WEAK LAPSE RATES AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL LIMIT ANY VIGOR. MASSAGED POPS DOWN TO THE 50 RANGE FOR THE NORTHERN CWA THIS MORNING. VARIOUS HI RESOLUTION OUTPUT ALONG WITH THETA E PLAN VIEW PROGS SUGGEST THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL THEN MIGRATE TO THE FAR SOUTHERN CWA FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY UPSTREAM FLOW VEERING THIS MORNING AND SETTING UP OVER THE SOUTHERN CWA. SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT VERY LITTLE CAP WILL EXIST BECAUSE OF MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE GRADIENTS. REMAINED VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH THE FORECAST HERE...JUST INCREASING INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. CONDITIONALLY SPEAKING...BEHAVIOR OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE PULSE LIKE GIVEN VERY LOW 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND WILL FOCUS DOWN TOWARD THE OH/MI BORDER. INSTABILITY IS SOMEWHAT OF AN EYEBROW RAISER WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. GIVEN THIS TRUMP CARD...A CONDITIONAL ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST WITH STORM CORE COLLAPSES (WINDGUSTS POTENTIALLY TO 60MPH). FREEZING LEVELS ARE VERY HIGH FOR MUCH HAIL. HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE UPPER 80S AREAWIDE. THIS WILL SUPPORT HEAT INDICES IN THE LOWER 90S. ANOTHER BOUT OF LARGE SCALE RIDGE AMPLIFICATION WILL SEND A SECONDARY MIDLEVEL WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NORTHWARD. THIS WILL REESTABLISH CAPPING AND PUSH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WELL NORTH OF THE CWA. BALMY LOWS TONIGHT...READINGS STAYING IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70. LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE TO BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE FORECAST. DESPITE DAYTIME MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 1500 J/KG THE CAPE ITSELF IS VERY THIN AND NARROW...MEANING UPDRAFTS THAT FORM WILL HAVE A LONG WAY TO GO UP IN THE COLUMN TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE ENERGY. BEFORE THE CAPE CAN BE TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF A SUBSTANTIAL CAPPING INVERSION NEEDS TO BE OVERCOME...SOMETHING THAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE TRIVIAL GIVEN THE LAYER OF WARM AIR BETWEEN 600 AND 800 MB. ON SITE (KDTX) AND UPSTREAM (KDVN) SOUNDINGS VERIFY THIS STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN THE SUBSTANTIAL CAP IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE WITH A DRY FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE CWA DURING THE VERY WARM SUNDAY AFTERNOON WHERE HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO GET TO OR VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES. SURFACE DEWPOINTS GETTING INTO THE UPPER 60S WILL DRIVE HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MAIN EXCEPTION TO THIS DRY FORECAST COULD BE ALONG THE EASTERN THUMB SOUTH TO THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE WHERE THE LAKE BREEZE COULD HELP OVERCOME THE CAP. WITH SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED TO BE BELOW 10 MPH THERE IS A CHANCE A LAKE BREEZE COULD FORM...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. EVEN WITH THE ADDED BOOST FROM THE LAKE BREEZE...WILL LIMIT POPS TO 20 TO 30 PERCENT IN THESE AREAS. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE A POOR HANDLE ON THIS CAP AS THEY CONVECT OVER THE ENTIRE CWA ON SUNDAY WHILE THE NAM KEEPS QPF LIMITED TO THE AFOREMENTIONED LAKESHORE AREAS. HODOGRAPHS SHOW A VERY WEAK WIND FIELD...THEREFOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT CAN BE GENERATED ON SUNDAY WILL BE WEAK AND SHORT LIVED. BY MONDAY MLCAPE VALUES SOAR TO A MORE RESPECTABLE 2000 J/KG DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER THE CAP REMAINS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH A SIGNIFICANT LAYER OF WARM AIR BETWEEN 800 AND 850 MB. CLOSE INSPECTION OF THE MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP IS NOT UNIFORM OVER THE CWA WITH THE CAP SLIGHTLY WEAKER HEADING FARTHER NORTH...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 69 CORRIDOR. THERE IS ALSO A WEAK BUT NOTABLE SHORTWAVE TRACKING THROUGH THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES DURING THIS SAME TIME PERIOD. WITH BETTER INSTABILITY AND A WEAKER CAP WILL KEEP CHANCY POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND LEAVE AREAS TO THE SOUTH FAIRLY DRY WITH AT MOST A 20 POP. ALTHOUGH THE HODOGRAPHS WILL BE IMPROVED OVER SUNDAY...THEY REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK WITH A LOW THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER. ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP FOR MONDAY AS HIGHS ONCE AGAIN GET TO OR VERY CLOSE TO 90 DEGREES. A HUMID AIRMASS WILL AGAIN BRING HEAT INDEX VALUES INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S MONDAY AFTERNOON. A LARGE SCALE RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A WARM HUMID AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE WITH INSTABILITY BUILDING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. A CAPPING INVERSION WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DESPITE WHAT THE QPF FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NWP MODELS GENERATE. AT THIS TIME IT IS DIFFICULT TO GO WITH ANYTHING HIGHER THAN CHANCY POPS GIVEN THE LACK OF A LARGE SCALE FEATURE TO OVERCOME THE CAPPING INVERSION. HIGHS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN BE SOLIDLY IN THE 80S...WITH SOME 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW 90S. RELIEF DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WILL NOT COME EASY AS LOW TEMPERATURES HOVER AROUND 70 DEGREES. THE PATTERN CHANGES BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION...USHERING IN COOL CANADIAN AIR BY FRIDAY. THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH THIS FEATURE...HOWEVER THERE IS AGREEMENT THAT THIS LARGE SCALE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS BREAKING THE CAPPING INVERSION GETS EASIER WITH MID LEVEL DYNAMICS. IT IS STILL TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING WITH REGARDS TO SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...BUT WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AS THE SYSTEM EVOLVES. THE COOLER AIRMASS WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE 75 TO 80 DEGREE RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 bow coming out of NW IL looks to be gusting out.... although it has some clearing in front of it...the area looks to be fairly stable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 I think in the short term for our subforum the training flooding rains will be of greatest concern the next few days. Maybe svr enhancement for mid week and certainly west of the Mississippi River and in WI in SPC outlined areas in the interim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
oldlogin Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 I think in the short term for our subforum the training flooding rains will be of greatest concern the next few days. Maybe svr enhancement for mid week and certainly west of the Mississippi River and in WI in SPC outlined areas in the interim. That complex in Eastern Ill ( Ford Co) is dropping a lot of rain and not moving much---- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 That complex in Eastern Ill ( Ford Co) is dropping a lot of rain and not moving much---- PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1134 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..1130 AM FLASH FLOOD GIBSON CITY 40.47N 88.38W06/22/2013 FORD IL TRAINED SPOTTER 8-12 INCHES OF WATER ON MOST ROADS IN TOWN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Might make a run at southeast South Dakota tomorrow. Gonna have to leave early to be sure. Looks like a decent chance for some nice sups there before the complexes begin to organize and grow upscale. Around here it looks like the severe threat is pretty low through the weekend. Best upper support remains west and north of the area, so anything that moves in will have only marginal severe risks, much like today. Definitely not an impressive ring of fire type severe setup for this area yet. Maybe things will get more interesting later in the month and into July. EDIT: Woops, wrong thread. Hopefully a mod can move this to the current severe thread. Anyway, also looks pretty decent in southwest Minnesota tomorrow. May just head there since it's closer. Couldn't get my lazy ass out of bed in time. Probably gonna regret that later this evening when all the pics/vid start rolling in. There's lots of instability building along and south of that outflow boundary south and southwest of the QC. Will be interesting to see if anything fires from that later today. Mid-levels are pretty weak down this way though by later today, so organization looks iffy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 What's the forecast for the LLJ tonight? More storms in the same general area?... Look out LAF if that complex builds your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 zzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Didn't get much action this morning Alek!? Fwiw: NAM hires shows LLJ reactivating tonight, but further north. Wouldn't be surprised if it was a bit further south near the leftover boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*IndyMeso* Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Storms are building now across central indiana. May make for an interesting but welcomed relief for working the Dave Matthews concert tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Wow, just got absolutely clobbered. Wind driven sheets of rain for 30 minutes, dime sized hail mixed in for a time as well. Never seen it rain so hard in my entire life. Roads and fields flooded in an hour. Still coming down at a decent clip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Didn't get much action this morning Alek!? Fwiw: NAM hires shows LLJ reactivating tonight, but further north. Wouldn't be surprised if it was a bit further south near the leftover boundary. not a drop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Cell over LAF is predominantly on the south side, but the airport had a gust of 42 mph as it rolled in. Not much rain here yet, but thunder is cranking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 Couldn't get my lazy ass out of bed in time. Probably gonna regret that later this evening when all the pics/vid start rolling in.Not getting out of bed in time might end up being a good thing. We'll know soon enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Not getting out of bed in time might end up being a good thing. We'll know soon enough. My thinking last night was to target southwest MN or southeast SD. Looks like central NE might end up being a better place to be, but I don't think I could have made it that far anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Picture speaks for itself. ALMOST 3 inches in a little over Hour IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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