Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Can see the outline of the sun already shining through the clouds. Temp on the way up. Hearing several more MCS's are possible before the break at the end of the week for our subforum. Edit: Flash flood watch extended east. Still a lot of outages after yesterday's bow line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I see I went from just out of the slight risk to being in the 30% wind area. Could be a fun 2 days around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Storms are popping up all over SEMI, sitting at 80/68 currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Filtered sun.... 79/71 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Edit: Flash flood watch extended east. 12z 4km NAM really backbuilds convection over the area for a large portion of the night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 MUCAPE hitting 4k in far SW portions of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New day 2 dropped the hatched area. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1225 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID/UPPER-MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WEST AS AN ANTICYCLONE STRENGTHENS NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS. IN RESPONSE...A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WILL SHIFT EWD AND EVENTUALLY SEWD. A SHORTWAVE IMPULSE OVER NWRN ONTARIO WILL PROGRESS INTO SRN QUEBEC. A SERIES OF CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED IMPULSES SHOULD MOVE EWD FROM PARTS OF THE MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST. ...MID/UPPER-MS VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST... A BROAD AREA OF AT LEAST SEMI-ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK IS EVIDENT...WITH CONCENTRATED REPORT SWATHS LIKELY MODULATED BY THE IMPACT OF D1 CONVECTION AND SUBSEQUENT INFLUENCE OF REMNANT MCV/S ON BOTH THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT. ON THE LARGE-SCALE...WITH A VEERED LLJ RELATIVE TO RECENT DAYS FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED WITHIN A WAA REGIME. POCKETS OF STRONG DOWNSTREAM INSOLATION SHOULD RESULT IN SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY INTENSIFYING WITH AT LEAST SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR MULTICELL CLUSTERS...YIELDING RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL. THE MOST VOLATILE THERMODYNAMIC/KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT WILL PROBABLY BE CENTERED FROM THE MID-MS TO LOWER OH VALLEY. WITH A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FLOW /BECOMING NWLY/ AND SUSTENANCE OF THE LLJ...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. WARMING MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL WEAKEN LAPSE RATES...BUT VERY WARM/MOIST MIXED-LAYER PARCELS SHOULD STILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. INITIAL SUPERCELLS WOULD BE CAPABLE OF ALL SEVERE HAZARDS. HOWEVER...GIVEN WINDS LARGELY SLACKENING WITH HEIGHT FROM THE MID TO UPPER-LEVELS...SETUP SHOULD YIELD UPSCALE GROWTH INTO AN MCS BY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING. POTENTIAL DOES EXIST FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS RESULTING IN A PREDOMINANT SEVERE WIND THREAT. ACTIVITY SHOULD PERSIST E/SEWD TOWARDS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND TN VALLEY WITH DIMINISHING DAMAGING WIND RISK OVERNIGHT. ..GRAMS.. 06/25/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 12z 4km NAM really backbuilds convection over the area for a large portion of the night. Especially for LakeCook Rd. on southward. Don't need 2-3" though up here like it's showing! RPM depicts a line of storms moving into Chicago just in time for rush hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New day 2 dropped the hatched area. Ontario dropped out of the slight risk as I expected... oh well. Hopefully the pattern picks up again into July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Still nice and cloudy out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 83/72 now...roughly east of the Mississippi River throughout IL looks pretty primed...minus city proper in Chitown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Sun is trying to break through. Up to 76°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1219 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1243 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL/NERN MO...A LARGE PART OF IL...PARTS OF FAR ERN IA...PARTS OF FAR WRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 251743Z - 252015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND MAY PRODUCE SVR WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE. DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SFC MESOANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS A COUPLE OF SFC FEATURES THAT WILL POTENTIALLY SERVE AS FOCI FOR INITIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON: /1/ AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARCING FROM NRN IL INTO E-CNTRL IA DEPOSITED BY A CONVECTIVE CLUSTER WHICH MOVED ACROSS THAT GENERAL AREA EARLIER TODAY...AND /2/ A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE OVER THE FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYERED CONVECTIVE CLOUD DEBRIS EXTENDING APPROXIMATELY W/E THROUGH CNTRL IL AND NE/SW IN NERN/CNTRL MO. INITIAL CELL DEVELOPMENT HAS ALREADY BEEN NOTED IN LOGAN COUNTY IL INVOF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE. MODIFICATIONS TO THE ILX 12Z RAOB FOR SFC CONDITIONS S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SUGGEST MLCAPE HAS INCREASED TO AROUND 3000-3500 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE MLCINH. CONTINUED DIABATIC SFC HEATING AMIDST RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE -- E.G. LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIO AROUND 16.5 G/KG PER 12Z ILX RAOB -- BENEATH THE NEWD EXTENT OF AN EML FEATURING 7-8-C/KM MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD YIELD A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONVECTION WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE WEAK WAA ACCOMPANYING A 20-30-KT LOW-LEVEL JET MAX PERSISTS. THE AFOREMENTIONED DEGREE OF BUOYANCY SHOULD SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS...CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS GUSTS AND SVR HAIL. WITH 25-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR -- HIGHEST N OF INTERSTATE 70 -- A FEW ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES/SMALL CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS MAY ENSUE. THERE IS SOME QUESTION REGARDING THE ANTICIPATED COVERAGE OF SVR CONVECTION...HOWEVER...AS DEEP-LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SVR TSTM WATCH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New meso discussion for possible watch in central IL into southern part of LOT. Sun trying to stay out here but clouds hanging around. Temp is only 80 but feels damn hot when the sun is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Sun trying to peak out after the rain here, dropped to 76/68 popped back to 80/71 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 nice kink in streamlines SW of LaSalle County...keeping my out there once/if the mizzu wave moves through that area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 That is one nasty heavy rain event for here on the 12z 4km NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 MDW managed to fight up to 82/71 despite at best filtered sun. Prominent boundary still well south of the area but trying to wash/lift north. If things go as quick as some guidance is suggesting, heavy rain threat could be shifted further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 76/71 here now. Feels like Florida outside. Some breaks around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 cells poppin' south and west of Peoria now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 IZZI... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1259 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...100 PM CDTCOMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WITHPOTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH PRIMARY THREAT BEINGTRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS.REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT AND THEN RE-ENFORCED BYMORNING CONVECTION LIES FROM ROUGHLY ALONG I-80 EARLY THISAFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY IS MOST EVIDENT IN VISIBLE SATELLITEIMAGERY AS AN AREA OF FESTERING AND MORE PROMINENT CUMULUS BUBBLINGUP...EVEN BENEATH PRETTY EXTENSIVE (BUT FADING) CIRRUS SHIELD.DEVELOPING. SFC OBS INDICATE THAT AIR MASS NORTH OF THE OUTFLOWBOUNDARY IS RECOVERING VERY QUICKLY WITH TEMPS/DEWPOINTS RAPIDLYRISING AND WINDS VEERING AROUND TO S/SW AND BEGINNING TO GUST.SHORTWAVE TROUGH WE`RE WATCHING CLOSELY AS A POTENTIAL IMPETUS FORSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON IS OVER EASTERN IA/MO AND PUSHING EASTWARD.WHILE NOT SEEING MUCH INDICATION OF CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVEREASTERN IA ON VSBL IMAGERY WITHIN THE MASS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDINESSAT THIS TIME...THE ASCENT NEAR AND DOWNSTREAM FROM THIS SHORTWAVELOOKS LIKELY TO ASSIST IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON OVERNORTHERN OR CENTRAL ILLINOIS. CURRENT SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THATTHE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WASHING OUT NEAR I-80 COULD SERVE AS A FOCALPOINT FOR DEVELOPMENT...MOST LIKELY FROM I-80 OR I-88 SOUTHWARD.FARTHER NORTH...WHILE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS IS RECOVERINGQUICKLY...LACK OF OBVIOUS FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH WEAKERMID LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS RAISES DOUBTS ABOUTTHE LIKELIHOOD OF INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON.STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS (MLCAPES >3000 J/KG) ALONG WITH FAIRLYSTRONG MID LEVEL FLOW (40-50KT @ 6KM) AHEAD OF THE EASTERN IOWASHORT WAVE SHOULD ALLOW FOR SUSTAINED CONVECTION TO POTENTIALLYBECOME SEVERE WITH BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. UNCERTAINTIESREMAIN ON COVERAGE...BUT SHOULD STORMS CONGEAL INTO A LINE THENDAMAGING WINDS WOULD POSE A BIGGER THREAT...PARTICULARLYSOUTHEASTERN CWA INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA.WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR SATELLITE/RADAR TRENDS FOR MORE IMMINENTSIGNS OF ROBUST CONVECTIVE INITIATION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Already getting a good instability gradient setting up from southeast MN/northeast IA into Chi metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 IZZI... not sounding too hot for those of us up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 84/73 now...that boundary IZZI and Alek was referring to has to be just north or overhead now...winds S SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 you feeling that pooling RCNYILWX? just got extremely oppressive out.... in my non expert opinion I could see the boundary making I88 or further depending on washing out aspect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 wow....Surface CAPES crackin' 4500 just west of and into Will County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 wow....Surface CAPES crackin' 4500 just west of and into Will County was it the RAP that was showing 5k last night? maybe it wasn't trash for once. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Looks like the boundary is lifting northward. - if the wind direction is any indication of where it is. Up to 79° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 was it the RAP that was showing 5k last night? maybe it wasn't trash for once. Yep the 0z RAP had that but earlier in the day. Still not far off for max today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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