DaculaWeather Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA426 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...WILL HAVE A QUIET START TO THE DAY ACROSS THE CWA WEATHER WISE ANDWILL HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO HEAT UP BEFORE AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON ANDEVENING OF EXPECTED SEVERE WEATHER. SPC CONTINUES TO INCLUDETHE AREA IN A HIGH END SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGINGWIND WITH THE LINE OF STORMS BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO EXPECTED.ALTHOUGH THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE EXTENT OF THESEVERE WEATHER...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVEREWEATHER EVENT...PARTICULARLY IN REGARDS TO WIND DAMAGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 410 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 NCZ007>011-024>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089-140815- PERSON-GRANVILLE-VANCE-WARREN-HALIFAX-ORANGE-DURHAM-FRANKLIN-NASH- EDGECOMBE-CHATHAM-WAKE-JOHNSTON-WILSON-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-WAYNE- RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE-CUMBERLAND-SAMPSON- 410 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. A POTENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRACK RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES TODAY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE PIEDMONT BY MID AFTERNOON...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS AND EVENTUALLY DEVELOPING INTO A SQUALL LINE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS THEY MOVE QUICKLY EAST ACROSS THE TRIANGLE AND INTO THE COASTAL PLAIN. DUE TO AN UNUSUALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION...ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 65 MPH AND QUARTER TO GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...THE COMBINATION OF A HUMID AIRMASS AND HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDICES AS HIGH AS 100 TO 102 DEGREES FOR SEVERAL HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED ALONG AND EAST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER AT WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV AND BE PREPARED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS LATER TODAY. $$ VINCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 From Atlanta NWS office: SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED STARTING AT 200 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE FORECAST AND PROGRESSION OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Here are the soundings for various areas in the SE. We're at about 2300 J/KG right now http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sounding_se.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow havent seen parameters like this in eastern NC a while much less at 10:30 in the morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Here are the soundings for various areas in the SE. We're at about 2300 J/KG right now http://www.daculaweather.com/4_sounding_se.php GSO is checking in with a whopping MLCAPE 525 J/KG. I can't find Raleigh on your list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Believe it or not, Raleigh is not on the list of stations that the SPC is reporting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Last time we saw instability like this was July 1 2012 and that turned into a heck of a day. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/EventReviews/20120701/20120701.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 CAE doesn't seem concerned .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WILL BECOME SUPPRESSED THROUGH THE DAY ASVIGOROUS S/W BEGINS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THEMID ATLANTIC REGION. STILL EXPECT VERY WARM CONDITIONS WITH SOMEDOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS EARLY IN THE DAY AND MOST LIKELYWILL BE THE WARMEST DAY THIS SUMMER. WILL STAY NEAR A CONSENSUS OFTHE GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 90S NORTH TOTHE UPPER 90S ELSEWHERE. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL ALSO BE ON THERISE RANGING FROM 100 TO 106 DEGREES...BUT STILL BELOW THEADVISORY THRESHOLD OF 110-114 FOR 2 HOURS OR MORE. MODELS INOVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH S/W DROPPING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEYTO THE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION DRAGGING ANOTHER COLD FRONT BYTONIGHT. THIS WILL GIVE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS ANDTHUNDERSTORMS MAINLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.MENTION OF CHANCE POPS LOOKS REASONABLE. SPC HAS AREA OUTLOOKEDFOR A SLIGHT RISK FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.ALTHOUGH THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS AND BETTER MOISTURE APPEAR TO BEMAINLY TO OUR NORTH...ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME MODERATELYUNSTABLE. LOCAL WRF SHOWS A SQUALL LINE MOVING INTO THE UPSTATELATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA FROM 23ZTHROUGH 04Z. THINK AT THIS TIME...THIS IS A GOOD ESTIMATING ONTIMING OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULDBE SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS...BUT ALSOSOME LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END ASTHE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE 04Z- 06Z FRIDAYTIME FRAME. OVERNIGHT MAINLY IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Yea, when I read possible "significant widespread severe weather event" I started getting a little more worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Believe it or not, Raleigh is not on the list of stations that the SPC is reporting. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 GSO is checking in with a whopping MLCAPE 525 J/KG. I can't find Raleigh on your list. Interesting that the SPC is not carrying Raleigh's soundings at present. They are the source for Dac's soundings page. See http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundings/ ps...Oops....Did not refresh while I was drilling down from Dac's links! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Here in Wilmington it's already 92.2 degrees in my backyard, and only 11:14. I knew it would be hot, but not this hot. This line will explode tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I bet a we get 6500+ scape somewhere in eastern NC or coastal SC by the time it is all said and done... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Upgrade coming by SPC to moderate for most of NC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Upgrade coming by SPC to moderate for most of NC! This is wise based on the parameters things are primed to really go nuts in NC as that line comes out of West Virginia......either that or a new line will fire on the leeside trough just west of the triad and race SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This is going to be a very interesting day across all of the Southeast. Already the storms in Kentucky are forming into mulitple lines and are warned. The sun has started to come out and the atmosphere was pretty unstable even before the sun is coming out. The parameters are the best looking I've seen in a long time for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This is going to be a very interesting day across all of the Southeast. Already the storms in Kentucky are forming into mulitple lines and are warned. The sun has started to come out and the atmosphere was pretty unstable even before the sun is coming out. The parameters are the best looking I've seen in a long time for my area. The first line seems to be coalescing as it moves into far SW VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Upgrade coming by SPC to moderate for most of NC! I was hoping to avoid this today. My son's last t-ball game is supposed to be this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Another important factor that the Ral NWS has mentioned several times....is the saturated grounds, trees could come down easier than usual. I could see the potential for this to look like a tc has come through after it's said and done with widespread trees down and extended power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 GSO is checking in with a whopping MLCAPE 525 J/KG. I can't find Raleigh on your list. While Morehead is approaching 3000........too bad there isn't a sounding between Morehead and Greensboro right in the heart of the mod area.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 While Morehead is approaching 3000........too bad there isn't a sounding between Morehead and Greensboro right in the heart of the mod area.... Its pretty insane outside here right now, a oppressive airmass for sure currently 95 with a 73 DP MLcape is over 5000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Any ideas as to why there is no tornado watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Under a warning now as the first line is about overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Any ideas as to why there is no tornado watch?Because conditions aren't favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Most likely they will issue a severe thunderstorm watch for NC. Ha I'm in NC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Because conditions aren't favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Most likely they will issue a severe thunderstorm watch for NC. Ha I'm in NC now. I suppose not favorable for a lot of tornadoes or strong tornadoes, but is it really possible there will be 0 tornadoes at all in NC today? Just doesn't seem likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Here, the main threat is primarily a wind and hail event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 But isolated tornadoes can't be ruled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Because conditions aren't favorable for the formation of tornadoes. Most likely they will issue a severe thunderstorm watch for NC. Ha I'm in NC now. You should stop by and see Burns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 You should stop by and see Burns! beat me to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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