Tropical Storm Barry -- Landfall Made in Veracruz

[yoda]

BULLETIN

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 3

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013

1100 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013

...DEPRESSION MOVING INLAND OVER BELIZE...

...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS CONTINUES...

SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...16.7N 88.9W

ABOUT 40 MI...60 KM NW OF MONKEY RIVER TOWN BELIZE

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND EASTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR

THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK

------------------------------

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO

WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN BELIZE NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...

LONGITUDE 88.9 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE

WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION WITH A

DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL MOVE OVER BELIZE AND

NORTHERN GUATEMALA TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY...AND OVER EASTERN

MEXICO BY LATE TUESDAY. THE DEPRESSION COULD EMERGE INTO THE

SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE BY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. WEAKENING WILL OCCUR WHILE THE CENTER MOVES OVER LAND

TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY

IF THE CENTER EMERGES INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL

ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 INCHES

ACROSS PORTIONS OF BELIZE...GUATEMALA...AND NORTHERN HONDURAS...

ALONG WITH THE MEXICAN STATES OF CHIAPAS...TABASCO...VERACRUZ...AND

THE SOUTHERN YUCATAN PENINSULA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE FLASH

FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

NEXT ADVISORY

-------------

NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM EDT.

$$

FORECASTER LANDSEA

[Eyewall2005]

Just issued last advisory ;0) 

 

Heavy rain producer for YP.

[wxtrackercody]

Just issued last advisory ;0) 

 

Heavy rain producer for YP.

Are you referring to the NHC? If so, they still advisories going for TD Two.

 

Speaking of the storm, the 00z GFS mimics my thoughts almost exactly. Over the next 12 hours the low-level circulation turns ever so slightly more northerly as a result of the weakening of the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. The low opens up but remains very much distinguishable on vorticity charts. Enters the Bay of Campeche near the Ciudad del Carmen and subsequently tightens into a low-grade tropical storm prior to making landfall.

 

[Sunny and Warm]

000
WTNT42 KNHC 180835
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
500 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION REMAINS RAGGED...
AND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE DIFFICULT TO
FIND IN THE MULTI-CHANNEL INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.
THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS SLOWED
SOMEWHAT AND JOGGED A BIT TO THE RIGHT OVERNIGHT...WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 295/07. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING REMAINS
UNCHANGED...AS A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE WEST AT A
SLOWER FORWARD SPEED AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS. IN
GENERAL...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT...OR
NORTHWARD...FOR THIS CYCLE. GIVEN THIS SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE AND
THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION...THE NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED
A LITTLE TOWARD THE NORTH. THE NEW NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO...BUT A
LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...AND LIES SOUTH
OF THE LATEST ECMWF AND GFS TRACKS.

THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 25 KT...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE CENTER REMAINS OVER LAND. A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED AFTER THE CENTER IS FORECAST TO
MOVE OFFSHORE IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. IF THE CYCLONE MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE THAN FORECAST...IT COULD STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE THAN
SHOWN HERE. HOWEVER...IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT THE DEPRESSION COULD
BECOME A REMNANT LOW OR DISSIPATE ENTIRELY IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO
BEFORE REACHING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN REMAINS HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH COULD
CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND
EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 17.0N 89.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
12H 18/1800Z 17.5N 90.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 19/0600Z 18.1N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 19/1800Z 18.5N 93.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 20/0600Z 18.6N 94.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 21/0600Z 18.7N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

 

[Srain]

MIMIC suggests TD 2 has taken a bit of a NW jog since making landfall in Belize. It is not uncommon for the Yucatan Peninsula to affect storm systems in unusual ways that are sometimes not modeled well at all. The eventual outcome probably will not change that much, but perhaps a bit more time over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche.

 

[wxmx]

still a bit right of the forecasted track. its gonna have a little more time over water than what is shown in the official forecast

[wxtrackercody]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 90.0W
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[wxmx]

It looks like it opened up and is currently relocating offshore, very near Cd. del Carmen.

[Srain]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

A FEW HOURS AGO I WAS TEMPTED TO DECLARE THE DEPRESSION A REMNANT
LOW. HOWEVER...CURRENT VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE DATA
FROM MEXICO STILL SHOWS A LARGE CIRCULATION WITH ENOUGH DEEP
CONVECTION TO MAINTAIN THE STATUS AS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT THIS
TIME. THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION IS ALREADY OVER THE
SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE WHERE SOME CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE
REDEVELOPING. ASSUMING THAT THE DEPRESSION MAINTAINS OR IMPROVES ITS
CURRENT STRUCTURE...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS FOR A
PORTION OF THE MEXICAN COAST WOULD BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO
BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KNOTS. THE
CURRENT TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO IS FORECAST BY THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO BE REPLACED BY A NARROW RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN WESTWARD
OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS OR
SO...UNTIL THE DEPRESSION MOVES INLAND OVER MEXICO.

REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF THE CENTER AND WHETHER THE CYCLONE
DISSIPATES OR STRENGTHENS A LITTLE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THE PRIMARY CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA
AND EASTERN MEXICO.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/2100Z 18.3N  91.9W   25 KT  30 MPH
12H  19/0600Z 18.7N  93.3W   25 KT  30 MPH
24H  19/1800Z 19.0N  95.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
36H  20/0600Z 19.0N  96.0W   30 KT  35 MPH
48H  20/1800Z 19.0N  97.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[phil882]

The enhanced visible satellite animation is fascinating  Earlier today the low-level circulation was very broad and diffuse and looked like it had opened up to a sharp trough axis. However, this afternoon its obvious that the surface circulation has become better defined as its traversed across Central America and Mexico and now finds itself on the low terrain on the SE coastline of the Bay of Campeche. 

 

 

One of the obvious questions is how did this circulation become better defined before moving offshore? I think one theory (that many have posed here before) is that the orientation of the orography near the coastline of Mexico aided in the spinup of the low-level circulation. I want you to pay close attention to the convection that fires up between 16-17N and 91-93W. Note that the low-level flow here is very weak and convergent before deeper convection starts to fire. This is actually the top of some very high mountain peaks in excess of 3000 meters (9000ft). In cases where there is gentle northerly flow, you would expect the momentum of the wind to not be strong enough to clear the higher terrain. Instead the flow is blocked and forced to go towards the path of least resistance (the place with lowest pressure). Since the surface pressure minimum is still mainly over land, the flow unsurprisingly moves eastward, beginning to reestablish the westerly winds on the southern side of the vorticity maxima.

 

 

Its really nice to be able to see a real-time example of this effect occurring. Terrain impacts on TCs I think are under appreciated because they are difficult to account for since the process happens on the mesoscale and global models oftentimes have difficulty depicting such processes. This enhancement is not unlike a TC dissipating and then reforming on the backside of islands with high topography (Hispaniola, Taiwan) 

[Snow_Miser]

Looking at the latest satellite images, it looks like either this is just on the coast, or has just meandered over the BOC.

[wxmx]

The enhanced visible satellite animation is fascinating  Earlier today the low-level circulation was very broad and diffuse and looked like it had opened up to a sharp trough axis. However, this afternoon its obvious that the surface circulation has become better defined as its traversed across Central America and Mexico and now finds itself on the low terrain on the SE coastline of the Bay of Campeche. 

 

 

 

One of the obvious questions is how did this circulation become better defined before moving offshore? I think one theory (that many have posed here before) is that the orientation of the orography near the coastline of Mexico aided in the spinup of the low-level circulation. I want you to pay close attention to the convection that fires up between 16-17N and 91-93W. Note that the low-level flow here is very weak and convergent before deeper convection starts to fire. This is actually the top of some very high mountain peaks in excess of 3000 meters (9000ft). In cases where there is gentle northerly flow, you would expect the momentum of the wind to not be strong enough to clear the higher terrain. Instead the flow is blocked and forced to go towards the path of least resistance (the place with lowest pressure). Since the surface pressure minimum is still mainly over land, the flow unsurprisingly moves eastward, beginning to reestablish the westerly winds on the southern side of the vorticity maxima.

 

 

 

Its really nice to be able to see a real-time example of this effect occurring. Terrain impacts on TCs I think are under appreciated because they are difficult to account for since the process happens on the mesoscale and global models oftentimes have difficulty depicting such processes. This enhancement is not unlike a TC dissipating and then reforming on the backside of islands with high topography (Hispaniola, Taiwan) 

 

Good post Phil. It might be a lame TD, but witnessing educational things like this, at least makes it worth the time we invest following it.

Looking at the latest satellite images, it looks like either this is just on the coast, or has just meandered over the BOC.

It appears so, just a bit W of Cd. del Carmen.

[phil882]

It might not be a lame TD for much longer. Convection is blossoming over the center tonight and with the forthcoming diurnal maximum in convection, I think chances are good we see an intensifying TC tonight. I'm quite surprised the NHC wasn't more agressive at for the 03z advisory.

 

Nice spiral band developing on the NE side of TD#2

 

[wxmx]

It might not be a lame TD for much longer. Convection is blossoming over the center tonight and with the forthcoming diurnal maximum in convection, I think chances are good we see an intensifying TC tonight. I'm quite surprised the NHC wasn't more agressive at for the 03z advisory.

 

Nice spiral band developing on the NE side of TD#2

 

 

I noticed this as well. It might get to lame TS status. SW shear is moderate (15-20kts) and it will hug land for a good chunk of the next 2-3 days, but it appears that there's enough dynamics to get this thing to TS status.

[Amped]

Yes a small spiral band is usually what you see in an intensifying TD weak TS. Big blobs of convection tend to collapse and squash the center and produce little surface pressure fall in a weak tc.. Something to look for as  we get further into slopgyre season.

 

TD2 is better organized and further north than I expected. could very well waste a name.  Murphys' law, storms with the least time to organize tend to do it the fastest.

[phil882]

I noticed this as well. It might get to lame TS status. SW shear is moderate (15-20kts) and it will hug land for a good chunk of the next 2-3 days, but it appears that there's enough dynamics to get this thing to TS status.

 

 

Yes a small spiral band is usually what you see in an intensifying TD weak TS. Big blobs of convection tend to collapse and squash the center and produce little surface pressure fall in a weak tc.. Something to look for as  we get further into slopgyre season.

 

TD2 is better organized and further north than I expected. could very well waste a name.  Murphys' law, storms with the least time to organize tend to do it the fastest.

 

Sorry to keep drilling this home but:

 

1. Its not a gyre... just because the system is emerging out of CA does not mean its possesses gyre like characteristics similar to what we identified with Andrea. I feel like I have to keep correcting people because after all its my Master's work. In fact we are heading out of "slopgyre" season where the July/August period doesn't typically produce any gyre like systems over Central America as the mean low-level flow in the EPAC is strong easterly and typically doesn't allow for flow reversal like you see in almost all CA gyre cases.

 

2. I don't really see much in the way of vertical wind shear. The asymmetrical convective appearance is still mainly due to the land sea differences in surface heating (e.g. afternoon convection over Land). We should see a more symmetrical storm tomorrow after the diurnal max has had a chance to allow convection to blossom over TD#2 now over open waters. It also appears to have gained enough latitude to buy itself 18-24 hours over water from here on out.  

[wxmx]

Sorry to keep drilling this home but:

 

2. I don't really see much in the way of vertical wind shear. The asymmetrical convective appearance is still mainly due to the land sea differences in surface heating (e.g. afternoon convection over Land). We should see a more symmetrical storm tomorrow after the diurnal max has had a chance to allow convection to blossom over TD#2 now over open waters. It also appears to have gained enough latitude to buy itself 18-24 hours over water from here on out.  

I'm just basing it off the CIMSS analyzed wind shear.

[Ed Lizard]

In TD 2's favor for reaching minimum TS strength, close amateur staring at Gulf IR2 (they messed up floater IR2 presentation a couple years back), I think center may be relocated a shade North under deepest convection.

 

Kind of wish they hadn't canx today's 12Z mission.

[Amped]

I didn't mean for slopgyre to be a scientific term.

[wxmx]

Sat presentation is improving by the minute. This is very probably a TS now. There has been no latitude gain as of late, so I expect LF between Veracruz and Nautla in 24-36h, as I expect to slow down a bit more.

[Ed Lizard]

Despite Southerly shear as seen on WV, and probably some dry air issues with arcus to the North and West, it appears the center is covered and thunderstorms are trying to build Southward into the shear.  As of 10 minutes ago the plane hadn't descended to operational altitude, but I expect they'll find enough for an upgrade.

[phil882]

Peak non rain contaminated SFMR is already at 33 knots and recon is still another 20-30 minutes before reaching the surface center.

 

EDIT: Also seeing some 35+ knot SFMR obs that have little rain contamination (under 10mm/hr)

[dan88]

TROPICAL STORM BARRY TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022013

145 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

...SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF

MEXICO...

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO HAS STRENGTHENED...AND IS NOW TROPICAL

STORM BARRY...THE SECOND TROPICAL STORM OF THE 2013 HURRICANE

SEASON. DETAILS WILL FOLLOW IN THE NEXT REGULAR ADVISORY AT 4 PM

CDT.

SUMMARY OF 145 PM CDT...1845 UTC...INFORMATION

--------------------------------------------------

LOCATION...19.6N 95.1W

ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM ENE OF VERACRUZ MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...16 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER AVILA

[yoda]

Thanks to whoever updated the headline title

[Srain]

TROPICAL STORM BARRY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL022013
400 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE
INDICATE THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IN THE SOUTHERN BAY OF
CAMPECHE STRENGTHENED AND IS NOW TROPICAL STORM BARRY...THE SECOND
NAMED CYCLONE OF THE 2013 SEASON.  SFMR AND FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS FROM
THE AIRCRAFT YIELD AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS. SOME SFMR
VALUES WERE A LITTLE HIGHER...BUT THESE WINDS WERE RAIN
CONTAMINATED AND WERE DISCARDED. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR BARRY TO
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS. RAPID WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED AFTER THE CENTER MOVES
INLAND...BUT RAINS WILL CONTINUE.

BARRY HAS BEEN MOVING WESTWARD ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION  WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARS SPEED IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL. ONCE INLAND...AND THE CENTER
BECOMES DISRUPTED BY THE HIGH TERRAIN...THE REMNANT CIRCULATION
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD OVER THE STATE OF VERACRUZ UNTIL
DISSIPATION. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE A NARROW RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THIS FLOW PATTERN IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE FORECAST WESTWARD MOTION OF THE TROPICAL STORM.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO EMPHASIZE THAT REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK AND
WHETHER THE CYCLONE STRENGTHENS...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY
RAINFALL...WHICH COULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING OVER A LARGE
PORTION OF SOUTHERN MEXICO PRIMARILY IN THE STATE OF VERACRUZ DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SO PLEASE DO NOT FOCUS ON THE EXACT CENTER
LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  19/2100Z 19.6N  95.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
12H  20/0600Z 19.6N  96.2W   40 KT  45 MPH
24H  20/1800Z 19.6N  97.0W   25 KT  30 MPH...INLAND
36H  21/0600Z 19.5N  98.0W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H  21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA


 

[Floydbuster]

Not a bad start to Hurricane Season 2013. A moderate tropical storm that sloshes Florida, followed by a weak tropical storm that spins in the Bay of Campeche.

[gkrangers]

It doesn't look terrible.

[Srain]

Thanks to whoever updated the headline title

A good thread host would maintain their thread...just sayin'...

[U_Thant]

I didn't mean for slopgyre to be a scientific term.

 

Yeah, but I did.

[phil882]

Its too bad the recon mission was canceled last night, because Barry was most certainly intensifying earlier this morning. Nice convective bands wrapping around the center prior to landfall (which I'm not entire sure has occurred yet).