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June 15-18 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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Thanks guys :) I've been lucky to catch some nice storms in ON this summer, we've had a pretty active pattern, particularly compared to last year. Of course, I drove around for 4 hours across the province, then managed to catch that storm a mere 10 minutes from my house. That's weather for you I guess.

 

Looking like more storms may fire up today, similar situation to DTX where we will be dependent on strong forcing and good shear to overcome lack of instability and lower dews today. I'm thinking the Erie shoreline as a target area to start.

Hrrr blows up a nice storm in S. Ontario

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SSEO shows some nice updraft helicities in extreme SW Ontario at 00Z. Looks promising but I think I'll sit this one out... bit too far of a drive/hit on the wallet. And like I mentioned before the storm motion really only gives storms about an hour over Ontario.

 

ImPmacA.png

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Keeping an eye on the lake breeze over Detroit.

KDET has a SE wind while KDTW has a SW wind. Anything that grows out of that CU field will likely rotate.

But of course, I don't expect much to happen, between the downsloping and the fact that it's in a region of somewhat less large scale forcing andinstability.

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Keeping an eye on the lake breeze over Detroit.

KDET has a SE wind while KDTW has a SW wind. Anything that grows out of that CU field will likely rotate.

But of course, I don't expect much to happen, between the downsloping and the fact that it's in a region of somewhat less large scale forcing andinstability.

 

You can see that lake breeze boundary on radar. Will be interesting to watch as that storm heads towards it.

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The Warning.

 

TORNADO WARNINGWIC015-071-172045-/O.NEW.KGRB.TO.W.0002.130617T2020Z-130617T2045Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI320 PM CDT MON JUN 17 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  NORTHEASTERN CALUMET COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...  MANITOWOC COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN...* UNTIL 345 PM CDT* AT 317 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES EAST OF HIGH CLIFF STATE PARK...AND  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. A TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED A FUNNEL CLOUD  WITH THE STORM.  HAZARD...TORNADO.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. DAMAGE TO           ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS           WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. TREE DAMAGE IS           LIKELY.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...  BRILLION AROUND 325 PM CDT.  VALDERS AROUND 335 PM CDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WELLS...REEDSVILLE...COLLINS...MAPLE GROVE...GRIMMS...CLARKS MILLS...TAUS...CATO...WHITELAW AND REIFS MILLS.
Looks to move to just north of Sheboygan.

Few cells popping up in southern WI as well.

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Severe Thunderstorm Warning just issued for Western Lambton County and the Municipality of Chatham-Kent in SW ON. Same chasers that were on the London supercell yesterday are positioned in the Municipality of Chatham-Kent today.

799 
WUCN11 CWTO 172051
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 4:51 PM EDT MONDAY 17 JUNE 2013.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:
=NEW= SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY
=NEW= CHATHAM-KENT - RONDEAU PARK.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
UPDATED OR ENDED BY 6:00 PM EDT.

AT 4:40 PM EDT, METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WITH A HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OVER LOWER
MICHIGAN AND TRACKING RAPIDLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE NORTHERN
SHORE AREA OF LAKE ST CLAIR.

COMMUNITIES IN THE PATH INCLUDE: WALPOLE ISLAND AND WALLACEBURG.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS THAT YOU TAKE COVER
IMMEDIATELY, IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL CAN DAMAGE PROPERTY AND CAUSE INJURIES.
LOCAL DOWNPOURS CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODS.

GO INDOORS AND MOVE AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND SKYLIGHTS. AVOID AREAS OF
THE BUILDING THAT COULD BE AFFECTED BY FALLING DEBRIS SUCH AS TREE
LIMBS. STAY ON THE LOWER FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUILDING AND IF THE
STORM IS PARTICULARLY SEVERE GO TO THE BASEMENT.

AVOID DRIVING THROUGH WATER ON ROADS. EVEN SHALLOW FAST MOVING WATER
ACROSS A ROAD CAN SWEEP A VEHICLE AWAY.

REMEMBER, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES.

IN CANADA, LIGHTNING KILLS UP TO 10 PEOPLE EVERY YEAR. REMEMBER,
WHEN THUNDER ROARS, GO INDOORS.

FOR MORE INFORMATION:
HTTP://WWW.EMERGENCYMANAGEMENTONTARIO.CA/ENGLISH/BEPREPARED/BEPREPARED.HTML
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Took this picture 6 miles SE of Goodrich, MI at 4:10 p.m., which was about 10 minutes after this storm produced 2" hail 5 miles NNW of Davison, MI. This was reasonably interesting structure by Michigan standards, and it continued to have interesting structure for a while. Since it was moving SE at 40-45 mph into a populated area during rush hour, I didn't have time to get out of my car and take additional pictures after this one...and then I ended up losing the storm anyways despite getting myself into good position at the start. Oh well.

 

IMG_6171_zps7dd4b0c5.jpg

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Shelf cloud from the second storm was absolutely incredible. This was 5 miles west of Rochester, MI at 7:30 p.m.

IMG_6180_zps8ca41d15.jpg

Ended up intercepting the same storm that was severe just a bit ago, only dime sized hail and winds to 50mph. Sucks because it had beautiful structure and green skies while driving toward it. Alas better luck next time.
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Ended up intercepting the same storm that was severe just a bit ago, only dime sized hail and winds to 50mph. Sucks because it had beautiful structure and green skies while driving toward it. Alas better luck next time.

 

That structure was ridiculous. Also I'm not sure why I made the same mistake as the first one today, w/ regards to trying to keep up with it. It's just about impossible to keep up with storms in the Detroit Metro when they're moving at 40-45 mph, better to just get in an open area and let it pass over you unless it has a really big hail core. Oh well, I'll keep that in mind next time. Still an amazing day, and really, quite an active season around these parts thus far.

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Anything reported out of Canada? I saw that cell north of Leamington with a very strong couplet on radar today

Just some severe going through the Weather Network's twitter feed however I found this gem in there.

 

BM_6z4jCAAEk7Pl.jpg

 

https://twitter.com/adolwyn/status/346771465586212864/photo/1

This might be one of the more incredible storm structures I have ever seen, this was in Alberta.

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SPC now has a slight risk area across the southern half of IL/IN/OH for today.

 

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK 
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT TUE JUN 18 2013

   VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING FOR SRN PARTS OF IL/IND/OH AND FAR NRN KY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
   ACROSS SRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO CENTRAL PARTS OF SD/NEB...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL ID INTO NWRN AND NORTH CENTRAL MT...

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE NERN PACIFIC CLOSED LOW AND ATTENDANT TROUGH WILL ADVANCE EWD
   INTO THE WRN STATES THIS FORECAST PERIOD TAKING ON A NEGATIVE
   TILT...WITH THE LOW CENTERED ALONG THE WA/ORE COASTS AND THE TROUGH
   EXTENDING SEWD THROUGH NV BY 12Z WED.  AN UPPER RIDGE CURRENTLY
   CENTERED OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SUBSEQUENTLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE
   PLAINS. A WEAK IMPULSE IS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD THROUGH THE RIDGE
   CROSSING THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND REACHING THE CENTRAL PLAINS BY 12Z
   WED. MIDLEVEL FLOW IN THE NERN STATES WILL WEAKEN TODAY AS AN
   ATTENDANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES EWD FROM QUEBEC TO THE CANADIAN
   MARITIMES.  A PROMINENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY TRACKING SEWD
   THROUGH THE ERN DAKOTAS PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WILL MOVE INTO THE
   LOWER OH VALLEY REGION DURING PEAK HEATING...WHILE A LOWER TN VALLEY
   TROUGH SHIFTS EWD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SWD THROUGH THE OH
   VALLEY...AND SEWD THROUGH NY/PA AND SRN NEW ENGLAND.  MEANWHILE...A
   COLD FRONT ATTENDANT TO THE WRN U.S. TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
   THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND REACH WRN MT TONIGHT.

   ...OH VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES AND SRN NEW ENGLAND...
   THE COMBINATION OF SURFACE HEATING ACROSS THE OH VALLEY TODAY...
   SURFACE DEW POINTS AROUND 60 F AND MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF 6.5 TO 7
   C/KM ACCOMPANYING THE ERN DAKOTAS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD RESULT IN
   A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS FROM IL TO OH. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE MAY NOT BE TOO STRONG ALONG THE SWD MOVING FRONT...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED
   TO SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MLCAPE TO AT LEAST 1000 J/KG AND
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT PARALLEL TO THE FRONT SUGGEST LINE
   SEGMENTS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY STORM MODE...THOUGH A FEW SUPERCELLS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE. DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS...WITH ACTIVITY DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY DURING THE EVENING
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES. 

   FARTHER EAST ACROSS PA TO SRN NEW ENGLAND...TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS GIVEN 35-40 KT OF
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.  HOWEVER...WEAKER INSTABILITY SHOULD LIMIT THE
   OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...AND PRECLUDES HIGHER PROBABILITIES
   AND THE EWD EXTENSION OF THE SLIGHT RISK.

   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THE LOWER TN VALLEY TROUGH WILL
   SPREAD ACROSS VA/MD THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...AND SHOULD
   SUPPORT SOME TSTM DEVELOPMENT. MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE DEGREE OF
   DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT
   RISK...THOUGH 30-40 KT WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE TROUGH
   COULD PROMOTE SOME STORM ORGANIZATION.  THUS...THIS OUTLOOK WILL
   EXTEND LOW SEVERE WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES SWD ACROSS MD/VA.

 

 

post-4544-0-29918400-1371538416_thumb.gi

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