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June 15-18 Severe Weather


Chicago Storm

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There is a tornado warning for the city of Greater Sudbury Ontario. On radar there looks to be a weak hook and EC just issued a more or less strongly worded one saying a tornado is "likely" occurring with it. Moving SE and looks south of the city but it can shift rapidly (like El Reno EF5 from weeks ago).

just a dumb question here. but will EC/MSC ever make the radar feeds from up there available for GR3/2? because i have to admit, from the wunderground radar, those cells are looking impressive, and it would be nice to get a better look than we get attm with the radars available.

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just a dumb question here. but will EC/MSC ever make the radar feeds from up there available for GR3/2? because i have to admit, from the wunderground radar, those cells are looking impressive, and it would be nice to get a better look than we get attm with the radars available.

 

Would be nice that is for sure, unfortunately I don't believe they are available at this point

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Would be nice that is for sure, unfortunately I don't believe they are available at this point

i know they aren't attm, but it would be nice if some point in the future they would finally release that. I honestly think canadian weather people would know how to use it.

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I am pretty impressed by the tornado warned storm heading toward London, that storm at least per wunderground's site has pretty good structure to it. It also definitely has mid level rotation with it per DTX's radar albeit the beam is hitting the storm at 8300'.

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I am pretty impressed by the tornado warned storm heading toward London, that storm at least per wunderground's site has pretty good structure to it. It also definitely has mid level rotation with it per DTX's radar albeit the beam is hitting the storm at 8300'.

Ya it does look pretty good right now. Seems like a bit of a hook and some good rotation on Exeter.

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The supercells up near Sudbury look a lot like LP supercells. I would not be shocked to find out that there were tornadoes with those 2 supercells.

there was a twitter report of a tornado on the ground near whitefish, sw of YSB.

 

there's actually now a line of 3 storms up there. the whitefish storm i think is SE of whitefish, the one due south of YSB is now on its way to rutter, and a 3rd storm is starting to get its act together south of noelville. 

 

as for the YXU area, that cell near strathroy is looking decent on the limited velocity available, as well, the one heading up towards ingersol and woodstock isn't looking bad.

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Any updates on the stuff heading for London?   You guys have access to radar info. that I don't have.

 

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=1&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.478&noclutter=0&ID=WSO&type=C0R&showstorms=None&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.478&centerx=362&centery=33&showlabels=1&rainsnow=1&lightning=1&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=1

 

try this for a starter. they do have a limited velocity product available on there, but mainly base velocity, not relative.

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Any updates on the stuff heading for London?   You guys have access to radar info. that I don't have.

Can you take some pics? I saw that wall cloud and funnel pic and this is quite the tornadic storm. Guess what though? The main TV channel for London (currently called CTV2) doesn't even have a watch or warning at all! And you can forget about breaking weather coverage on there, its almost never done. There could be a tornado going through downtown London and the channel would have nothing  :axe: .

 

Need a storm magnet! Am seeing the photos from Spencer Sills, David Chapman and Dave Patrick on twitter. Would be surprised if it didn't produce 1 tornado along its life so far. 

Can you link some of those because I don't know their twitter handles or otherwise. That would be Dave's 2nd tornado this year in Ontario then.

 

I wish TWN would have some more in-depth coverage for London because they aren't communicating with any chaser or media...and no mets talking on camera either about all this. Sunday night and Father's Day? Shouldn't matter.

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Nasty storm here.  Spent the last 2 hours dealing with a flooded portion of the basement and crawlspace, as was our next door neighbour.   The hail was about nickel or quarter sized and was still on the ground an hour later.  The trees and vegetation around here sure took a beating but are all still standing I believe on our street .  I am not sure how the rest of the city made out as I've been too busy to find out.   The heavy rain was pelting down for about a minute before the winds really started cranking.  They only lasted about a minute or two as well and then all was basically calm.   Sure looked like a weak version of some of those videos I've seen posted here.   That's enough severe for me for a while...................... I'm off to get cleaned up and get ready for work tomorrow.  Thanks to all for the info as the storm was approaching.

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no problem. besides, it looks like it's the toronto area's turn. the east end as well as peterborough are already getting hit (maybe even scarberia near morningside) with trenton and prince edward county in an hour; looks like downtown in about an hour or so as well as etobicoke, but it should only graze the TWN studios on the oakville/mississagua line. after to, maybe the north side of buffalo as well as east of ROC towards oswego, depending on if the storms survive across the lake better than any proposed ferry would.

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just a dumb question here. but will EC/MSC ever make the radar feeds from up there available for GR3/2? because i have to admit, from the wunderground radar, those cells are looking impressive, and it would be nice to get a better look than we get attm with the radars available.

Man that would be excellent. I have my doubts though, particularly with the constant EC budget cuts. They only started doing thunderstorm outlooks this year! No maps either just a text update, every 12 hours...

 

Anyway. I went out to chase today but due to bad timing I could only watch the tornado warned cell from the north.

 

On my way home I captured this photo of this cell in Oakville, ON. Not sure if it was rotating or what as I didn't have radar open but the structure was beautiful. Bonus that I managed to get the moon and the storm in one shot. 30secs may have been a bit long of an exposure (tad blurry), but I'm still quite happy with this one.

 

1GzYTlY.jpg

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^ Man that is one awesome shot.  Wow.

Definitely, that shot is marvelous. Its the type you see in books and mags. Congrats Harrisale, that and the wall cloud one on June 1 have been Ontario's finest!

 

I'm peeved that I missed the anvil crawlers just 20 minutes to my south, the storms built up nicely around 9:30 pm and I did see some towers towards the south and found out about the lightning coming off them. It would have been a nice show if I was 5 again since I was around that very area when I was small. All I got was a quick downpour and the storms died...

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Today has some sneaky potential I'd say....

 

DTX

 

GREATER PROSPECTS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FOCUS  
INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD...AS THE ADVANCING FRONTAL  
SLOPE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH THE PEAK HEATING  
CYCLE. SOLID WINDOW WILL EXIST TO CAPITALIZE ON DAYTIME HEATING  
GIVEN THE FRONTAL TIMING...A HIGH DEGREE OF PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION  
WORKING INTO A WELL MIXED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY  
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE  
ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. THIS DEGREE OF WARMTH APPEARS  
NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE APPARENT LACK OF BETTER LOW LEVEL  
MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 50S/. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE  
INITIATION WILL REQUIRE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...DEVELOPMENT/  
EXPANSION MOST FAVORED AFTER 20Z AS MLCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1500 J/KG  
INVOF INCREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE  
AREA. A SUPPRESSED HEIGHT FIELD WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE  
RATES THROUGH THIS TIME...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR  
CONVECTION TO QUICKLY ATTAIN BETTER UPDRAFT STRENGTH WHERE THE LOW  
LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS BECOME SUPPORTIVE. A STRONG AND LARGELY  
UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE...YIELDING 0-6  
KM BULK SHEAR PUSHING 45 KNOTS. AT THE VERY LEAST...GIVEN THIS WIND  
FIELD AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE WIND  
GUSTS AND HAIL WILL EXIST. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL WITHIN  
THIS SETUP FOR A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EPISODE TO EVOLVE AND  
EXPAND SOUTH/EAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS. 

 

mxuphl_f26.gif

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Today has some sneaky potential I'd say....

DTX

GREATER PROSPECTS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL FOCUS

INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PERIOD...AS THE ADVANCING FRONTAL

SLOPE ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA COINCIDENT WITH THE PEAK HEATING

CYCLE. SOLID WINDOW WILL EXIST TO CAPITALIZE ON DAYTIME HEATING

GIVEN THE FRONTAL TIMING...A HIGH DEGREE OF PRE-FRONTAL INSOLATION

WORKING INTO A WELL MIXED WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW AND RELATIVELY DRY

BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BRING HIGHS INTO THE 80 TO 85 DEGREE RANGE

ACROSS ALL BUT THE FAR NORTH. THIS DEGREE OF WARMTH APPEARS

NECESSARY TO OVERCOME THE APPARENT LACK OF BETTER LOW LEVEL

MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS MID-UPPER 50S/. THIS SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE

INITIATION WILL REQUIRE A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY...DEVELOPMENT/

EXPANSION MOST FAVORED AFTER 20Z AS MLCAPE VALUES APPROACH 1500 J/KG

INVOF INCREASING FRONTAL CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE

AREA. A SUPPRESSED HEIGHT FIELD WILL MAINTAIN STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE

RATES THROUGH THIS TIME...PROVIDING A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR

CONVECTION TO QUICKLY ATTAIN BETTER UPDRAFT STRENGTH WHERE THE LOW

LEVEL THERMODYNAMICS BECOME SUPPORTIVE. A STRONG AND LARGELY

UNIDIRECTIONAL MID LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL BE IN PLACE...YIELDING 0-6

KM BULK SHEAR PUSHING 45 KNOTS. AT THE VERY LEAST...GIVEN THIS WIND

FIELD AND LOWER FREEZING LEVELS...AN ISOLATED RISK FOR SEVERE WIND

GUSTS AND HAIL WILL EXIST. THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL WITHIN

THIS SETUP FOR A MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE EPISODE TO EVOLVE AND

EXPAND SOUTH/EAST WITH TIME THROUGH THE LATE EVENING HOURS.

mxuphl_f26.gif

As long as the dew points don't mix out below 50 we should be good to go for a potential. Very nice inverted-V soundings shown in the models and around 1000-1500 J/kg will be enough to do the job with the shear and forcing in place.
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Thanks guys :) I've been lucky to catch some nice storms in ON this summer, we've had a pretty active pattern, particularly compared to last year. Of course, I drove around for 4 hours across the province, then managed to catch that storm a mere 10 minutes from my house. That's weather for you I guess.

 

Looking like more storms may fire up today, similar situation to DTX where we will be dependent on strong forcing and good shear to overcome lack of instability and lower dews today. I'm thinking the Erie shoreline as a target area to start.

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