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June 15-18 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1119

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0104 PM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL THROUGH SWRN IND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 181804Z - 181930Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL

IL AND SWRN IND BY 19Z. STRONGER STORMS WILL BECOME CAPABLE OF

PRODUCING ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

DISCUSSION...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CNTRL OH THROUGH

SRN IND AND CNTRL IL. DIABATIC WARMING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER

WITH LOW 60S DEWPOINTS AND 6.5-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL

SUPPORT MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH 1500-2000 J/KG MLCAPE. VISIBLE

IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS DEVELOPING OVER CNTRL IL WITHIN ZONE OF MODEST

FRONTAL CONVERGENCE...AND THE 12Z LINCOLN IL SOUNDING MODIFIED FOR

CURRENT SURFACE CONDITIONS INDICATES VERY LITTLE CAP REMAINING.

MOREOVER...MID LEVEL ASCENT WITH SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING SEWD

TOWARD CNTRL IL WILL FURTHER AID THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM

DEVELOPMENT. WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3 KM ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...BUT

EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENT FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION AND AT LEAST

SOME MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP SEWD

WITH TIME. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL BE THE MAIN

THREATS.

..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 06/18/2013

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What's both impressive and annoying is that just about the same areas in DTX's CWA got hit with both discrete supercells on 6/17/13.

 

061713_animation.gif

Should have drove to intercept, it is not like these were moving at 100mph or anything like that. A quick jog up I-94 or I-75 would have put in position for both

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