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June 21-27 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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this subdivision (about a mile and half west of me) was also hit by a smaller tornado a number of years back....similar situation I believe too...that being a bowing line structure with some spin ups along the lead edge...maybe in 2008?  not saying that today's damage is tornado related, but with some reports of rotation in the area today and then seeing which subdivision it was....reminded me of it....

 

this from today...

 

0540 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BOLINGBROOK             41.70N 88.08W
06/24/2013                   WILL               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 TO 6 LARGE TREES DOWN 12 TO 13 INCHES IN DIAMETER.
            SHINGLES PEELED OFF ROOFS OF HOUSES. COLLAPSE OF A 3
            SEASON ROOM. FENCE DOWN. 1 MILE WEST OF INTERSECTION OF
            WEBER RD AND BOUGHTON RD.
 

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IA looks to be the hot spot tomorrow per perfect prog of the 0z NAM.

 

The 18z GFS also looked potent for that area assuming storm initiation.

 

Central and Southern IL and the Wabash Valley eastward to the IN/OH border, northward perhaps into parts of Lower MI and southward to the OH River look pretty good on Wednesday, with more certainty of convective initiation.

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Yeah, I can back that up. Called in the 50 mph report on the northside. Several impressive gusts. Watched a partially finished roof on a condo across the street get ripped to shreds and just discovered a bit ago a shutter blew off my house.

 

41 MPH at LAF. Ho hum.

 

At least I beat Alek. :D

 

EDIT: Chad to the rescue.

 

0901 PM TSTM WND GST LAFAYETTE 40.41N 86.87W
06/24/2013 M51 MPH TIPPECANOE IN BROADCAST MEDIA

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Yeah, I can back that up. Called in the 50 mph report on the northside. Several impressive gusts. Watched a partially finished roof on a condo across the street get ripped to shreds and just discovered a bit ago a shutter blew off my house.

Congrats on moving out of the old hood. Not so much on the damage to your house. :D

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Complex coming into WI is heading due east it looks like. New flash flood warnings in extreme NE Iowa.

 

Yeah, it sure would be nice to have some cooling t'storms tonight, still in the low 70s at this point.  Then, I look at St. Louis' 87F observation from 9pm, and it doesn't seem so bad.

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Yeah, it sure would be nice to have some cooling t'storms tonight, still in the low 70s at this point.  Then, I look at St. Louis' 87F observation from 9pm, and it doesn't seem so bad.

 

Yeah still near 70° here. Looks like the activity is trying to built towards Freeport. 

 

ARX.N0Q.20130625.0410.gif

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Yeah, it sure would be nice to have some cooling t'storms tonight, still in the low 70s at this point.  Then, I look at St. Louis' 87F observation from 9pm, and it doesn't seem so bad.

 

It's Summer in the Midwest, c'mon now, what do you expect?

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00z GFS looks very potent in Western and Central IA tomorrow assuming we get convective initiation, sub-1000 mb sfc low nearby, 0-3 km SRH intensifies to over 400 m2/s2 along with 3000-4000+ J/kg SBCAPE (0-3 km EHI from 8 to over 12 and SCP in excess of 20). There looks to be a dryline bulge on both the NAM and GFS setting up in Eastern Nebraska that could enhance the chances for convective initiation. Left exit region of UL jet streak also pivots over the area.

 

Also, Wednesday looks around the same as the NAM, although shifted to the south and west in terms of the best parameter space.

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00z GFS looks very potent in Western and Central IA tomorrow assuming we get convective initiation, sub-1000 mb sfc low nearby, 0-3 km SRH intensifies to over 400 m2/s2 along with 3000-4000+ J/kg SBCAPE (0-3 km EHI from 8 to over 12 and SCP in excess of 20). There looks to be a dryline bulge on both the NAM and GFS setting up in Eastern Nebraska that could enhance the chances for convective initiation. Left exit region of UL jet streak also pivots over the area.

 

Also, Wednesday looks around the same as the NAM, although shifted to the south and west in terms of the best parameter space.

 

The 3z RAP looks even more impressive...998mb low and really backs the winds along the NE/IA border with 30-40kts of mid-level flow. The RAP is also the most aggressive on destabilization further east across northern/northeast IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. The coolest thing about the RAP on CoD's new site is the 1hr mouse overlays...look at theta-e and you can see so much going on.

 

 

 

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The 3z RAP looks even more impressive...998mb low and really backs the winds along the NE/IA border with 30-40kts of mid-level flow. The RAP is also the most aggressive on destabilization further east across northern/northeast IL tomorrow afternoon/evening. The coolest thing about the RAP on CoD's new site is the 1hr mouse overlays...look at theta-e and you can see so much going on.

 

attachicon.gifrapCGP_sfc_thetae_018.gif

 

attachicon.gifrapCGP_con_pwat_018.gif

 

attachicon.gifrapCGP_con_sbcape_018.gif

 

Cross-over shear becomes very impressive by 21z there, well over 60 degrees of turning between H5 and H85, and yeah that is some serious juice there looking at the thermodynamic fields, the NE/IA border looks like a great spot, it is both on the nose and left entrance region of the intensifying low level jet.

 

That said, it will be a close call with that warm nose at 700 mb.

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Looks like this SW Wisconsin complex has the Milwaukee to Chicago corridor in its sights tonight. Moving slightly south of due east.

 

Severe t-storm warning for NE Grant County for Quarter sized hail.

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Is Toronto cooler?  Anyway, I meant Midwest as a region of the country, since that is one of the four major 'regions' in the US.

 

Took us until yesterday to hit our first 90.

 

On to severe... threat has really dropped off for southern Ontario Wednesday, everything seems to have shifted south of Erie. Actually starting to look like we won't see any real action at all during this severe period. Still some decent turning with height Wednesday but seems instability has dropped off and winds are weaker. Not surprising considering the NAM has the center of the low passing right over us on Wednesday. Would not be entirely shocked to get trimmed out of the D2 SLGT in the update.

 

EDIT: GEM still holds hope for tomorrow with 3000-4000 J/kg CAPE and a vorticity max passing over at around 21Z.

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