MidwestChaser Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Humid as crap here. Dewpoint is 75 imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Not sure if we will tap storms tonight or not. Filtered sun currently, 88/73 here, definitely juicy for something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 4km NAM shows that the Michiana and Chicago areas will get active with storms around 03z or 04z.(10PM to 11PM central. ) Other mesoscale models (HRW-ARW-Eastern) show some activity popping around Chicago at 00z (7pm central) with a second complex at 06z to 09z.(1am to 4am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 things starting to look a little bubbly in eastern iowa and western IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Most of Ohio might see a watch soon. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1220 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0204 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OH...CENTRAL/WRN PA...NRN PANHANDLE OF WV. CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 251904Z - 252100Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...POTENTIAL IS INCREASING ACROSS DISCUSSION AREA FOR DAMAGING GUSTS AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL...AS CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE GENERALLY EWD INTO DESTABILIZING AIR MASS. DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATED THREE PRIMARY BOUNDARIES ACROSS THIS REGION THAT MAY FOCUS BOUNDS OF SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH ACTIVITY ALSO IS DEVELOPING IN WARM SECTOR REMOVED FROM THESE... 1. SWRN LE AND NWRN OH BETWEEN TOL-FDY...EXTENDING WSWWD OVER NRN INDIANA. THIS QUASISTATIONARY FEATURE IS LEFT OVER FROM EXTINCT EARLY MORNING MCS...BUT APPEARS TO HAVE SPAWNED A FEW TSTMS OVER NWRN OH AND WRN LE. 2. EXTENDING WNWWD FROM ONGOING SERN PA CONVECTION TO JUST S DUJ TO NERN CORNER OF OH WHERE IT INTERSECTS... 3. LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY GENERALLY LOCATED JUST INLAND FROM LE SHORELINE. S OF THESE FEATURES...BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME ESSENTIALLY UNINHIBITED FOR DEEP CONVECTION...WITH DIABATIC HEATING AND SFC DEW POINTS UPPER 60S TO 70S F CONTRIBUTING TO MLCAPE GENERALLY IN 2000-3000 J/KG RANGE. AS SUCH...AND WITH ADDITIONAL INSOLATION...INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE IS LIKELY. BUOYANCY SHOULD REMAIN HIGHEST IN PRECONVECTIVE AIR MASS...NEAR PRIMARY SFC MOIST AXIS DRAWN FROM CVG AREA NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL/NERN OH. WLYS NEAR SFC LIMIT CONVERGENCE...AS WELL AS MOST MEASURES OF VERTICAL SHEAR. NONETHELESS...NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF LOW-MIDDLE TROPOSPHERIC WINDS INDICATES SOME POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED COLD-POOL RELATED WIND DAMAGE AND SMALL BOWS...SHOULD INITIAL MULTICELL MODES AGGREGATE UPSCALE. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ACCORDINGLY WILL BE MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WW. ..EDWARDS/KERR.. 06/25/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 A lot of debris clouds around, but the temperature is still rising up. Might be able to pop some cumulus later.\ That boundary layer going to wash out as the sun works the atmosphere over? Edit: Sun is out almost full blast now. Up to 80°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Haven't seen the sun all day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 starting to see some more robust developement with storms well south of I80. still not seeing much focus for development further north and may have to wait on the llj later this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 starting to see some more robust developement with storms well south of I80. still not seeing much focus for development further north and may have to wait on the llj later this evening. yeah....looks like better shear down there ATM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Heres the watch for most of Ohio. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 362 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 340 PM EDT TUE JUN 25 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN MARYLAND NORTHERN AND CENTRAL OHIO WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LAKE ERIE * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM 340 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES EAST OF LATROBE PENNSYLVANIA TO 65 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DAYTON OHIO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 361... DISCUSSION...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW WELL UNDERWAY IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE BOUNDARY LAYER INSTABILITY. CONSOLIDATING COLD POOLS MAY CONTRIBUTE TO FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH...AND THE EVOLUTION OF ONE OR TWO SMALL STORM CLUSTERS ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. EAST SOUTHEASTWARD MOTION WILL BE ENHANCED BY A BELT OF 20-30 KT WESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Of course the 12z suite does a bit of a 180 for tomorrow with them showing a less organized trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 NE Iowa starting to get agitated a bit now too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 minor circulation by Havana IL? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New t-storm watch for IL/IN until 11pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Up to 86/71 now here. Scattered out pretty nicely as well. Although doesn't look like much of a focus for convection locally atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 363 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 305 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS NORTHERN INDIANA NORTHWEST OHIO * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 305 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES WEST OF PEORIA ILLINOIS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 361...WW 362... DISCUSSION...STORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOW UNDERWAY ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS... PERHAPS AIDED BY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING EAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. IN THE PRESENCE OF THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY FAIRLY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LARGE CAPE...DEEP LAYER WESTERLY FLOW AND VERTICAL SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THE UPSCALE GROWTH FROM SUPERCELLS TO AN INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED...EASTWARD ADVANCING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Not sure if you guys heard about this, but there has been a fatality in the tornado that hit Muscatine yesterday afternoon. http://t.co/zJZliJJDSE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 starting to see some more robust developement with storms well south of I80. still not seeing much focus for development further north and may have to wait on the llj later this evening. Where do you think the LLJ will activate tonight initially? NE IA again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Where do you think the LLJ will activate tonight initially? NE IA again? tough call, models have been placing the nose of the jet further east than nights past right over our area but that could clearly change depending on this afternoon and early evening action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 83/77 at DKB. 84/76 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 83/77 at DKB. 84/76 here. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MN...NRN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252015Z - 252245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST 7-KM CAPPI DATA INDICATE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ALONG AN AGGREGATE SYNOPTIC FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING FROM S-CNTRL MN ESEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTING BACKGROUND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A MODEST...20-25-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE MODEST...SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ASCENT BREEDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SUSTENANCE OF STRONG/DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP HIGH THETA-E IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AMIDST SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SVR WINDS MAY ALSO BE OF CONCERN NEAR/S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE BASED CLOSER TO THE SFC. THIS COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SUSTAINED...SVR CONVECTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 83/77 at DKB. 84/76 here. 82/77 at FEP and 78/77 at EFT too. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 feels like shiit. gold bond emergency edit: 88 bank clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 83/77 at DKB. 84/76 here. Brutal. Corn crop already sweating! About 80°/70° here. Completely overcast now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 86/75. Kill me now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 That cell south of Bloomington looked like it was moving due east, now taking on a more northeast run. LOT popped a severe thunderstorm until 10PM. Soon muggy, 86/74 here. Once that corn matures it really sweats, today is a prime example. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Oh well, on to the next event that won't arrive for another 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 LOT dewpoint plot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I wonder if the outflow from the storms in central IL will kick off a nice line..... shear is expanding and "improving" a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1222 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0315 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN MN...NRN IA...NRN IL...SRN WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 252015Z - 252245Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR POTENTIAL THIS AFTERNOON. THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...THE LATEST 7-KM CAPPI DATA INDICATE AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION ALONG AN AGGREGATE SYNOPTIC FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LYING FROM S-CNTRL MN ESEWD TO NEAR CHICAGO. LOW-LEVEL ASCENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IS AUGMENTING BACKGROUND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A MODEST...20-25-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX. IN THE NEAR TERM...THE MODEST...SHALLOW NATURE OF THE ASCENT BREEDS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SUSTENANCE OF STRONG/DEEP CONVECTION INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. HOWEVER...GIVEN STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP HIGH THETA-E IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-3000 J/KG ARE COMMON ACROSS THE AREA AMIDST SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES. A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS THE REGION WITH THIS ACTIVITY...AND SVR WINDS MAY ALSO BE OF CONCERN NEAR/S OF THE BOUNDARY WHERE EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS ARE BASED CLOSER TO THE SFC. THIS COULD REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS OR SO IF CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST A GREATER LIKELIHOOD OF SUSTAINED...SVR CONVECTION. looks like another swing and a miss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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