ag3 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 We'll see how it works out - I hadnt taken a close look at last nights euro was it more convective/storms or just a widespread rain? I only saw soundings. .20"-.30" from 8am to 2pm. And then another .20"-.30" from 2pm to 8pm. So I assume its not all convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 I hope you are right, but the euro for 3 straight runs has shown 75-80 degree highs with widespread rain from 8am to 8pm. Make it 4 straight runs. 12z euro has the same exact .50"-.75" of rain from 8am to 8pm and temps of 75-80 degrees. Today's run ticked a little cooler and is more of a 74-78 degree type day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 Make it 4 straight runs. 12z euro has the same exact .50"-.75" of rain from 8am to 8pm and temps of 75-80 degrees. Today's run ticked a little cooler and is more of a 74-78 degree type day. Im still thinking its more scattered (with some heavier amounts) and like today when its sunny -it'll be quite warm to hot with high HI's. Simiar to this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 28, 2013 Share Posted June 28, 2013 Im still thinking its more scattered and like today when its sunny -it'll be quite warm to hot with high HI's. Simiar to this weekend That's not what the euro has been showing though. Euro is an actual weak system riding up the trough and leaves our area with a miserable cloudy and rainy day. I'm hoping the timing is off and it can be moved up to Wednesday or delayed to Friday since I already committing to lighting major fireworks in Queens on the 4th of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 That's not what the euro has been showing though. Euro is an actual weak system riding up the trough and leaves our area with a miserable cloudy and rainy day. I'm hoping the timing is off and it can be moved up to Wednesday or delayed to Friday since I already committing to lighting major fireworks in Queens on the 4th of July. It'll work out ag3. Watch the ecm come more in line to match the gfs, ggem and esnembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 The overnight models, including the Euro have a stronger WAR for the middle of next week. If the trend continues, July 4th may a bit hot and humid now with just isolated/scattered late day t-storm threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 The overnight models, including the Euro have a stronger WAR for the middle of next week. If the trend continues, July 4th may a bit hot and humid now with just isolated/scattered late day t-storm threat. Agreed as this has been consistent on latest guidance. Still think we are in partly cloudy with scattered showers/storms some of which could be drenches. Temps in the 85-90 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 0z euro took away the all day rain for July 4th and increased temps to the mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 0z euro took away the all day rain for July 4th and increased temps to the mid 80s. That WAR really builds in between jul 3 and the 5th. A very steamy period ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 Euro has been all over the place..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 12z euro continues to be mostly dry and warm. Temps around 85 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 4 days to go and the 4th continue s to look very warm and humid with only isolated storms. 85 - 90 perhaps higher if the WAR builds in as sown on the latest guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 Does the 3rd look nice now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 Does the 3rd look nice now? 3rd seems better than mon/tue and more conventive (scattered). Warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 30, 2013 Share Posted June 30, 2013 500mb heights and 850mb temps 17-18C, with enough sun, support highs near 90 on July 4th and 5th. However SSW winds, we keep coastal spots a little cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 72 hours till the 4th and mos of the guidance is conistsent in building the WAR bak raising heights to 592 DM (+). This will keep widespread convetion/rain well west of the area starting wed PM. The 4th looks mainly dry with very warm temps in the upper 80s to low 90s. Heat index very high. Cant fully rule out an isolated storm in this tropical airmass. Flow is SSW to SW which should improve beach goers weather s well http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8Ipq9YRUI7I Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 Euro continues to be mostly dry and about 85 degrees. It does show the typical summer type afternoon/evening convection. But not the surface low it had a few runs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 48 hours to go and the 4th looks good with temps near 90, isolated tstorm and party sunny. That weather looks to continue throughout the holiday weeekend 7/5 - 7/7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 48 hours to go and the 4th looks good with temps near 90, isolated tstorm and party sunny. That weather looks to continue throughout the holiday weeekend 7/5 - 7/7 ..love the updates,sacrus..big weekend out here..need some good beach weather..hoping that WAR does the job. 72*,cloudy,S wind, and down right sh..opps i mean lousy. OCM note: bill corbel (news12 LI) last nite said the clearing is coming "from the west"..c'mon man..thats just wrong!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 48 hours to go and the 4th looks good with temps near 90, isolated tstorm and party sunny. That weather looks to continue throughout the holiday weeekend 7/5 - 7/7 At this juncture, the days from the 8th-10th look like they may be the hottest days of this stretch. Of course, that could change. Those right now are the days I think temperatures could rise to the mid 90s. That's definitely not a sure things, but a possibility. Beyond the 8th and 9th, the outlook gets a little trickier, with a weak frontal system nearby not far to our north and nw gradually sagging se-ward, and moisture beginning to stream n-e-ward out of the Gulf States once again. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2013 Author Share Posted July 3, 2013 7/4 : Hazy, Hot and Humid high near 90 heat index mid/upper 90s. Isolated afternoon storm. Fireworks should go without a hitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 7/4 : Hazy, Hot and Humid high near 90 heat index mid/upper 90s. Isolated afternoon storm. Fireworks should go without a hitch. You did a GREAT job from a week out calling for 85-90, hazy and humid. Euro for several runs argued and was showing an all day washout with temps of 75-79 but you didn't sway. Good job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 3, 2013 Author Share Posted July 3, 2013 You did a GREAT job from a week out calling for 85-90, hazy and humid. Euro for several runs argued and was showing an all day washout with temps of 75-79 but you didn't sway. Good job. thanks ag3 it was fun to track and discuss Note - still 24 hours to go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 I agree with Ag3. Great call Sacrus, credit where credit's due. I was also one who thought the rainy/lower temps would last into the 4th. We've got a nice heat wave to look forward to from potentially the 4th through the 8th/10th period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxoutlooksblog Posted July 3, 2013 Share Posted July 3, 2013 At this juncture, the days from the 8th-10th look like they may be the hottest days of this stretch. Of course, that could change. Those right now are the days I think temperatures could rise to the mid 90s. That's definitely not a sure things, but a possibility. Beyond the 8th and 9th, the outlook gets a little trickier, with a weak frontal system nearby not far to our north and nw gradually sagging se-ward, and moisture beginning to stream n-e-ward out of the Gulf States once again. WX/PT A day later, a little dip in the jet stream/shortwave swings through here around Monday, adding storms and preventing us from reaching the extremely hot levels the 8th-10th. After the 10th, some more meaningful cooling and rainfall with yet another stalled out frontal system nearby. WX/PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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