Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 That model run is useless.. Didn't initialize correctly...not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 That model run is useless.. Didn't initialize correctly...not even close. Probably a MSP to GRB special then? Maybe to SBM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I just want to test out this new bad boy: The couch? Looks pretty comfortable. J/K. Nice camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 a whole bunch of yesterday's 12z runs did a nice job with the ongoing MCS (edit in fact ARW even had rem ants diving into N. MO which looks possible)...it should start to crap the bed before too long but should hold together long enough to bring MKE and ORD some showers. SPC mentions possible action downstream from the watch. Clear skies here so we may be able to build some instability. GIVEN THE WELL ESTABLISHED BOWING TSTM LINE WITH A LARGE MCS ACROSSTHE UPPER MS VALLEY...A STRONG REAR INFLOW JET AND CONTINUEDDEVELOPMENT OF A COLD POOL...THE THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AREEXPECTED TO SPREAD E AND SE OF WW 332. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 That MCS isn't crapping the bed just yet. New storms firing ahead of it in NW IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 LLJ support and instability drop off rapidly to the east...it's on borrowed time. One the plus side, we should destabilize some a boundary lurking in the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 LLJ support and instability drop off rapidly to the east...it's on borrowed time. One the plus side, we should destabilize some a boundary lurking in the region. Interesting the warning states it is expected to intensify in the short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Interesting the warning states it is expected to intensify in the short term. short term and to the east are very different things. The segment west of Madison ingested the mini WAA wing and is bowing nicely...it's still going to push into a much more hostile environment before too long. the only wildcard is if it can hang together in decent shape long enough for our area to destabilize and maybe see a second wind. MKE sounds like they have a good handle THIS WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW REGIME IS TYPICALLY DIFFICULT TO RESOLVE DETAILED CONVECTIVE TRENDS BEYOND ABOUT 12HRS. CONVECTION BEYOND 12HRS DEPENDS HIGHLY ON THE BEHAVIOR OF CONVECTION IN THE PRECEDING 12HRS. FOR INSTANCE...ALL THE HI RESOLUTION SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH THE CONVECTION OVER MN EARLY THIS MORNING. EARLIER MODEL RUNS DEVELOPED THIS INTO A BIG BOW ECHO THAT RACED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 12Z. THE REALITY IS THAT IT IS STAYING UP TO THE NORTH MUCH LONGER AND MAY END UP JUST SKIRTING THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BEFORE DIMINISHING WITH TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS. THE TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST NEEDS THE COLD POOL DYNAMICS TO GET ORGANIZED AND THAT APPEARS TO BE HAPPENING AROUND 07Z THIS MORNING. EACH HRRR RUN HAS BEEN BACKING OFF ON THE SPEED AND OVERALL DEVELOPMENT. THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET AND BEST INSTABILITY ARE TO THE WEST AND NORTH...BUT WILL LEAN NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE TOO BULLISH ON SFC MOISTURE. FOR NOW...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE A CONSENSUS THAT WE WILL LIKELY SEE THE MN CONVECTION ROLL ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING AS THE LOW LEVEL JET AND MOISTURE LEAN INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD LAY OUT A LOW LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT COULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WE SHOULD SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP OUT IN THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND ROLL INTO THE CWA LATER TONIGHT. SO LONG STORY SHORT...LOOK FOR MORNING CONVECTION TO DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANOTHER ROUND LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. TEMPS MIGHT BE HELD DOWN A BIT TODAY IF WE ARE SLOW TO SCOUR OUT THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS. TEMPS WON/T DROP TOO FAR TONIGHT AS WE ARE SOLIDLY IN THE WARM SECTOR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 It does appear like this MCS will be strong/south enough to shift the effective boundary for the next round(s) south of where I had initially thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I could maybe see a gust fronty, shelfy, low precipy thing maybe roll through if its in place early enough in the day....i give that scenario maybe a 50/50 shot... Edit: non severe for lot area perhaps 80/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 perhaps 80/20 yeah that was a money call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 yeah that was a money call key is just north of Dubuque area right now....where that cold pool southward running meets the slowly progressing eastward extent...now it looks like a bow....but we will see soon if the that south push out runs the east push...will tell the story for the next day (or 2 even with the boundaries that you alluded to) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 family in Galena area should have some rocking photos though with the low sun angle and dark clouds rolling in from the N/NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 key is just north of Dubuque area right now....where that cold pool southward running meets the slowly progressing eastward extent...now it looks like a bow....but we will see soon if the that south push out runs the east push...will tell the story for the next day (or 2 even with the boundaries that you alluded to) I think it will...but I also thing the south push will help hold the instability/theta-e gradient further south again this evenight/tonight, so i'd expect another hard right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 FWIW, and it's not much... 10z HRRR seems to maintain the complex for RFD through Geosland. Of course, the 9z run crapped out (moved thru to the north) the initial complex and reignited another in Iowa that largely missed Chicago to the west and south. Pick your poison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 FWIW, and it's not much... 10z HRRR seems to maintain the complex for RFD through Geosland. Of course, the 9z run crapped out (moved thru to the north) the initial complex and reignited another in Iowa that largely missed Chicago to the west and south. Pick your poison. 9z looks more realistic based on current radar trends. I do wonder if the dying line will refired over the area early this afternoon if we destabilize enough...already up to 80 on the bank clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 LOT can probably safely raise pops, at minimum remnant showers look like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1150 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 AM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN-ERN IA/ERN AND SRN WI/NRN IL CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333... VALID 211307Z - 211400Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 333 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A NEW WW MAY BE NEEDED TO THE SOUTH OF WW 333 THIS MORNING AS A BOWING LINE OF STORMS IN SWRN WI TO FAR NERN IA TRACKS SEWD...REACHING FAR NRN IL AND PART OF EAST CENTRAL IA JUST AFTER 14Z. DAMAGING WIND THREAT MAY EXTEND INTO ERN WI...THOUGH A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH NWD EXTENT COULD LIMIT THIS THREAT IN NERN WI. FARTHER W...ISOLATED HAIL REMAINS A THREAT IN PARTS OF NRN IA TO THE WEST OF WW 333. DISCUSSION...AT 1245Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THE NRN EXTENT OF A BOWING LINE OF TSTMS...NOW APPROACHING ERN WI HAS BEGUN TO WEAKEN IN INTENSITY...THOUGH REMAINS MOVING EWD AT 40-45 KT. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS LINE...NOW MOVING SEWD AT 40-45 KT THROUGH SWRN WI AND FAR NERN IA...COULD PERSIST A FEW MORE HOURS ACROSS SRN WI WITH A PORTION OF THE LINE MOVING INTO NRN IL/EAST CENTRAL IA JUST AFTER 14Z. ALTHOUGH AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT EXTENDED INTO ERN IA AND NRN IL...THE BOWING LINE WILL MOVE SOUTH OF STRONGER FLOW ALOFT THAT COULD LIMIT ITS FORWARD SPEED AND OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SOUTH OF WW 333. MEANWHILE...THE NRN EXTENT OF THE LINE MOVING INTO EAST CENTRAL AND NERN WI SHOULD BECOME ELEVATED /OR MORE ELEVATED WITH TIME/ GIVEN A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT INTO THESE AREAS PER 12Z GRB SOUNDING. ADDITIONAL ELEVATED STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ACROSS FAR NRN IA WITHIN A LOW LEVEL WAA REGIME ALONG AND NORTH OF A SWD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 9z looks more realistic based on current radar trends. I do wonder if the dying line will refired over the area early this afternoon if we destabilize enough...already up to 80 on the bank clock. 11z moves the west wing through Chicago. Alright, too much HRRR talk. Good luck up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 The southwest part of the line looks to be moving south, but the rest of the MCS is moving east. Some general showers and t'storms for a three hour period looks like the best bet, most likely for both Milwaukee and Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Curious to see what this does...on the road to NC for vacation so I'm sure something decent will happen with this. Looking at mesoanalysis...overall shear drops off south of the IL/WI border and the *best* moisture is west of I-39 but with sunshine ahead of this thing and already a good reservoir of MUCAPE, it should continue for awhile. Steering winds become really weak so going to dump a lot of water with the slow movement. Hopefully at least a good shelf. I love the morning MCS setups that continue enough with late morning/afternoon sunshine and hit that instability. This one will have a harder time in IL with only 20kts of shear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 lol GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 lol GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 new watch being issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 micro harbor watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 new watch being issued. for counties west of will and dupage....yet includes one portion over the lake just north of gary..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 They're expecting Chicago to be skipped, yet the hounds of hell to be unleashed on that one spot in Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 They're expecting Chicago to be skipped, yet the hounds of hell to be unleashed on that one spot in Lake Michigan. let's hit the wonderful beaches of gary! mmmmmm...... looks like line trying to gust out a bit....we'll see if she can re-organize or not here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 They're expecting Chicago to be skipped, yet the hounds of hell to be unleashed on that one spot in Lake Michigan. Well what's happening is the northern part of the line is general thunderstorms and pretty weak, and the southern end is starting to move more southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Well what's happening is the northern part of the line is general thunderstorms and pretty weak, and the southern end is starting to move more southward. So that means all the areas surrounding that lake watch aren't expected to see severe, yet that spot will? Seems legit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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