snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New day 2 likes IN/OH. DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1210 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE OH VALLEY... ..MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY WEDNESDAY AS PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH TOPS THE CNTRL U.S. RIDGE AND DIGS SEWD. BY 18Z THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM CNTRL WI SWD ACROSS IL...WITH SUBSEQUENT MOVEMENT INTO OH BY 27/12Z. IN RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE VEERED LLJ SHOULD TRANSLATE ACROSS MO INTO IND BY AFTERNOON. NET RESULT IS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE ACROSS IL/IND AS 500MB FLOW INCREASES TO 40-45KT...MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE OF DISCRETE SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. EARLY IN THE PERIOD A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION ZONE ACROSS SERN MN/NERN IA...EWD ALONG THE WI/IL BORDER INTO SRN MI. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE AN EXTENSION OF LATE DAY1 CONVECTION ALONG WITH NEW DEVELOPMENT DUE TO FOCUSED UVV ACROSS THIS REGION. LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS COULD BE NOTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY BUT EARLY MORNING INSTABILITY MAY BE REDUCED SOMEWHAT AS CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT SUNSHINE OVER WI/MI. HOWEVER...STRONG HEATING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WITHIN STRONGLY VEERED DEEP LAYER FLOW. BY MID AFTERNOON SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM SUFFICIENTLY FOR SFC-BASED CONVECTION AND SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF NE-SW ORIENTED CONFLUENCE ZONE OVER IL. EXTREME INSTABILITY...SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 4000-5000 J/KG...WITH SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 35-40KT SHOULD ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUPERCELLS. VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY. DESPITE THE STRONGLY VEERED FLOW REGIME DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD IN THE LOWER 70S AND A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO BE NOTED. A FEW SUPERCELLS AND MULTIPLE THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS SHOULD ADVANCE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD IN ASSOCIATION WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. ACTIVITY COULD EASILY ADVANCE INTO WRN PA BY SUNRISE THURSDAY AS LLJ SHIFTS INTO THIS REGION. ..DARROW.. 06/25/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Wednesday is beginning to look like a moderate risk, given the expectation of convective initiation, excessive instability and adequate shear. If we can get some more directional shear throughout the profile (there already is a decent amount), then tornado possibilities will accordingly rise. Definitely a solid NW flow setup looking to be developing here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Nice line starting to form in southern WI. Cells firing off further east towards the southwest MKE metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Nice line starting to form in southern WI. Cells firing off further east towards the southwest MKE metro. cells poppin' off south of the lake (prolly just champagne droplets seeding the clouds downwind) and random little buggers poppin' west of 39....looks like a soaker of a night for the WI/IL border on tap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Wednesday is beginning to look like a moderate risk, given the expectation of convective initiation, excessive instability and adequate shear. If we can get some more directional shear throughout the profile (there already is a decent amount), then tornado possibilities will accordingly rise. Definitely a solid NW flow setup looking to be developing here. Moderate Risk? Which area do you think? Illinois? To answer my own question here... the SREF shows 4000 CAPE and 35 knots of shear near St. Louis and western Illinois. You would tend to think that a 30% or 45%(moderate) would be in that area, if that level of outlook exists. edit(again.) Dang. should have read 05z SPC outlook (Day 2) (for Wednesday) an hour ago, before posting this question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 update from LOT... . NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE MID TO LATE IN THEAFTERNOON TUESDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING. MODERATE TO STRONG ANDWEAKLY CAPPED INSTABILITY IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY INTHE AFTERNOON...BUT THE BEST CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIONWILL BE LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLYOVER CENTRAL KANSAS MOVES OVER THE AREA. CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLEFOR ANOTHER FORWARD PROPAGATING COMPLEX SIMILAR TO MONDAY AFTERNOONSTORMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 cells poppin' off south of the lake (prolly just champagne droplets seeding the clouds downwind) and random little buggers poppin' west of 39....looks like a soaker of a night for the WI/IL border on tap If it's anything like Saturday night, it's going to be a hard rain later on. Milwaukee into Lake County look to be in line for this. 1.5"-2" per hour rainfall rates coming out of Grant, Lafayette, and Iowa Counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Looks like SPC isn't confident on initiation further west tomorrow, for good reason with the warm nose at H7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Without power since 329pm on 4g phone network. Holy smokes at this thing. Reports seem to indicate we had a spin up tornado about half a mile to my northwest. The wind was intense. Dont want anymore.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Indiana looking very interesting for Wed. Strong mid levels blasting in from the northwest overtop a nice southerly flow at the surface, along with plenty of instability. As long as morning leftovers don't mess the setup up too much it could be a big day for far eastern IL and almost all of IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Indiana looking very interesting for Wed. Strong mid levels blasting in from the northwest overtop a nice southerly flow at the surface, along with plenty of instability. As long as morning leftovers don't mess the setup up too much it could be a big day for far eastern IL and almost all of IN. Yeah, given that the prevailing flow/storm motion should be more easterly today as opposed to southeasterly, that should allow at least some areas to remain relatively untouched for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Indiana looking very interesting for Wed. Strong mid levels blasting in from the northwest overtop a nice southerly flow at the surface, along with plenty of instability. As long as morning leftovers don't mess the setup up too much it could be a big day for far eastern IL and almost all of IN. Wednesday afternoon, the GFS has 79 dew points south of St. Louis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Wednesday afternoon, the GFS has 79 dew points south of St. Louis. Probably overdone, but if today is any indication, mid 70s dews are doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The GFS had dew points too high for a lot of situations last summer, but they fixed the computer code last summer (or something like that). I still wouldn't be surprised if the GFS predicted 5500 J/kg CAPE verifies in SE Missouri that day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 given morning convection, it's going to a boundary party across northern IL and southern WI later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 DTX on Wed VERY ACTIVE SUMMER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON WEDNESDAY. MIDLEVELTROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN AT 25.00Z WILL CUT THROUGH/SHEAR OFF THERIDGE STRUCTURE IN THE CENTER OF THE CONTINENT. THE TROUGH ANDCOLLECTION OF VORTICITY ENERGY BLOCKED UP BEHIND IT WILL SLIDETHROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.A LOW TO MIDLEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO BE AMPLIFYINGIMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM AS IT ARRIVES. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE WITHTHIS FEATURE GIVEN VERY GOOD CONVERGENCE/WAA/JET STREAM CONTINUITY.VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE TO KNOW EXACTLY WHAT WILL BE GOING ON AT THESTART OF THE PERIOD...BUT ANOTHER EASY CALL FOR HIGH CHANCE POPSSOME 30 TO 40 HOURS OUT. THE SOUNDING IS CAPPED FOR SFC BASEDCONVECTION DURING THE MORNING...TRANSITIONING TO WEAKLY CAPPED BYTHE AFTERNOON. PATTERN PERSISTENCE AND NOTABLY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSERATES SUGGESTS THAT MLCAPES WILL BE NORTH OF 1500 J/KG...EITHER OVERTHE SOUTHERN CWA OR AVAILABLE FOR INGEST IMMEDIATE SOUTH. 0-6KM BULKSHEAR PROGS ARE NOW ADVERTISING OVER 40 KNOTS DURING THE DAYTIMECOURTESY OF ANOTHER DYING LOW LEVEL JETLET. WHAT MAY BE THE MOSTIMPORTANT OF ALL IS THAT MODELS ARE COMING INTO AGREEMENT WITH ASECONDARY WARM FRONT FEATURE LIFTING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGANDURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SPIKE IN SRHVALUES IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF IT. NWP IS DEPICTING STRONGLYBACKED FLOW OVER SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN AS WELL AS A TRIPLE POINTRELEASING OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN BETWEEN THE PEAK DIURNAL PERIOD18-21Z. THESE ARE SIGNS THAT AN ELEVATED POTENTIAL FORTORNADOGENESIS MAY EXIST. THE LIMITING FACTOR IN CONFIDENCE THOUGHIS PLACEMENT/COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS EARLY IN THE DAY AND WHATSORT OF EFFICIENCY THERE WILL BE TO TURN THE AIRMASS OVER. A SLIGHTRISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST FOR ALL OF THE CWA...ALTHOUGH THESOUTHERN ONE THIRD APPEARS TO BE IN LINE FOR THE MORE SIGNIFICANTSEVERE THREAT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Parade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 LOT seems confident in a couple rounds today...wonder how long I can keep dodging these things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1217NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0752 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN IL INTO NWRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 251252Z - 251345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SVR TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED FOR PART OF NRN IL INTO NWRN IND /INCLUDING THE CHICAGO METRO AREA/...AND POSSIBLY SWRN LOWER MI. A LINE OF TSTMS WILL MOVE E/ESEWD THIS MORNING...POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS --- ESPECIALLY WITH EWD EXTENT AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES. DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF TSTMS THAT WAS LOCATED IN CENTRAL TO NERN IA HAVE GROWN UPSCALE INTO A FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING. AT 1220Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LINE OF STORMS WITH THIS MCS EXTENDING FROM EXTREME SOUTH CENTRAL WI /GREEN COUNTY/ TO ALONG THE NWRN IL/IA BORDER /CARROLL COUNTY IL TO CLINTON COUNTY IA/. ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE DEVELOPING FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...JUST TO THE EAST OF KMLI. THIS LINE OF STORMS WAS MOVING ESEWD CLOSE TO 45 KT...AND THUS FAR HAS REMAINED LOCATED NORTH OF AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. DESPITE THE CURRENT LOCATION OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE...WHICH HAS SHOWN SOME TENDENCY TO BOW...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING OVER NRN IL AND TEMPERATURES ARE ALREADY RISING PER TRENDS IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT FOR STRONGER INSTABILITY AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER WIND GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE...GIVEN DEWPOINTS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE E-W BOUNDARY OF AROUND 70 DEGREES. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDED FROM FAR NWRN OH WWD THROUGH NRN IND /15 N KFWA TO 30 SW KVPZ/ INTO NRN IL /15 ENE KMMO TO 25 NE KMLI/. THE DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH A 40-50 KT WLY MIDLEVEL JET EXTENDING FROM ERN IA TO SRN LOWER MI SUGGESTS STORMS COULD PERSIST EWD...AT LEAST TO SRN LAKE MICHIGAN AND POSSIBLY INTO FAR NWRN IND AND SWRN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...A WEAKENING TREND OF A WLY LLJ COULD PROVE A LIMITING FACTOR IN THE EWD SPEED OF THIS LINE OF STORMS. THUS...WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING IF A BOWING STRUCTURE BECOMES BETTER ORGANIZED. ..PETERS/HART.. 06/25/2013 ATTN...WFO...IWX...GRR...LOT...DVN... LAT...LON 41779014 42108982 42478964 42438796 42378723 42198542 41578551 41108591 41298766 41508897 41779014 New MD out for the current MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 things getting agitated in SW LOT ahead of the line EDIT: Sun is actually out now here...wasn't expecting that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE HEATING OVER NRN IL naso much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Already calling today a bust at 8:15? Tsk tsk you should know better than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 New Outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Already calling today a bust at 8:15? Tsk tsk you should know better than that. Bust? It's a slight risk scenario and the only thing I'm downplaying is this crappy morning MCS. Evening is still up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Bright sunshine now. Man it's like a swamp out there. Feels like things could really explode if heating continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Bright sunshine now. Man it's like a swamp out there. Feels like things could really explode if heating continues. yeah...sun has been out here for a good 30 minutes now....even if things don't blow up this morning there should be a few extra boundaries left hanging around... CAPE's nosing up, but with some CAP lingering around still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I don't see any signs of prolonged destabilization in the near term Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I don't see any signs of prolonged destabilization in the near term Thankfully it is 830AM and not 230PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 IZZI... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL825 AM CDT TUE JUN 25 2013.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...826 AM CDTSMALL MCS WITH BOWING LINE SEGMENT CONTINUE TO RACE EASTWARD ALONGTHE IL/WI BORDER. DESPITE WHAT HAS BEEN A VERY IMPRESSIVE RADARSIGNITURE FOR DAMAGING WINDS...THUS FAR THE WINDS HAVE NOT BEENPENETRATING TO THE SURFACE. THIS SMALL COMPLEX IS WELL NORTH OFLAST NIGHTS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND WOULD APPEAR THAT BOUNDARY LAYERSTABILITY IS STRONG ENOUGH KEEP WIND THREAT ELEVATED FOR AT LEASTANOTHER HOUR OR TWO...LIKELY LONG ENOUGH FOR THIS SMALL BOW TOMAKE IT TO THE LAKE. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVERNORTHWEST ILLINOIS ARE DEVELOPING CLOSER TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARYAND MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND SHOULD THESE STORMS INTENSIFY THEYWOULD STAND A BETTER CHANCE OF POSING A SEVERE WEATHER RISK LATERTHIS MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Thankfully it is 830AM and not 230PM. you have to actually read, Stebo the only thing I'm downplaying is this crappy morning MCS. Evening is still up for grabs. I don't see any signs of prolonged destabilization in the near term I mean, come on dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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