N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 wonder what GEFS say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 look at the difference at 5h vs the 06z run. ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Waay south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 look at the difference at 5h vs the 06z run. ridiculous. I'm comparing now. Just weird and it starts early on...makes me think that the convection modeled perhaps is messing with things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 maybe the NAM was onto something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's not surprising models are having differing opinions..probably related to what was already discussed. We'll see what the euro has...but I do think the risk is south...if there is a risk at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What are the pros of a sink south besides less rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What are the pros of a sink south besides less rain?One pro would be a smaller area at risk for severe weather damage, which >95% of the public does not want to see at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What are the pros of a sink south besides less rain? something like the GFS salvages a big chunk of friday - especially over the interior. it's a totally different world. euro is horiztonal rain and sheet drizzle and probably stuck in the 50s...gfs ends up clear and 70F. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HalloweenGale Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I had a dream last night that this moved off of Novi and acquired subtropical characteristics and became BARRY. This board would probably be on overload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 something like the GFS salvages a big chunk of friday - especially over the interior. it's a totally different world. euro is horiztonal rain and sheet drizzle and probably stuck in the 50s...gfs ends up clear and 70F. lol. Lol GFS please. Pretty please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I had a dream last night that this moved off of Novi and acquired subtropical characteristics and became BARRY. This board would probably be on overload. only if it was to move SW from Novi otherwise NBD imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 i hope the GFS is wrong. i liked the idea of a good storm. it's so much different than its last several runs. a lot weaker and faster aloft. doesn't phase in the additional energy until it's too late. ends up very meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That complex on the HRRR tonight heading to DC...wonder if that pushes a boundary south. Just talking out loud here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That complex on the HRRR tonight heading to DC...wonder if that pushes a boundary south. Just talking out loud here. seems like you were hinting at a move south, but forky talk'd u out of it. go with your gut SCF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 seems like you were hinting at a move south, but forky talk'd u out of it. go with your gut SCF He didn't talk me out of anything..it wasn't like that. I'm just talking to throw stuff out there because I'm trying to think of various reasons why models are showing their respective solutions. Inside I think IF there were to be a shift, it would be south..although I did not expect the 12z GFS op...I think that is too aggressive. Part of me also says to side with the Euro which I am to some respect because it is consistent. The ensembles were a bit faster and less phased, but still decent amount of rain with the heaviest over the SNE south coast. If the euro shifted south a tad or stayed on course, I would not be shocked either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I will take the 12z GFS but it will be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 You can see by 06z tonight, the GFS has a s/w born from convection moving into Lake Erie which then helps initiate heavy rain over PA and points east across the srn tier of NY. That s/w then gets crushed and the parent one rotates in across the MA which redevelops the low further south. Maybe it's real...but that sure is suspicious looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Convection always has a way of either helping or hurting the eventual track of the low, We saw it a few times this winter and it was a bust for many on a couple of these systems Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Convection always has a way of either helping or hurting the eventual track of the low, We saw it a few times this winter and it was a bust for many on a couple of these systemswhy even bother with anything except the Euro, nobody has learned winter lessons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 why even bother with anything except the Euro, nobody has learned winter lessons Save a horse, 0z Euro does bring min precip this far north, But we are fringed, 12z GFS says what precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 ukie is really rather flat and south too. 997 south of cape may and then just goes seaward. has a massive amount of rain in w PA and not a whole lot in SNE at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That complex on the HRRR tonight heading to DC...wonder if that pushes a boundary south. Just talking out loud here. Hope so!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Hmmm.. Yes please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wagons south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wonder if the suppression rule works in the summer like it does in winter with 50/50 low and - Nao? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Are gefs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Canadian is real slow now...lol. Rain all day Friday. Model mayhem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wonder if the suppression rule works in the summer like it does in winter with 50/50 low and - Nao? I think this is all a function of models struggling with convection, latent heat release, and how convection augments advective processes. Even good model agreement for something like this should be a lower than usual confidence forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think this is all a function of models struggling with convection, latent heat release, and how convection augments advective processes. Even good model agreement for something like this should be a lower than usual confidence forecast. Yep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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