Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 50/50 odds we see little to none You'll get over an inch...and another raw/cold rainy day in this miserable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 You'll get over an inch...and another raw/cold rainy day in this miserable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 so you think south trend is done? Probably. But it doesn't have to be for you to still get a half inch of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 50/50 odds we see little to none who cares about Friday! but Saturday and Sunday are going to be great.. great Fathers day weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Never thought i would say this with a system going south but the trend up here is our friendYeah, this is prolly the first time I'm heading north to avoid a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yeah, this is prolly the first time I'm heading north to avoid a storm. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Last time you did that you ended up up with 3+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Good trends.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Good trends.. http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hires_2013061212_ref_east.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow. Big shift south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hires_2013061212_ref_east.gif Still probably a little south to whatever previous runs had implied, no? I hadn't been looking at the meso models too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow. Big shift south You know I have to abmit I'm a bit shocked that they WPC is pushing everything so far south and weakening it just based off one model suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That map is only valid until 00z Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 did they update the 48 hr image as well (thru 0z sat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 My bad, this should cover the whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 new upton forecast has 3-5 inches for my area - Showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 3pm. High near 66. East wind 9 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New rainfall amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible. Thursday Night Rain and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 55. Northeast wind 15 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between 2 and 3 inches possible. Friday Showers, mainly before 2pm. High near 71. Breezy, with a north wind 18 to 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not expecting much in ne mass, tight gradient over ct. Sw ct jackpot , congrats LL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There are some recent trends here toward reducing the impact of this beast... I made the comparison in the other thread, but it's almost night to day, 00z vs 12z Euro for Worcester. 12z has like 6 periods of .05 -type output, and the 00z was around a quarter inch or more per those same times. It's strange because the Euro tends to be pretty stalwart and immovable when less than a 4 day lead, so it's got some wild continuity issues uncharacteristic with its long term performance. I am wondering if the Euro is not untouched by convective tainting. The GFS really unraveled the deep layer jet interactions ... showing less phasing and more interference schemes. That's causing the low to be weak, with weaker everything. The NAM also cut its QPF in half -- could be a sign of future modeled decline. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There is also more of a confluence zone over Maine that is helping to flatten heights out over New England vs 00z which did not have such a feature and heights bulged north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There is also more of a confluence zone over Maine that is helping to flatten heights out over New England vs 00z which did not have such a feature and heights bulged north.Supression depression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There is also more of a confluence zone over Maine that is helping to flatten heights out over New England vs 00z which did not have such a feature and heights bulged north. Convective feedback, sounds like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There are some recent trends here toward reducing the impact . U dont say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Euro ensembles are north of the OP and consequently more robust with QPF. Tonight's runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Euro ensembles are north of the OP and consequently more robust with QPF. Tonight's runs should be interesting. <ctblizz>and there ya have it...as we thought. that's all we need to know. stay the course.</ctblizz> <wx hype>we toss.<wx hype> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Euro ensembles are north of the OP and consequently more robust with QPF. Tonight's runs should be interesting.Are we in the bullseye down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Are we in the bullseye down here? A little north of it, but you get plenty. 1.5-2" That's th eensemble mean though so it won't pick out jackpot amounts that well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 <ctblizz>and there ya have it...as we thought. that's all we need to know. stay the course.</ctblizz> <wx hype>we toss.<wx hype> Thats why folks leave the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 15z srefs way south . Off Delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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