snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 watch out for LOT until 10:00 PM URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 356 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 315 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN ILLINOIS NORTHWESTERN INDIANA SOUTHERN WISCONSIN LAKE MICHIGAN * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF MARSEILLES ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 354...WW 355... DISCUSSION...ONGOING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY STILL POSSIBLE...AS IT OVERSPREADS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...PERHAPS MILWAUKEE AS WELL... WITH THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY THE 23-01Z TIME FRAME. LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH MESOVORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Look out for that meso going for the north side of DVN. 95/30 wind probs? Huh? I've noticed that lately Kerr has been putting some weird probabilities on his watches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 0325 PM TORNADO N MUSCATINE 41.42N 91.07W06/24/2013 MUSCATINE IA LAW ENFORCEMENTTORNADO ON THE GROUND WITH SEMI TRUCK OVERTURNED ONHIGHWAY 61 AND INDEPENDENCE ST NEAR BLAINS FARM ANDFLEET. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 0325 PM TORNADO N MUSCATINE 41.42N 91.07W 06/24/2013 MUSCATINE IA LAW ENFORCEMENT TORNADO ON THE GROUND WITH SEMI TRUCK OVERTURNED ON HIGHWAY 61 AND INDEPENDENCE ST NEAR BLAINS FARM AND FLEET. Yeah I figured there was something there, that is a well developed mesovortex. ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE ANDSCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...AT 325 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLUE GRASS...ANDMOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED A TORNADO. ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF MUSCATINE AT 325 PM.IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...DAVENPORT...WALCOTT...DONAHUE...ELDRIDGE...LONG GROVE...MCCAUSLAND...PLAINVIEW...MAYSVILLE...DAVENPORT MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...PARK VIEW ANDSCOTT COUNTY PARK.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 80 IN IOWA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 279 AND 299.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 280 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 90 kts at 485 ft AGL on the KDVN scan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEASTERN MUSCATINE AND SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT... AT 325 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR BLUE GRASS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT CONFIRMED A TORNADO. ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE OF MUSCATINE AT 325 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 90 kts at 485 ft AGL on the KDVN scan Thing is going to go directly over the radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Yeah I figured there was something there, that is a well developed mesovortex. rammed into the outflow from that previous QC cell? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Two confirmed tors on the ground in eastern IA at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Two confirmed tors on the ground in eastern IA at present. I'm not seeing a whole lot with the northern one now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 The portion of the bow heading into the heart of the QC's is starting to accelerate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 LOT... TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NW INDIANA HAVE JUMPEDINTO THE LOW TO MID 80S OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS AFTER THE MORNINGCLOUD COVER CLEARED. WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70...THIS IS RESULTING INMLCAPES AROUND 2,000 J/KG ACROSS THE AREA...PER SPC MESOANALYSISPAGE. IN ADDITION...IT APPEARS THAT THE 0-6 KM SHEAR MAY END UP ABIT STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. VWP DATA INDICATES THAT A SPEEDMAX AROUND 50 KT ...ASSOCIATED WITH A MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVINGINTO NORTHWESTERN IOWA...IS PUNCHING EASTWARD ACROSS IOWA. THUS ITAPPEARS THAT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEER MAY OVERSPREAD THIS AREALATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THIS SPEED MAX SHIFTS EASTWARD.CURRENT THOUGHTS ARE THAT THE LINE OF CONVECTION TO THE WEST WILLPOSE A SEVERE THREAT FOR MOST OF THE AREA INTO THE EARLY EVENINGHOURS. STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH...WILLBE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG WITH A SMALL POTENTIAL OF SOMEMARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 MUCAPE is increasing out ahead of this thing, an increasingly broad area of 3000+ J/kg showing up across northern and central IL per mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 The portion of the bow heading into the heart of the QC's is starting to accelerate. yep...caught up to the cirrus shield and outflow....hauling now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 MLI gusted to 68mph...and 66mph at DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 This reminds me of 6/18/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Well, it looks like NWS DVN had to take cover. 621 WUUS53 KDVN 242045 SVRDVN IAC045-097-242130- /O.NEW.KDVN.SV.W.0097.130624T2045Z-130624T2130Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA/IL ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI 345 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 430 PM CDT * AT 342 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ROUGHLY ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM ZWINGLE TO MAQUOKETA TO WELTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THESE STORMS CAN PRODUCE PENNY SIZE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... CHARLOTTE AND LA MOTTE AROUND 350 PM... ST. DONATUS AND SPRINGBROOK AROUND 355 PM... PRESTON AND SPRAGUEVILLE AROUND 400 PM... MILES AROUND 405 PM... SABULA AND GREEN ISLAND AROUND 410 PM... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR SMALL HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSE A SIGNIFICANT DANGER TO BOATERS. IF ON AREA RIVERS OR LAKES...IMMEDIATELY MOVE TO SHORE AND FIND SHELTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Velocities increasing rapidly with the bowing segment per the last two scans from DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Cycloneville under the new tor warn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 This reminds me of 6/18/10 Bingo bango. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Cycloneville under the new tor warn. Hoping for one of this time lapses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Another tornado warning south of the Cycloneville one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 looks like they are going with a large tor warn box in DVN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 I count at least 4 different meso-vortices/couplets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Another tornado warning south of the Cycloneville one. they actually have 3 boxes in there...might be just putting one out for the bowing line for numerous pop up vorts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 The way this line is transpiring is not unlike the June 18, 2010 derecho that traversed N Illinois/far S Wisconsin. Very similar potential path it looks like if it maintains its strength. Edit: ouch, of course I wouldn't be the first to mention that event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I count at least 4 different meso-vortices/couplets. The southern-most one appears to be the strongest. That bowing segment is going to town, pointed at Chicagoland (and instability is increasing with eastward progression). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Nice RIJ sampled by DVN VWP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 MLI gusted to 68mph...and 66mph at DVN. Make that 71mph at DVN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.