Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 really interesting storm. impact may very well be worse than most POS "named" systems that come through here. goes to show how information is lost in translation with the weather. if this were a TS there'd be statements up/down the coast for mariners etc etc. instead there's nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 really interesting storm. impact may very well be worse than most POS "named" systems that come through here. goes to show how information is lost in translation with the weather. if this were a TS there'd be statements up/down the coast for mariners etc etc. instead there's nothing. A very valid point. How many times do we see TS warnings for a recurving storm that brings us nothing more than a shower and a wind gust to 25mph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 really interesting storm. impact may very well be worse than most POS "named" systems that come through here. goes to show how information is lost in translation with the weather. if this were a TS there'd be statements up/down the coast for mariners etc etc. instead there's nothing. From the NWS to the media it's the same, unfortunately. The whole weather enterprise goes to DEFCON1 the moments something gets a name regardless of expected impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is going to drop some insane rainfall totals...that much lift being modeled coupled with dewpoints increasing into the 50's and PWATS shy of 2'' spells major trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 really interesting storm. impact may very well be worse than most POS "named" systems that come through here. goes to show how information is lost in translation with the weather. if this were a TS there'd be statements up/down the coast for mariners etc etc. instead there's nothing. This. I feel storms like this and many nor'easters pose a much greater impact and threat and are underrated than if a TS were to come this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 From the NWS to the media it's the same, unfortunately. The whole weather enterprise goes to DEFCON1 the moments something gets a name regardless of expected impact. yeah. it's too bad really. things that need to be talked up, aren't...and things that don't need to be, are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This. I feel storms like this and many nor'easters pose a much greater impact and threat and are underrated than if a TS were to come this way. A lot of the worst storms for coastal flooding in SE New England have been unnamed....Dec 1992, Halloween 1991, Feb 1978, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah. it's too bad really. things that need to be talked up, aren't...and things that don't need to be, are. If you go on BOX's home page there's nothing about the storm and/or flood threat. Even my point n click doesn't have any statements/information about impacts from expected rain and wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Also as we mentioned yesterday..this is in quicker and out quicker..so the sun is out Friday afternoon and we warm to near 70 ..In Ct and Western mass anyway. better hope the euro is on crack then. i could see friday hovering around 52 or 53F by you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 One of the impressive features of this pattern is almost a 50/50 type blocking low up in Nova Scotia...something we don't normally see in summer with a shortwave digging in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 One of the impressive features of this pattern is almost a 50/50 type blocking low up in Nova Scotia...something we don't normally see in summer with a shortwave digging in from the west. What a wild looking storm for the time of year. I haven't been paying much attention to SNE wx until this morning when I started looking at the latest models. The rain could really be ugly on the NW side of this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Pretty strong TROWAL signal on here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the nam is still much faster than the euro and has a weird look to the precip shield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Pretty strong TROWAL signal on here too. The one thing I'm not sure about is how the convection that fires over the Mid Atlantic will influence this whole thing. Powerful convection may screw up some of the conveyorbelt processes and moisture transport into the storm for a period of time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well we are doing our best to spread the word to mariners and river folks. Could be a big flood issue more so than the silly Derecho talk, also the boaters should be worried especially those in places like the lower CT river where the combo of fresh water flooding and winds will strain the lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the nam is still much faster than the euro and has a weird look to the precip shield NAM and Canadian have been the camp that doesn't really phase all the energy together and keep the storm moving along quickly...Canadian more extreme on that end than the NAM while the GFS/Euro/Ukie are slower...Euro being the slowest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The one thing I'm not sure about is how the convection that fires over the Mid Atlantic will influence this whole thing. Powerful convection may screw up some of the conveyorbelt processes and moisture transport into the storm for a period of time?that's the reason why i'm wondering about the nam's precip max near albany while the low is over delaware Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The one thing I'm not sure about is how the convection that fires over the Mid Atlantic will influence this whole thing. Powerful convection may screw up some of the conveyorbelt processes and moisture transport into the storm for a period of time? I mentioned that this morning. Part of the answer to this storm is what happens with the convection tonight I think. I'd still like to give it another run or so before I pull out all the stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On the other hand, it's a formidable s/w modeled that helps kick off the devlopment of this low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think the risk is more of a south track than north. IOW a track near or south of 40N instead of over MVY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the euro has shown the same low track/timing for two days so why go against it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 I mentioned that this morning. Part of the answer to this storm is what happens with the convection tonight I think. I'd still like to give it another run or so before I pull out all the stops. Seems to me the convection is being overplayed and this pans out like our normal strong clipper that redevelops off the Delmarva, as the 12Z Hi res shows most of the precip is north of the cyclogenesis. Flooding and wind in the NE seems to be the issue with of course some strong cells in the warm sector triggering spin ups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I mentioned that this morning. Part of the answer to this storm is what happens with the convection tonight I think. I'd still like to give it another run or so before I pull out all the stops. If you do get a monster MCS from S NJ to SE VA... I wonder if you're really going to be able to throw loads of moisture off the Atlantic into SNE on the warm conveyorbelt. It may be a sloppy looking system initially before the convection weakens and you get some solid deformation rains on the north and west flank. That would keep totals down I think but it's uncertain. The worst case scenario for rain and flooding is being able to fire convection into the south coast tomorrow (there is some elevated instability) and put down a lot of rain near and north of the warm front before going to a full on coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 the euro has shown the same low track/timing for two days so why go against it Save a horse ride the Euro, concur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 the euro has shown the same low track/timing for two days so why go against it I don't think the track looks bad... I was just wondering about whether some of the really excessive rainfall amounts (4"+) are able to make it north of NYC. Certainly possible, don't get me wrong, but big convection down south could do funky things to final QPF numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I don't think the track looks bad... I was just wondering about whether some of the really excessive rainfall amounts (4"+) are able to make it north of NYC. Certainly possible, don't get me wrong, but big convection down south could do funky things to final QPF numbers. Yeah that's the biggiest question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I land at BDL tomorrow at 11 p.m.... should be like an amusement park ride. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I land at BDL tomorrow at 11 p.m.... should be like an amusement park ride. It will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I land at BDL tomorrow at 11 p.m.... should be like an amusement park ride. Hey how was last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Flood Watches up already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.