RobertSul Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Wow, extreme Southeast Michigan went from being right on the edge of 5%, to being in the 30% for winds probabilities for today/tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Wow, extreme Southeast Michigan went from being right on the edge of 5%, to being in the 30% for winds probabilities for today/tonight. Shoulda kept the 5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Wow, extreme Southeast Michigan went from being right on the edge of 5%, to being in the 30% for winds probabilities for today/tonight. Don't believe the hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Warnings in west central ohio now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Line seems to be strengthening a tiny bit again. SPC is considering a watch. Who knows, though. I really dont buy it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Just got clipped by the northern batch, now the southern batch is going to pass to my south. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 this subdivision (about a mile and half west of me) was also hit by a smaller tornado a number of years back....similar situation I believe too...that being a bowing line structure with some spin ups along the lead edge...maybe in 2008? not saying that today's damage is tornado related, but with some reports of rotation in the area today and then seeing which subdivision it was....reminded me of it.... this from today... 0540 PM TSTM WND DMG BOLINGBROOK 41.70N 88.08W06/24/2013 WILL IL TRAINED SPOTTER 5 TO 6 LARGE TREES DOWN 12 TO 13 INCHES IN DIAMETER. SHINGLES PEELED OFF ROOFS OF HOUSES. COLLAPSE OF A 3 SEASON ROOM. FENCE DOWN. 1 MILE WEST OF INTERSECTION OF WEBER RD AND BOUGHTON RD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Munising about to get hit, they don't see many storms up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 IA looks to be the hot spot tomorrow per perfect prog of the 0z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 O boy, new storms moving into SW Wisc. Just what they need... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 IA looks to be the hot spot tomorrow per perfect prog of the 0z NAM. The 18z GFS also looked potent for that area assuming storm initiation. Central and Southern IL and the Wabash Valley eastward to the IN/OH border, northward perhaps into parts of Lower MI and southward to the OH River look pretty good on Wednesday, with more certainty of convective initiation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Yeah, I can back that up. Called in the 50 mph report on the northside. Several impressive gusts. Watched a partially finished roof on a condo across the street get ripped to shreds and just discovered a bit ago a shutter blew off my house. 41 MPH at LAF. Ho hum. At least I beat Alek. EDIT: Chad to the rescue. 0901 PM TSTM WND GST LAFAYETTE 40.41N 86.87W06/24/2013 M51 MPH TIPPECANOE IN BROADCAST MEDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Complex coming into WI is heading due east it looks like. New flash flood warnings in extreme NE Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Yeah, I can back that up. Called in the 50 mph report on the northside. Several impressive gusts. Watched a partially finished roof on a condo across the street get ripped to shreds and just discovered a bit ago a shutter blew off my house. Congrats on moving out of the old hood. Not so much on the damage to your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Got one complex organizing over northeast IA/southwest WI, and another one in eastern NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Complex coming into WI is heading due east it looks like. New flash flood warnings in extreme NE Iowa. Yeah, it sure would be nice to have some cooling t'storms tonight, still in the low 70s at this point. Then, I look at St. Louis' 87F observation from 9pm, and it doesn't seem so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Haha, thanks, I'm still split between the two places at the moment. Congrats on moving out of the old hood. Not so much on the damage to your house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Yeah, it sure would be nice to have some cooling t'storms tonight, still in the low 70s at this point. Then, I look at St. Louis' 87F observation from 9pm, and it doesn't seem so bad. Yeah still near 70° here. Looks like the activity is trying to built towards Freeport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Yeah, it sure would be nice to have some cooling t'storms tonight, still in the low 70s at this point. Then, I look at St. Louis' 87F observation from 9pm, and it doesn't seem so bad. It's Summer in the Midwest, c'mon now, what do you expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 It's Summer in the Midwest, c'mon now, what do you expect? He wants it in the 60s until it snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 Damage pics from Lee Co, IL... http://addins.wrex.com/blogs/weather/2013/06/damaging-thunderstorms-today-in-lee-county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 It's Summer in the Midwest, c'mon now, what do you expect? Well, Milwaukee has the coolest summer of any major city in the region, so I don't know what real heat feels like, and thankfully so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 00z GFS looks very potent in Western and Central IA tomorrow assuming we get convective initiation, sub-1000 mb sfc low nearby, 0-3 km SRH intensifies to over 400 m2/s2 along with 3000-4000+ J/kg SBCAPE (0-3 km EHI from 8 to over 12 and SCP in excess of 20). There looks to be a dryline bulge on both the NAM and GFS setting up in Eastern Nebraska that could enhance the chances for convective initiation. Left exit region of UL jet streak also pivots over the area. Also, Wednesday looks around the same as the NAM, although shifted to the south and west in terms of the best parameter space. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Well, Milwaukee has the coolest summer of any major city in the region, so I don't know what real heat feels like, and thankfully so. Toronto... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 00z GFS looks very potent in Western and Central IA tomorrow assuming we get convective initiation, sub-1000 mb sfc low nearby, 0-3 km SRH intensifies to over 400 m2/s2 along with 3000-4000+ J/kg SBCAPE (0-3 km EHI from 8 to over 12 and SCP in excess of 20). There looks to be a dryline bulge on both the NAM and GFS setting up in Eastern Nebraska that could enhance the chances for convective initiation. Left exit region of UL jet streak also pivots over the area. Also, Wednesday looks around the same as the NAM, although shifted to the south and west in terms of the best parameter space. The 3z RAP looks even more impressive...998mb low and really backs the winds along the NE/IA border with 30-40kts of mid-level flow. The RAP is also the most aggressive on destabilization further east across northern/northeast IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. The coolest thing about the RAP on CoD's new site is the 1hr mouse overlays...look at theta-e and you can see so much going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The 3z RAP looks even more impressive...998mb low and really backs the winds along the NE/IA border with 30-40kts of mid-level flow. The RAP is also the most aggressive on destabilization further east across northern/northeast IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. The coolest thing about the RAP on CoD's new site is the 1hr mouse overlays...look at theta-e and you can see so much going on. rapCGP_sfc_thetae_018.gif rapCGP_con_pwat_018.gif rapCGP_con_sbcape_018.gif Cross-over shear becomes very impressive by 21z there, well over 60 degrees of turning between H5 and H85, and yeah that is some serious juice there looking at the thermodynamic fields, the NE/IA border looks like a great spot, it is both on the nose and left entrance region of the intensifying low level jet. That said, it will be a close call with that warm nose at 700 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Toronto... Is Toronto cooler? Anyway, I meant Midwest as a region of the country, since that is one of the four major 'regions' in the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Is Toronto cooler? Anyway, I meant Midwest as a region of the country, since that is one of the four major 'regions' in the US. Comparable and it is part of this region, either way this is a severe thread lets discuss severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Looks like this SW Wisconsin complex has the Milwaukee to Chicago corridor in its sights tonight. Moving slightly south of due east. Severe t-storm warning for NE Grant County for Quarter sized hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Is Toronto cooler? Anyway, I meant Midwest as a region of the country, since that is one of the four major 'regions' in the US. Took us until yesterday to hit our first 90. On to severe... threat has really dropped off for southern Ontario Wednesday, everything seems to have shifted south of Erie. Actually starting to look like we won't see any real action at all during this severe period. Still some decent turning with height Wednesday but seems instability has dropped off and winds are weaker. Not surprising considering the NAM has the center of the low passing right over us on Wednesday. Would not be entirely shocked to get trimmed out of the D2 SLGT in the update. EDIT: GEM still holds hope for tomorrow with 3000-4000 J/kg CAPE and a vorticity max passing over at around 21Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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