TalcottWx Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 There's a lot of stuff going on. You have the actual front. A south coast seabreeze. an east coast seabreeze. Cloudiness in some areas. A rectangle area from Waterbury-Plainfield-Providence-Taunton and up to Framingham-Worcester-Northhampton and back down to Waterbury has the best daytime heating, shear, convergence. Kevin to Steve G to Bob have the best outside chance at severe. I think the mass pike area specifically between ORH and Boston has the most flooding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 There's a lot of stuff going on. You have the actual front. A south coast seabreeze. an east coast seabreeze. Cloudiness in some areas. A rectangle area from Waterbury-Plainfield-Providence-Taunton and up to Framingham-Worcester-Northhampton and back down to Waterbury has the best daytime heating, shear, convergence. Kevin to Steve G to Bob have the best outside chance at severe. I think the mass pike area specifically between ORH and Boston has the most flooding potential. So, flooding threat not so much south of the MA line?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 There's a lot of stuff going on. You have the actual front. A south coast seabreeze. an east coast seabreeze. Cloudiness in some areas. A rectangle area from Waterbury-Plainfield-Providence-Taunton and up to Framingham-Worcester-Northhampton and back down to Waterbury has the best daytime heating, shear, convergence. Kevin to Steve G to Bob have the best outside chance at severe. I think the mass pike area specifically between ORH and Boston has the most flooding potential. It certainly doesn't hurt that this area is also seeing a pretty good amount of sunshine right now to heat things up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 outside of the cell in PSM...did any of the lines that came through yesterday verify as severe? i know there were damage reports but i didn't see any actual wind or hail reports. If it didn't hit an ASOS it didn"t happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 So, flooding threat not so much south of the MA line?? Oh, theres definitely a threat. I was just outlining areas that I was making a guess at. If your anywhere SE of the heavy showers, they are slow movers. if you look at the thin milky cloud deck moving NW, I bet the showers intensify when they meet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 stuff in eastern ny is looking better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 If it didn't hit an ASOS it didn"t happen? i don't know. i was just asking. i didn't see any unofficial gust reports or hail reports. that's what i was asking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Can see it here http://i1287.photobucket.com/albums/a640/jksb617/front_zpsa68d35c3.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Mod rain here atm, sun never made it out this morning so no heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Seems unique setup w weak lp moving from delmarva ne to offshore sne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 suns been out all morning here hoping for some good stuff to make it this way Mod rain here atm, sun never made it out this morning so no heating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Helicity values are borderline high enough to certainly warrant the potential for supercells or a brief spinup. Instability values are meh though and given strong shear we'll need some help to get robust and mature enough updrafts to really utilize this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Does that rain in Mid Atl slide south under us, or is that coming up the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Does that rain in Mid Atl slide south under us, or is that coming up the coast? May slide towards southern areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Looking forward to updated mesoanalysis for 16z around 12:23 or so...but I'll be cleaning the zamboni at that time so will just check once I'm done. I brought my laptop to work so when things happen I can track. I'm only sharpening skates so i'm on my own schedule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 i don't know. i was just asking. i didn't see any unofficial gust reports or hail reports. that's what i was asking. No I know, I often wondered how they judge wind reports from non official stations. I saw IJD gusted to 44 , I was about 3 miles SE and at the field it was much higher. I have been down there in 40-45 mph gusts and this was above that in our particular area. Trees bent over to the ground and some snapped, a big size portopotty was sent flying. I would rate it as severe but would love to see if any home station caught it. I know Portsmouth had one yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Looks like there's a meso on that cell West of NorthHampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 As weak as the stuff along the Rt. 2 corridor is, the radar presentation definitely suggests vigorous dynamics. If they can hold for a couple hours while the warm front sharpens we might have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 That storm getting ready to enter Berk county is borderline severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 There's some more instability in place down in these parts. Not a lot, but it could be enough to make things interesting once the line drops far enough south: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Lapse rates look like they get worse through the day so instability is really meh. MLCAPE probably <1000 j/kg through the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Whoa! My dew just shot up to 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Whoa! My dew just shot up to 68. That should really help these storms out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 As weak as the stuff along the Rt. 2 corridor is, the radar presentation definitely suggests vigorous dynamics. If they can hold for a couple hours while the warm front sharpens we might have something. That line formed S of Greenfield despite how the radar looked. I could see the sky getting dark further down the valley but already brightening over my house with only a faint rumble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Looks like quite a line forming now from NE Pa into NW Mass. Couple close to severe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 18, 2013 Author Share Posted June 18, 2013 Lapse rates look like they get worse through the day so instability is really meh. MLCAPE probably <1000 j/kg through the day. There is that pocket of around 6 to our west...perhaps that can move overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Whoa! My dew just shot up to 68. Maybe that cell over SW Berks can light you up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 There is that pocket of around 6 to our west...perhaps that can move overhead 500mb temps are progged to warm through the day slightly so I wouldn't expect much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Dew points in far Ne Ct still low 60's, but south towards Kevin/IJD up in the mid 60's http://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/mesomap.cgi?lat=41.97560&lon=-72.38670&radius=90&rawsflag=290 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 looks like a little bit of rotation with that cell entering berkshire county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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