Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Canadian is real slow now...lol. Rain all day Friday. Model mayhem. yeah that's like the euro. pretty funny differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think this is all a function of models struggling with convection, latent heat release, and how convection augments advective processes. Even good model agreement for something like this should be a lower than usual confidence forecast. the funny thing is seeing the model agreement get worse at this point. i thought the GFS was on crack early in the week...just blowing up a spurious low because of all the convection it was moving through the ohio valley... and that this would end up as no big deal. but then everything came on board. now the wheels are falling off the bus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GEFS are south too, but looks like some members are north, some south. A mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 fwiw...wpc tossing 00z euro in favor of gfs/ukie combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think we're starting to see an undeniable trend here..Everything shifting south. Hopefully Euro follows suit, but until it does we can't be certain. Wouldn't that be funny if we escaped this with no rain and 70 degree wx with breezes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think we're starting to see an undeniable trend here..Everything shifting south. Hopefully Euro follows suit, but until it does we can't be certain. Wouldn't that be funny if we escaped this with no rain and 70 degree wx with breezes? ugh. no. lol. sucks if that's the case. bust-o-rama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 ugh. no. lol. sucks if that's the case. bust-o-rama. Well too early..Let's see what Euro does..but flood watches may need to be turned into sun watches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LOL look at the GFS MOS for BDL and BOS Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Feels like a winter thread in bizarro world with Kev pimping the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 If the GFS did not have that spurious s/w moving into Lake Erie it definitely would look more like the Euro. I'm not sold yet on the GFS op solution purely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What about Ginx rule in winter when you have strong NW winds and CAA day beforeit tends to lead to suppression? And he looks for a windex event...Applicable here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What about Ginx rule in winter when you have strong NW winds and CAA it tends to lead to suppression? Applicable here? No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the difference between the cmc and gfs for friday is about 20-25F. one of them is an LL stinger day...the other tippy drives his mom's cutlass supreme off the zakim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 No. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the difference between the cmc and gfs for friday is about 20-25F. one of them is an LL stinger day...the other tippy drives his mom's cutlass supreme off the zakim I wonder if we split the GFS and Euro solutions. IOW 12z GFS and 00z euro. We'll see what 12z does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Why? Well first off you can mix better in summer and therefore bring down stronger winds aloft easier. Secondly, we've had some good CAA days in the winter 36+hrs before any snowfall. These analogies just aren't good to use. Perhaps the moon is causing a south track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 there will probably be more changes tonight after the convection in the midwest actually materializes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 okx is balls out for their area. 4" of rain in the best location in the nation, fairfield ct http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 okx is balls out for their area. 4" of rain in the best location in the nation, fairfield ct http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the difference between the cmc and gfs for friday is about 20-25F. one of them is an LL stinger day...the other tippy drives his mom's cutlass supreme off the zakim okx is balls out for their area. 4" of rain in the best location in the nation, fairfield ct http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf you are on a roll today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 okx is balls out for their area. 4" of rain in the best location in the nation, fairfield ct http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf Bruce Edwards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 What about Ginx rule in winter when you have strong NW winds and CAA day beforeit tends to lead to suppression? And he looks for a windex event...Applicable here? Uh no, where the heck did you get that from? but today does have that windex appeal but suppression depression would imply strongly negative NAO and monster high pressing down or extreme blocking, none of that anywhere. Ride the Euro til you fall off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Bruce Edwards? of course. and he's still holding his cleveland indians mug. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well first off you can mix better in summer and therefore bring down stronger winds aloft easier. Secondly, we've had some good CAA days in the winter 36+hrs before any snowfall. These analogies just aren't good to use. Perhaps the moon is causing a south track? Hey wad he made that up, I never said that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 of course. and he's still holding his cleveland indians mug. And his anchorman mustache Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 FWIW SPC WRF looks nothing like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 okx is balls out for their area. 4" of rain in the best location in the nation, fairfield ct http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/FB_Briefings/WxBriefing_FB.pdf they went to that this morning-northern edges of their region have closer to 5! Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 of course. and he's still holding his cleveland indians mug.With Dave Schwartz muttering "uuummmpphh" after every few words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 With Dave Schwartz muttering "uuummmpphh" after every few wordsDave schwartz was the biggest pimp on twcWhats euro got, imo its def goin south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Euro went south, but not like the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.