snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Watch issued for IA/IL/MO. Should see the complex across IA/MO develop into a nice elongated bow. Unfortunately the lingering activity across the DVN/LOT CWA's probably killed the threat farther north. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 354 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1215 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN IOWA NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS NORTHERN MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1215 PM UNTIL 700 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LIKELY WITH A FEW SIGNIFICANT GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH OF LAMONI IOWA TO 10 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && DISCUSSION...FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND INTENSIFICATION OF THE ONGOING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI APPEARS LIKELY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD POOL STRENGTHENS/DEEPENS...BROADER SCALE STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST IOWA AND PARTS OF NORTHEAST MISSOURI...INTO NORTHWESTERN ILLINOIS BY 21-23Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 I'm liking my position in Peoria right now Joe Needed a boat here last night/this morning though lol. You're looking good down there, especially with the OFB in the area...Though it might wash out with the amount of clearing/heating taking place across N. IL now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I kinda like Tuesday and especially Wednesday's potential around here. Shear definitely looks better than what we've seen lately and that is going to make a difference I think. Would think that Wednesday's probs will get raised in some of that large 15% area as we get closer. I agree and so does SPC. I know it's early, but I'm thinking somewhere around ILX (Bloomington/Champaign/Springfield) might be the bullseye Wednesday for some sup action, with severe quickly spreading east. LATER IN THE DAY STRONG HEATING ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY ACROSS THIS REGION AS SHORT-WAVE DIGS SEWD RESULTING IN SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT ACROSS MUCH OF IL/IND BY PEAK HEATING. FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM BOTH THE NAM/GFS EXHIBIT STRONG INSTABILITY WITH A VEERED BUT SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR POTENTIAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. HAIL/WIND WOULD DEFINITELY BE EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY IF SHORT-WAVE DIGS AS FORECAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Any chance this line of storms could be long lasting and possibly make it into my neck of the woods later tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Tornado warning in eastern IA. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL118 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHERN IOWA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHERN KEOKUK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA...* UNTIL 145 PM CDT* AT 117 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF WHAT CHEER...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. HAZARD...TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SIGOURNEY...WHAT CHEER...DELTA...KESWICK...MILLERSBURG...SOUTH ENGLISH...NORTH ENGLISH...KINROSS...HARPER...PARNELL...COAL CREEK...GIBSON...THORNBURG...SIG-NOR FIELD AIRPORT AND WEBSTER.OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE KEOKUK COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...KEOKUKCOUNTY EXPO...LAKE YENRUOGIS COUNTY PARK AND BELVA DEER RECREATIONAREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 new WAA wing trying to organize from Iowa City to the Quad Cities. Best severe threat will probably run SE along the I74 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 CAPE's rebounding nicely in western portions of LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 CAPE's rebounding nicely in western portions of LOT Where are you tracking the CAPE values from? Feels like it's destabilizing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Where are you tracking the CAPE values from? Feels like it's destabilizing. Surfaced Based looks like it was cracking 1500 west of will county...meso via SPC so...not up to the minute a little late to the game today here...I feel varying stable and unstable breezes at my local here...any lake breezes or old boundaries lingering around? or maybe just a little mixing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I'm not seeing any obvious boundaries in your area...one well south is trying to retreat north but is washing out in the process. Feels very stable/comfortable here lakeside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Surfaced Based looks like it was cracking 1500 west of will county...meso via SPC so...not up to the minute a little late to the game today here...I feel varying stable and unstable breezes at my local here...any lake breezes or old boundaries lingering around? or maybe just a little mixing? I see. Would be cool if there was real time observations on CAPE values. There is a localized lake breeze by Alek. Offshore winds here and the temperature is climbing into the 80s. Would be interesting to see a situation like yesterday's cells. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I'm not seeing any obvious boundaries in your area...one well south is trying to retreat north but is washing out in the process. Feels very stable/comfortable here lakeside. K...thanks! Yeah, starting to feel even warm and sticky even just in the shade of the garage....I don't have the sweaty garage floor yet....but starting to get that feel...we shall see hopefully that garbage north of QC can clean out and left the warm wing do it's thing...get that sucker further west more organized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 We need a radar site in Quincy desperately. I hate that radar hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 LOT's latest.... //DISCUSSION...UPDATED 18Z...WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS IN PLACE ALONG WITH VARIOUS BOUNDARIES TOKEEP NEXT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IN THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING.ATMOSPHERE TO CONTINUE TO RECOVER FROM MORNING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.THINKING IS A FEW TSRA ARE POSSIBLE BY MID AFTERNOON IN AREAS OFLESSENING/THINNING OF CLOUD COVER AND MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE BY LATEAFTERNOON IF MORE WIDESPREAD SUNSHINE OCCURS. CIRROSTRATUS SHIELDASSOCIATED WITH ORGANIZED AREAS OF TSRA/SHRA OVER IA MAY LIMITAMOUNT/DURATION OF SUN. TSRA CLUSTERS OVER IA EXPECTED TO ORGANIZEFURTHER AND TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND POSSIBLY NORTHWESTINDIANA INTO THE EVENING.SURFACE WARM FRONT EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE VICINITY OR JUST SOUTHOF THE TERMINALS. GIVEN HUMID ATMOSPHERE AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALLAREAS OF MAINLY LIGHT FOG ARE LIKELY OVERNIGHT. last few scans has the Iowa line starting to look pretty dang healthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 I could be wrong but I think that IA complex will travel east at least to the Starved Rock area before making the turn se. This is based on a look at the 500 and 700 mb flow on SPC meso page. Agree that the line is looking healthy and CAPE is increasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 IND Latest .NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...ISSUED AT 235 PM EDT MON JUN 24 2013CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER MOST OF THE AREA ASINSTABILITY HAS BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUD COVER. APPEARS THE BESTCHANCES FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WILL BE OVERTHE SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE A WEAK VORTICITY AXIS ISDRIFTING EAST.OTHERWISE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IS CURRENTLY PUSHING THROUGHIOWA/NORTHERN MISSOURI. MOST LIKELY PATH BASED ON THE LOCATION OFTHE 850MB JET WOULD BE GENERALLY TOWARDS NORTHERN ILLINOIS/NORTHWESTINDIANA LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER A TURN TOWARDS THE SOUTHEASTINTO THE INSTABILITY AXIS CAN/T BE RULED OUT. WILL GO WITH SMALLCHANCE POPS FOR TONIGHT...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST.THE GFS MOS LOWS TONIGHT LOOK REASONABLE BASED ON PROGGED LOW LEVELTHICKNESSES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Severe or not, the IA/N. MO MCS is going to push east through the LOT CWA, not SE. Bank it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 SPC now revising their thinking about se movement of the complex.... WITH AMPLE SHEAR INDICATED OVER THE AREA AND A MESOLOW EVIDENT -- NOW CROSSING CENTRAL IA...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN AT LEAST LOOSELY ORGANIZED IN AN ARC-SHAPED BAND AS THEY SPREAD EWD AT AROUND 40 KT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. WHILE THREATS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW AREA...EXPANSION OF THIS POTENTIAL EWD/NEWD WITH TIME WILL LIKELY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Severe or not, the IA/N. MO MCS is going to push east through the LOT CWA, not SE. Bank it. you calling "bank"? ... or saying "take it to the bank"? trends favors your thought strongly, plus plenty of destabilizing going on area wide now... and this.... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1202 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0211 PM CDT MON JUN 24 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN MO/SERN IA/SRN WI/NRN IL/NWRN INDIANA CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354... VALID 241911Z - 242115Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 354 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS WRN PORTIONS OF WW 354. AS THREAT SPREADS GRADUALLY EWD...NEW WW WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF NRN IL AND POSSIBLY INTO SRN WI/NWRN INDIANA. DISCUSSION...LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF STRONG/LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CROSSING SERN IA AND ADJACENT NERN MO ATTM...ALONG AN INSTABILITY GRADIENT ON THE NRN FRINGE OF A MODERATE CAPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MO/SRN AND WRN IL. WITH AMPLE SHEAR INDICATED OVER THE AREA AND A MESOLOW EVIDENT -- NOW CROSSING CENTRAL IA...EXPECT STORMS TO REMAIN AT LEAST LOOSELY ORGANIZED IN AN ARC-SHAPED BAND AS THEY SPREAD EWD AT AROUND 40 KT TOWARD THE MS VALLEY. WHILE THREATS FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WW AREA...EXPANSION OF THIS POTENTIAL EWD/NEWD WITH TIME WILL LIKELY REQUIRE NEW WW ISSUANCE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Sounds like a new watch coming for all of northern IL. Impressive 3hr SBCAPE increases ahead of that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 The SPC graphic appeared to have issues (at least for me), so here are the bounds: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 lol at the updated Day 2 outlook... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 uptick in lightning strikes on the northern half of the complex in iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 uptick in lightning strikes on the northern half of the complex in iowa Where do you find lightning data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Where do you find lightning data? Vaisala lightning explorer is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 the near total lack of shear is evident on the super low MCS maintenance parameters but with peak heating it might just be able to maintain in respectable form all the way to the lakefront. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Vaisala lightning explorer is good. Thank you good sir! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 the near total lack of shear is evident on the super low MCS maintenance parameters but with peak heating it might just be able to maintain in respectable form all the way to the lakefront. I think values of 40 and above are fairly good. That's why I was thinking the complex would make it to the Ottawa area before curving se. Now I think it might hold together and move more eastward fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Where do you find lightning data? I also use wunderground from time to time....with a grain of salt though... up to 83/71 now...also noticing some cumulus now here and there locally Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 a couple of old boundaries in a semi circle from Rockford to Kankakee --- ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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