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June 21-27 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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you calling "bank"? ... or saying "take it to the bank"?  :P

 

trends favors your thought strongly, plus plenty of destabilizing going on area wide now...

 

and this....

Meaning take it to the bank.

 

Nice recovery going on across the area.

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I need this to develop a bit more to the north...

 

 

 

current trajectory looks perfect for the heart of LOT

 

Bow feature south of the WAA wing has gotten much more organized over the past couple frames.  nice warned cell right at the triple points.  Taking on some classic looking features.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

252 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTHWESTERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

SOUTHWESTERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

SOUTHEASTERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

 

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT  

 

* AT 250 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR SOLON...AND  

MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO  

ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS  

WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

TIPTON...MECHANICSVILLE...STANWOOD...SOLON...MOUNT VERNON...  

LISBON...MORLEY...MORSE...OASIS...SUTLIFF...CEDAR VALLEY...CEDAR  

BLUFF...BUCHANAN AND TIPTON MATTHEWS AIRPORT.  

 

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current trajectory looks perfect for the heart of LOT

 

Bow feature south of the WAA wing has gotten much more organized over the past couple frames.  nice warned cell right at the triple points.  Taking on some classic looking features.

 

you can almost see it lurching trying to ride its gust now

 

EDIT: I guess lunging is a better word

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Ever changing, here's the new day one outlook (and wind probs below). Alek gonna get drilled.

 

 

 

best threat of the year shaping up...that's not saying much but it looks good and I see few potential spoilers on the table.

 

and yeah, the QC area has been getting destroyed lately.

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Lake breeze is basically right overhead. Winds are shifting back and forth. About 78° imby now, was about 82°.

Will see how far this complex continues straight east.

 

Severe t-storm watch just extended east and north.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED  

TORNADO WARNING  

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL  

314 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013  

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A  

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  

NORTHERN CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

NORTHWESTERN CLINTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

SOUTHEASTERN JONES COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA...  

 

* UNTIL 400 PM CDT  

 

* AT 312 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR  

STANNWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  

 

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.  

 

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO.  

 

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO  

ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS  

WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS  

LIKELY.  

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  

STANWOOD...CLARENCE...OLIN...OXFORD JUNCTION...CENTER JUNCTION...  

WYOMING...ONSLOW...LOST NATION...MONMOUTH...NASHVILLE...CANTON...  

HALE...OXFORD MILLS...BALDWIN...ELWOOD...WILDWOOD ACRES...  

BUCKHORN...MAQUOKETA MUNICIPAL AIRPORT...EMELINE AND MAQUOKETA  

CAVES STATE PARK.  

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Nice probs:

 

 


Note:  Click for Complete Product Text
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes 

Low (20%)

Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes

Low (<2%)

Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events

High (>95%)

Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots

Mod (30%)

Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events

Mod (50%)

Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches

Mod (30%)

Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events

High (>95%)

 
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SEL6

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 356

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

315 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

NORTHERN ILLINOIS

NORTHWESTERN INDIANA

SOUTHERN WISCONSIN

LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL

1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...

NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS EXPECTED WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT

GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2

INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80

STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 70 MILES WEST

SOUTHWEST OF ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 70 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF

MARSEILLES ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE

THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE

FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH

AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR

THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS

AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY

DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 354...WW 355...

DISCUSSION...ONGOING SEVERE MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED

TO PERSIST...WITH SOME INCREASE IN INTENSITY STILL POSSIBLE...AS IT

OVERSPREADS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE

THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT MUCH OF

THE CHICAGO METROPOLITAN AREA...PERHAPS MILWAUKEE AS WELL... WITH

THE RISK FOR WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BY THE 23-01Z TIME

FRAME. LOCALIZED AREAS OF ENHANCED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE

WITH MESOVORTICES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT

TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70

KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM

MOTION VECTOR 27040.

...KERR

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