Chicago WX Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Kinda surprised how close the complex has made it to LAF. Will crap out completely before it gets here, but good longevity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Kinda surprised how close the complex has made it to LAF. Will crap out completely before it gets here, but good longevity. no doubt, it had a good run. we'll see if the new SD storms can make a similar 800+ mile trip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 probably a similar dying complex for our area tomorrow morning could be....I'll give a little stronger nod to this complex.... starting to haul arse....latest warning... * AT 227 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF SPOTTSWOOD TO WOLSEY TO LANE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Garbage. thing died out hardly any rain let alone lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 could be....I'll give a little stronger nod to this complex.... starting to haul arse....latest warning... * AT 227 PM CDT...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF SPOTTSWOOD TO WOLSEY TO LANE...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. even extrapolating a speed of 40 which is probably generous once it starts turning more SE, this thing won't get into our area until the diurnal min and will likely be in weakening state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 even extrapolating a speed of 40 which is probably generous once it starts turning more SE, this thing won't get into our area until the diurnal min and will likely be in weakening state. true....want to see if it bows and blows it's wad...or ramps up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 Some half assed mammatus trying to show up...but meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Some half assed mammatus trying to show up...but meh. yeah...definetly a JV show today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 decentish wake low winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 latest on the SD shtuff is similar per latest disco...sun popping in NW IL per obs from family...wonder how much the boundary will move back north in our neck of the woods MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1156 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0349 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD THROUGH SWRN MN CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 336... VALID 212049Z - 212215Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 336 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...DAMAGING WIND...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAIN LIKELY NEXT FEW HOURS AS STORMS CONTINUE THROUGH ERN SD INTO SWRN MN. DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED STORM COMPLEX WITH COMMA HEAD AND BOW ECHO OVER ERN SD HAS ACCELERATED TO 45+ KT WITH A REAR INFLOW NOTCH EVIDENT BEHIND BOW APEX. THIS STORM IS MOVING ENEWD BUT SHOULD TREND MORE EWD AND ESEWD ALONG INSTABILITY GRADIENT ON NRN PERIPHERY OF WARMER 700 MB TEMPERATURES WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION SUPPORTED BY MOIST ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND A SSWLY LLJ FROM THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. DVN keeping an eye on it too.... . FAIRLY QUIET REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN WAKE OFEARLIER CONVECTION. WATCHING SD LINEAR MCS FOR ANY SIGNS OF TURNING OR DIVING SOUTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY GRADIENTEXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN IA AND WOULD SERVE AS A TRACK FOR STORMSTO MOVE ALONG BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW THOUGHSIDING FORECAST TO MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVEINTO OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTYAT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 gust front starting to light up on the southern end of that line...next half hour or so should be telling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 latest on the SD shtuff is similar per latest disco...sun popping in NW IL per obs from family...wonder how much the boundary will move back north in our neck of the woods DVN keeping an eye on it too.... . FAIRLY QUIET REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING IN WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION. WATCHING SD LINEAR MCS FOR ANY SIGNS OF TURNING OR DIVING SOUTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN IA AND WOULD SERVE AS A TRACK FOR STORMS TO MOVE ALONG BY LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW THOUGH SIDING FORECAST TO MORE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS EVE INTO OVERNIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET AND WARM ADVECTION. OTHERWISE... VFR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF ANY STORMS WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN BY LATE SATURDAY MORNING. MKX expects it to push all the way into the northern part of its CWA tonight, wouldn't mind if it stopped a bit short of that and flared up more convection in this neck of the woods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Minneapolis in line for some gusty stuff.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 MPX graphic for tonight. Showing the MCS turning towards La Crosse at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Storms have survived all the way into the LAF. Very nice. EDIT: 44mph gust at the airport, but nothing like that in my hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Storms have survived all the way into the LAF. Very nice. EDIT: 44mph gust at the airport, but nothing like that in my hood. Never doubt right moving convection making it a bit farther south than expected (or in this case, a lot further SE than anticipated). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Axis of best instability/deep moisture takes a hard right near MSP, will be interesting to see how the complex responds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Axis of best instability/deep moisture takes a hard right near MSP, will be interesting to see how the complex responds. struggling hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Whoah, 21z RAP showing activity developing south or traveling a hard right. Model is on something!?... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Axis of best instability/deep moisture takes a hard right near MSP, will be interesting to see how the complex responds. struggling hard. well there's your problem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 struggling hard. yeah...was hoping it would organize a better cold pool and be able to sustain itself some like this morning's did despite a total lack of shear. Maybe LLcoolJ will help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Well, its shrinking at least. What's left of it is looking pretty dece on the velo scan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Well the primary cell is starting to turn right, but I don't think the LLJ will help this turn into anything major. The cell will probably hold together a little while longer into WC Wisconsin, but it's any storms that develop along the warm front that we have to watch for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Storms have survived all the way into the LAF. Very nice. EDIT: 44mph gust at the airport, but nothing like that in my hood. Lucky bastard! Nothing but some wind here, no rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Whoah, 21z RAP showing activity developing south or traveling a hard right. Model is on something!?... the RAP hasn't had a clue since December and has been particularly poor at handing these waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Lucky bastard! Nothing but some wind here, no rain! 0.88" at LAF. Nice when the forecast was for zero...and we needed some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 the RAP hasn't had a clue since December and has been particularly poor at handing these waves. RAP is crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 the RAP hasn't had a clue since December and has been particularly poor at handing these waves. I figured it was smoking something, lol. NAM has it heading towards MSN and then fizzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 I figured it was smoking something, lol. NAM has it heading towards MSN and then fizzling. It would need to start turning SSE to do that, so I think something more along the lines of toward Stevens Point and then fizzling sounds about right, with some more scattered storms developing out ahead of it with the LLJ, like the HRRR seems to paint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 lol What the RAP shows isn't the MN MCS. It's development in E. IA/S. WI/N. IL as the LLJ increases this evening. Several models show this occuring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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