Chicago Storm Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Still a few days out from the start, but there's good agreement on another multi day period with severe potential. It's late night MCS trackin' season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Certainly look to have a lot of instability to work with. Pattern is such that it may be difficult to pick out a higher end threat well in advance but it wouldn't be all that surprising to see a mod risk type event or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Certainly look to have a lot of instability to work with. Pattern is such that it may be difficult to pick out a higher end threat well in advance but it wouldn't be all that surprising to see a mod risk type event or two. Completely agree, along the edge of instability there is actually pretty decent wind shear. The only thing I would be worried about is if the stationary boundary lifts into Canada, which could put the MCS action north of the border and into New England, I don't think this is a likely solution but one on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 congrats rhinelander Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 congrats rhinelander My guess is Central Wisconsin will be around where the warm front stalls, so from S Minnesota into La Crosse and Green Bay will probably see plenty of action, I hope it trends south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 My guess is Central Wisconsin will be around where the warm front stalls, so from S Minnesota into La Crosse and Green Bay will probably see plenty of action, I hope it trends south though. I think that's a little optimistically far south. Ridge strength looks impressive so wagons north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 I think that's a little optimistically far south. Ridge strength looks impressive so wagons north. Sure but as with any warm front, I would think the same rule applies with MCS' pushing the warm front south at times. The GFS is north, but its ensembles and the Euro support a further south solution for the most part (south of Rhinelander). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 differences in opinion, this looks like a far northern tier into Canada event...better chances for those in our eastern fringes as things try to round the ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 DTX been biting hard on convective potential for a while now A SIGNIFICANT TRANSITION IN THE LOCAL WX WILL THEN COMMENCE FROMSATURDAY ONWARD AS MID-LEVEL WESTERLIES EMERGE ACROSS THENORTHERN TIER IN RESPONSE TO THE COLLAPSE OF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE.THIS WILL ALLOW A MOIST AND HUMID AIRMASS TO SPILL INTO THE REGIONWHICH SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM YIELDING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90DEGREES ALONG WITH UPPER 60S/LOW 70S DEWPOINTS. GIVEN SOUTHEASTMICHIGAN`S PROGGED FAVORABLE LOCATION ALONG THE INSTABILITYGRADIENT AND NOSE OF THE VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET ON SATURDAY, HAVENO ARGUMENT WITH THE ECMWF`S SUGGESTION OF A CONVECTIVE COMPLEXIMPACTING THE AREA ON SAT, PARTICULARLY GIVEN THE EXCELLENTCONTINUITY OBSERVED IN RECENT CYCLES. WITH THIS IN MIND, LEANEDHEAVILY TOWARD A CONSERVATIVE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST, AROUND 80DEGREES, FOR SATURDAY.THE RESERVOIR OF INSTABILITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WILLCONTINUE TO BUILD SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY AS A ROBUST ZONALLY-ORIENTEDEML RIBBON BECOMES INCREASINGLY WELL-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE GREATLAKES. PER THE USUAL, THIS WILL ALSO INTRODUCE STOUT MID-LEVELCAPPING AS EVIDENCED BY 00Z ECMWF 850MB TEMPS EXCEEDING 20C BY 00ZMONDAY EVENING. AS A RESULT, BOTH HOT TEMPERATURES AND SEVERECONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL BE IN PLAY FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROMSUNDAY ONWARD. ALSO WORTH NOTING IS THAT MOIST BOUNDARY LAYERCONDITIONS WILL LIMIT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO THE 70S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 LOT & MKE still favoring north/drier solutions and I very much agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 LOT & MKE still favoring north/drier solutions and I very much agree. yeah...looks like we might be too deep into the ridge in this area this round...although izzi did at least throw a bone to the euro to keep an eye on trends there...which seems logical at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 yeah...looks like we might be too deep into the ridge in this area this round...although izzi did at least throw a bone to the euro to keep an eye on trends there...which seems logical at this point We'll know by thursday night or friday morning...if the initial action can push south we might just stay in the game but if it's north, go ahead and punt on the whole weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 We'll know by thursday night or friday morning...if the initial action can push south we might just stay in the game but if it's north, go ahead and punt on the whole weekend. yeah....radars won't lie (amongst other obs reports) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 LOT & MKE still favoring north/drier solutions and I very much agree. And then DVN tends to agree with the Euro based on their last two discussions. I'm still taking a middle ground approach, and if MCS' develop the next couple nights, the warm frontal position will probably be shunted further south than the GFS is currently showing this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 And then DVN tends to agree with the Euro based on their last two discussions. I'm still taking a middle ground approach, and if MCS' develop the next couple nights, the warm frontal position will probably be shunted further south than the GFS is currently showing this weekend. I think it's a fair guess that places like Sheboygan to Green Bay are in line for some good t-storm activity, but I would not expect it to be much further south. If an MCS were to push through central WI and then another one hot on it's heals, then I could see the second one coming a bit further south into the MKX cwa. NAM favors north. It would be nice if we got one MCS before the ridge expands. Looks drier around here like ALEK said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 MIght not get any good action around here till next week, maybe Tuesday and after that later that week when the srn edge of the mid-level jet possibly comes back south and still lots of instability to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 First action should start late tonight...some of the guidance is developing a rather long-lived MCS and takes it SE into N. IL and S. WI by Friday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 We'll see if that MCS gets that far se. SPC seems more confident for the Great Lakes in the extended outlook. BEYOND D4...THERE IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC AND ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION OF A RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...TO THE E/SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 We'll see if that MCS gets that far se. SPC seems more confident for the Great Lakes in the extended outlook. BEYOND D4...THERE IS REASONABLY CONSISTENT AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE ECMWF/GFS/CMC AND ECMWF/GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION OF A RETROGRADING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY SHIFT PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE POTENTIAL FROM THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...TO THE E/SE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST/OH VALLEY. yeah, things certainly look to get more favorable beyond this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 the NAM is struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 12z spc WRF is hinting at some storms developing tomorrow across the remanent outflow boundary from the overnight mcs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 decent shift south with the new d2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 And even today's day one for general t storms now has a bulge as far east as me in Elkhart, IN. Will definitely be interesting to see where these complexes set up each night from now till mid week. Some of my most spectacular t storms have come from these complexes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Doctor Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 And even today's day one for general t storms now has a bulge as far east as me in Elkhart, IN. Will definitely be interesting to see where these complexes set up each night from now till mid week. Some of my most spectacular t storms have come from these complexes. The best storms are the high PW boomer MCSs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 LOT more or less punts through the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 18z NAM hires has a pretty honking bow echo racing across wisc and impacting Chi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 18z NAM hires has a pretty honking bow echo racing across wisc and impacting Chi. NAM hires continues to be the most aggressive solution for our area. It will bust as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 I could maybe see a gust fronty, shelfy, low precipy thing maybe roll through if its in place early enough in the day....i give that scenario maybe a 50/50 shot... Edit: non severe for lot area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I just want to test out this new bad boy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Nice looking camera! 0z NAM HIRES showing Milwaukee getting into the action about 9pm tomorrow. Hard right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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