Geos Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Update from ARX. 000FXUS63 KARX 260210AFDARXAREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI910 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 910 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013CONDITIONS ARE QUIET AT THE MOMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ASLEAD MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAME IN AND WEAKENED THISAFTERNOON. THE NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INITIATEACROSS WESTERN IOWA ALONG THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND AHEADOF THE MAIN MID LEVEL TROUGH WHICH IS CURRENTLY RESPONSIBLE FORSTORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS. AS THE LOWLEVEL JET STRENGTHENS ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA OVERNIGHT AND THE TROUGHPROPAGATES EASTWARD...EXPECT THAT CONVECTION WILL BECOME MOREWIDESPREAD...PARTICULARLY IN NORTHEAST IOWA AND SOUTHWESTWISCONSIN AROUND AND AFTER MIDNIGHT. A WEAK WIND FIELD COMBININGWITH A HIGHLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LEAD TO SOME SLOW MOVINGTHUNDERSTORMS THAT PRODUCE SOME HIGH RAINFALL RATES. THE QUESTIONIS WHETHER THESE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS WILL MAKE IT INTONORTHEAST IOWA/SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN AS THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAPKEEP THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT FURTHER SOUTH. GIVENTHE ALREADY SATURATED GROUND/RIVER CONDITIONS ACROSS THISREGION...FLASH FLOODING STILL APPEARS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY INAREAS THAT HAVE BEEN HIT HARD WITH HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PASTWEEK. CONSIDERED REMOVING THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE WATCH ACROSSSOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND CENTRAL WISCONSIN...BUT CAN NOT COMPLETELYRULE OUT THE CHANCES FOR SOME SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IN THISREGION THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING.AS FOR OTHER SEVERE POSSIBILITIES...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDSSTILL LOOK POSSIBLE DUE TO THE HIGH INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...WINDSHEAR IS WEAK AND WOULD KEEP THE STORM MODE MAINLY AS PULSETHUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF AN MCS RUNNING ALONG THENOSE OF THE LLJ OVERNIGHT. I think the LLJ has activated across north central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Here are the pics. Taken by my mom. Trees down. That blue thing to the right is a large umbrella that was blown over there from the public pool that you see behind the fence. munster1.jpg Slight damage to high school munster2.jpg Power pole leaning near high school munster3.jpg Tree and other branches down munster4.jpg Power poles down in background. You only see a few of the 8+ that were blown down. munster5.jpg Supposedly lots of trees/large branches down on the more residential streets. Nice damage pics. Love it when the AWx moms pitch in. My location essentially missed out on all convection this round, a few light showers since Friday but pretty much anything severe was north in Ottawa/Montreal or south in OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Update from ARX. I think the LLJ has activated across north central Iowa. is this the beginning of what's supposed to organize and slide SE into IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Storms out in central Iowa have had tops over 47kft. Should continue to see that area increase in storms and organize into a massive complex. Lots of instability to feed off of downstream as well. Gon git interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 is this the beginning of what's supposed to organize and slide SE into IL? Yeah this should be the initiation stage. CAPE values are approaching 5000 j/kg just downstream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Another new cell very quickly going up just west of Cedar Rapids with a top over 40kft. Also a new svr watch for central Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Line moving into Ohio trying to strengthen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Another new cell very quickly going up just west of Cedar Rapids with a top over 40kft. Also a new svr watch for central Iowa. NW mizzu unzipping too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Iowa cells look to be heading due east right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Storm west of Cedar Rapids now well over 50kft and has weak mid-level rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Storm west of Cedar Rapids now well over 50kft and has weak mid-level rotation. now svr warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 now svr warned Man that thing went up quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like an LES plume hitting north of South Haven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Part of the line just to my northwest went warned. Figures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like an LES plume hitting north of South Haven Lol, that would be the ultimate LES plume! --- That cell by CID is on steroids or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 CMI getting drilled tonight. House rattling boomers.got one on video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdudemike Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Gotta wonder how far south tomorrow's severe threat may be pushed due to the large area of ongoing storms right now and subsequent morning debris clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 not sure how these storms in iowa are going to evolve as we go through the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Just went under a warning. I consider it a minor miracle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Looks like an LES plume hitting north of South Haven Been a nice light show and some much needed rains here. Hopefully it can continue for a while longer. Got 1.13 yesterday which is the biggest single day amount here since April 11th. June total was at 1.67 ( only 1.64 in May ) up till yesterday as well. So yeah bring it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Just went under a warning. I consider it a minor miracle. Looks like i'll catch the northern edge of the storm but if nothing else, there's a ton of lightning with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 New day 1 with highest probs (5% Tornado/30% Wind/15% Hail) in sw IN/se IL/w KY. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1229 AM CDT WED JUN 26 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST TODAY AS ANTICYCLONE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTENSIFIES. FURTHER EAST...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY REGIONS. WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID AND UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...CREATING A COMPLEX SCENARIO FOR LATER SEVERE POTENTIAL. ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY TOWARD THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS... THE DEVELOPMENT/EVOLUTION OF SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON WILL DEPEND ON ONGOING CONVECTION EARLY THIS MORNING. A WEAKENING STORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING IN THE VICINITY OF THE MID-MS VALLEY/CNTRL IL BY 12Z THIS MORNING...AND SEVERAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS CONVECTION. A REMNANT MCV ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRIOR CONVECTION MAY INTERACT WITH THESE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AFTER DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AND AN UPTICK IN STORM DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED IN THE VICINITY OF SRN IL/SW IND/WRN KY. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY. ADDITIONALLY...DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR INITIALLY A FEW SUPERCELLS WHERE GREATEST DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED /LOWER OH VALLEY/...BEFORE QUICKLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS. ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ONE LIMITING FACTOR MAY BE THE RESULT OF BUILDING WRN RIDGE/NW FLOW REGIME...WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HINDER MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT INSTABILITY/SHEAR PARAMETERS WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WITH STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL POSSIBLE AS TRANSITION TO AN MCS OCCURS. THIS COMPLEX WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS THE OHIO AND TN VALLEY REGION AND LIKELY PERSIST TOWARD THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 Nice bowing MCS developing NW of the QC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Nice bowing MCS developing NW of the QC. Not good for QC since they got raped by the derecho on Monday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 getting some nice training. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Awakened to a flash flood warning here in Madison. It says we've had 1-1.5 inches of rain in the last hour, with another 1-3 still to come. Certainly is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 I didn't get a drop of rain overnight while areas 30 miles to the south and west are getting hammered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 getting some nice training. Nice. Pump is primed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Decent rainstorm and lightning show. The training line of storms pushed barely north and east of here as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 26, 2013 Share Posted June 26, 2013 Got little sleep last night due to the constant thunder and lightning. But didn't get a drop of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.