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June 21-27 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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LOT...

 

MCV MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS UPDATE CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE EAST-
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA PER GOES SATELLITE EXTRAPOLATION.
EXPECTATION IS THAT THIS CIRCULATION WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
EAST/SOUTHEAST COUNTIES BY 10 PM CDT. CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUES
TO BUBBLE OVER LAKE MICHIGAN/NORTHWEST INDIANA AND OVER THE SOUTH
END OF THE LAKE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS AS THE
MCV COMPLETES ITS TRANSIT OF THE AREA BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. SUBSIDENCE/STABILIZATION IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF
THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY SUPPRESS NEW DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PART OF THE NRN IL CWA FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS...AND
THEREFORE AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SPC HAVE DECIDED TO REMOVE
LASALLE...KENDALL...GRUNDY AND WILL COUNTIES FROM SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363.

WHILE PREVIOUS CONVECTION HAS STABILIZED LOW LEVELS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF OUR CWA COUNTIES IN 363...INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL JET AS NOTED IN VWP/S TO OUR WEST/SOUTHWEST HAS RESULTED IN
DEVELOPMENT OF NEW DEEP/STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN IL AND
THESE STORMS MAY PERSIST ABOVE COLD POOL AND MAINTAIN A SEVERE
THREAT INTO THE PONTIAC/KANKAKEE AREAS IN ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS.

LOOKING FARTHER WEST...MID-LEVEL SHORT WAVE ACROSS THE MID-MISSOURI
VALLEY WAS NOTED IN GOES VAPOR IMAGERY. LAST VIS IMAGES OF THE
EVENING SHOW ACCAS FIELD OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL IA...WITH 3000-4000
J/KG OF MUCAPE INDICATED PER SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS. CONVECTION
ALLOWING MODELS INCLUDING WRF-NMM AND HRRR RUNS CONTINUE TO IMPLY
THAT THE IA/WESTERN IL AREA WILL BECOME/REMAIN ACTIVE OVERNIGHT...
WITH ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS POTENTIALLY AFFECTING PARTS OF
THE CWA INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. 23Z HRRR RUN SEEMS TO HAVE A
REASONABLE HANDLE ON THIS SCENARIO...WITH ACTIVITY CURRENTLY
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN/CENTRAL IL PERHAPS AFFECTING OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES THROUGH 05-07Z...THEN DEPICTING DEVELOPMENT OVER
CENTRAL/EASTERN IA SPREADING ACROSS NRN IL DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS.
HEAVY RAINFALL/SEVERE RISK CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH WARM/MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS. 
 

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;) It's June, we're all greedy

 

 

I really should have grabbed a video, you all would have laughed. It was very lame and didn't even manage to wet the surfaces under the trees in my courtyard. Kids never even stopped playing at the park.  But I digress, you win some and you lose some...severe is hit and miss. 

 

It would have been nice to end up under a training MCS during this pattern but that doesn't appear to be in the cards.

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Here is Peoria I saw some unbelievable flash flooding the other night with those training storms. My neighbor's 5 inch rain gauge was overflowing and he had a lot of water in his basement because their sump pump couldn't keep up.

 

 

You look good for another round tonight.

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This is stronger than Monday night's 50 mph report from the IWX office.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA1002 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON.....DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....            ..REMARKS..1001 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 N NORTH WEBSTER       41.36N  85.70W06/25/2013  E65 MPH          KOSCIUSKO          IN   NWS OFFICE
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New watch being considered for IL/IN.

 

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1236
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0920 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL...MUCH OF IN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363...

   VALID 260220Z - 260345Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 363
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LARGE HAIL THREAT MAY BE DEVELOPING OVER IL AS STORMS
   REGENERATE ABOVE SURFACE COLD POOL...AND THEN TRAIN EWD /WHERE A
   HEAVY RAIN THREAT IS POSSIBLE...REFER TO WPC GUIDANCE/. NEW WW MAY
   BE NEEDED OVER PORTIONS OF IL AND IND.

   OVER SRN IN...STRONG/SEVERE GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING
   EDGE OF A MULTICELL LINE SEGMENT. OVER NRN IN...LINE OF STORMS WILL
   CONTINUE PROPAGATING SWD DURING THE NIGHT...AND MAY ALSO POSE
   MARGINAL DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...AT 0210Z...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDED NWWD FROM SRN
   IN INTO CNTRL/WRN IL. A SMALL LINE SEGMENT LOCATED AT THE LEADING
   EDGE OF THE COLD POOL IN SRN IN IS MOVING INTO A WARM/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIRMASS WHICH IS AIDING IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY.
   THIS MAY SUPPORT A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FARTHER W OVER WRN/CNTRL IL...50 KT LOW-LEVEL
   JET CENTERED OVER THE GREAT PLAINS IS VEERING INTO THE REMNANT
   SURFACE COLD POOL...AND IS AIDING IN REGENERATION OF STORMS. HIGH
   THETA-E AIRMASS BEING LIFTED OVER THE COLD POOL IS CONTRIBUTING TO
   MUCAPE VALUES AOA 2000 J/KG...AND WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR NEAR 30
   KT...WILL SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION AND A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
   THIS AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A NEW WW.

   ..GARNER.. 06/26/2013

 

 

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1237
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0944 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN IA...NERN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

   VALID 260244Z - 260415Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL/ERN IA
   AND NRN MO TONIGHT. STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...A 30-50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS NEWD FROM OK/KS INTO THE
   MID MS VALLEY AREA TONIGHT. CONVERGENCE AND WAA LOCATED IN THE EXIT
   REGION OF THE LLJ COMBINED WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL YIELD
   AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN
   IA INTO NRN MO...WITH COOLING CLOUD TOPS OVER CNTRL IA POSSIBLY
   SIGNALING AN AREA OF INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. VEERING DEEP-LAYER WIND
   PROFILES ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAA REGIME WILL SUPPORT STORM
   ORGANIZATION...PERHAPS IN THE FORM OF A FEW SUPERCELLS
   INITIALLY...WITH A TRANSITION TO UPSCALE GROWTH/MCS DEVELOPMENT
   LATER IN THE NIGHT. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
   TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A WW.

 

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Prelim looks like a large watch across IA/MO/IL/IN.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 368

   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

   950 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013

   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

   * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

     EASTERN IOWA

     CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS

     WESTERN INDIANA

     FAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI

   * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 950 PM

     UNTIL 500 AM CDT.

   * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

     NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL

       EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

     SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 75

       MPH POSSIBLE

   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST

   OF CEDAR RAPIDS IOWA TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF TERRE HAUTE

   INDIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE

   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

   PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

   &&

   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 362...WW 363...WW 364...WW 365...WW 366...WW 367...

   DISCUSSION...SCTD STRONG TO SVR TSTMS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FORMING

   ATOP SHALLOW COOL DOME OVER CNTRL/NRN IL AND WRN IND...IN

   WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT AREA ASSOCIATED WITH STRENGTHENING/VEERING

   LLJ. STRONG...ELEVATED THETA-E ADVECTION AND INCREASING UPR

   DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF UPR IMPULSE NOW AMPLIFYING OVER THE MID/LWR MO

   VLY SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WINDS FROM

   SUSTAINED STORMS...STORM CLUSTERS...AND POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS.

   FARTHER W...ADDITIONAL TSTMS MAY FORM LATER TNGT/EARLY WED IN CNTRL

   IA...CLOSER TO UPR TROUGH AXIS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP

   ESE OR SEWD...POSING A RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND WIND OVER ERN IA AS THE

   STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LARGER-SCALE CLUSTER.

 

 

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