Brewers Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Nice NW flow setup. These always seem to have a few surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 cape numbers on mesoanalysis are suspiciously high EDIT: nm, checked mixed layer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 84/75 at 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Wouldn't at all be shocked at a nice southeast moving supercell in northeast IL later this evening with some good hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like a rainforest outside with this humidity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 809 ACUS11 KWNS 271743 SWOMCD SPC MCD 271742 MIZ000-WIZ000-ILZ000-272015- MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1268 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1242 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS WI...EXTREME NERN IL...LM...SRN UPPER MI...WRN LOWER MI. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 271742Z - 272015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...SVR POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE THROUGH AFTN OVER DISCUSSION AREA TO EXTENT THAT INITIALLY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL WI CAN GROW UPSCALE WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE. MAIN CONCERNS ARE LARGE HAIL AND SPORADIC DAMAGING GUSTS. DISCUSSION...SFC PATTERN IS RATHER SUBTLE AND FRAGMENTED ACROSS THIS AREA...WITH POCKETS OF STRONGER VERSUS WEAKER MOISTURE/MIXING AND HEATING AWAY FROM LM MARINE LAYER. MODEL FCST SOUNDINGS AND MODIFIED RAOBS SUGGEST AIR MASS ACROSS THIS REGION ESSENTIALLY HAS LOST MLCINH. SFC DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED DOWN A FEW DEG F DURING LAST 1-2 HOURS FROM PEAK VALUES AT SEVERAL STATIONS IN WI...OFFSET ENOUGH BY SFC DIABATIC HEATING TO MAINTAIN MLCAPE 1000-2000 J/KG. BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY MAXIMIZED WITHIN ABOUT 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF MOISTURE/THETAE AXIS DRAWN FROM SERN IL NNWWD ACROSS S-CENTRAL/WRN WI. WELL-MIXED SUBCLOUD LAYER WILL SUPPORT DOWNDRAFT ACCELERATION AS WELL AS MAINTENANCE TO SFC OF ANY SVR HAIL GENERATED ALOFT. VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIMIT BOUNDARY-LAYER CONVERGENCE AND HODOGRAPH SIZE. HOWEVER...DEEP SHEAR IS ENHANCED AROUND SRN RIM OF MID-UPPER PERTURBATION THAT IS EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER LS. THAT...ALONG WITH BUILDING RIDGE OVER SWRN CONUS...SHOULD MAINTAIN ENHANCED GRADIENT FLOW ALOFT FOR EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES RANGING FROM AROUND 60 KT OVER WRN WI TO AROUND 30 KT OVER WRN LM. ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/27/2013 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...APX...IWX...GRR...MQT...GRB...LOT...MKX...DLH... ARX...MPX... LAT...LON 46069010 45608712 43738543 42388590 41918708 42418906 43989077 45079114 46069010 -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 CU aren't doing anything in this area...looking less and less likely anything goes this far south/west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Looks like a rainforest outside with this humidity It does! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Haven't been model tracking but suddenly I see MI is in the slight risk now... Sup? Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Haven't been model tracking but suddenly I see MI is in the slight risk now... Sup? Sent from my HTCONE 4 Beta Low level lapse rates will be decent, 2.5-3k CAPE, and pockets of 30-40knts of shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 CU aren't doing anything in this area...looking less and less likely anything goes this far south/west Is there a cap in place or something? Maybe the lake breeze later on can set things off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 CU aren't doing anything in this area...looking less and less likely anything goes this far south/west Still pretty early. 12z SPC WRF doesn't bring anything toward Chicago until early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Still pretty early. 12z SPC WRF doesn't bring anything toward Chicago until early evening. It's early but not that early. I just think forcing is going to be a little too weak in this area for anything other than a widely scattered threat for the far NE cwa and into WI and MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 I see a few storms popping up in a higher shear environment near Madison WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Storms firing NE of Madison. Eastern WI looks like a favorable area for further development. Some of those storms may hit Geos, but will die at Alek's doorstep. Nothing out of the ordinary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Shiznit popping all over mi Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Storms firing NE of Madison. Eastern WI looks like a favorable area for further development. Some of those storms may hit Geos, but will die at Alek's doorstep. Nothing out of the ordinary. Looks like right now the storms will graze by to the north. Probably impact Racine and Milwaukee. First warning. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING WIC027-079-089-131-133-272000-/O.NEW.KMKX.SV.W.0048.130627T1915Z-130627T2000Z/BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MILWAUKEE/SULLIVAN WI215 PM CDT THU JUN 27 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SULLIVAN HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL DODGE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... NORTHERN MILWAUKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... SOUTHWESTERN OZAUKEE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... SOUTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN... NORTHEASTERN WAUKESHA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 300 PM CDT* AT 210 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HARTFORD... AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... SLINGER AROUND 220 PM CDT. JACKSON AROUND 230 PM CDT. LANNON AROUND 240 PM CDT. MENOMONEE FALLS AROUND 245 PM CDT. MEQUON AND THIENSVILLE AROUND 250 PM CDT. BROWN DEER AND RIVER HILLS AROUND 255 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE HOLYHILL...HUBERTUS...BEAR VALLEY...RICHFIELD...COLGATE...GERMANTOWN...GLENDALE...SHOREWOOD...UW-MILWAUKEE AND MILWAUKEE BRADFORD BEACH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Detroit may finally see some severe weather today... It's far from a lock though unless the storms can organize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 tons of lightning with the thumb complex...even the little cell here is producing a solid light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Watching the approaching supercell come in at the moment. Dark cumulus at the moment but not getting real dark just yet. Under a warning though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 storm beasting over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 storm beasting over me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Watching the approaching supercell come in at the moment. Dark cumulus at the moment but not getting real dark just yet. Under a warning though. good luck.. hopefully it sinks south a pube for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Nothing severe by any means but it just keeps growing and back building....unfortunately I'm stuck in a large laboratory at the moment and I can only hear muddled thunder Radar estimate says 1.23" in the past 40 min... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 CU aren't doing anything in this area...looking less and less likely anything goes this far south/west SPC liking my call and trims back southwest portion of slight risk yet again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 We're getting it good now, especially with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 We're getting it good now, especially with the rain. Hart Park FTW... nice to finally have a last min right turn south work out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 FB reports of some flash flooding around here. "water up to my knees on my street" Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 4 Beta Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Pretty legit shelf cloud on the MKE storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 27, 2013 Share Posted June 27, 2013 Should be getting it good from bowme to the lake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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