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Noreaster


Ginx snewx

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Scooter, what are your thoughts for the rest of tonight?

 

Moderate rain for you developing in the next hour or so and continuing until the wee hours before tapering off. Maybe a heavier burst now and then. I don't think this will be anything close to prolific, but it's going to add up from now until 2-3am or so for your area.

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It's been weak sauce though...only 0.18" so far and we haven't even hit moderate intensity yet.

 

Interesting... its amazing how on a radar depiction that you and Gene were under 30dbz+ moderate returns on the composite and yet not have much happening, while further south in CT/NY those same echos produce 0.25"/hr.

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I'll admit this looks a lot more robust for southern, SNE than I thought it would earlier today.

Props to ORH and Coastalwx for staying true to the redevelopment with the mid level features.

 

 

In the summer its a bit different than winter...the MCS clearly screwed with the ML processes earlier, but once it raced eastward, we still had the mid-level center well west of us and progged to track SE to a position near or just south of LI...its very difficult for us to avoid getting some sort of steady synoptic precip on that type of track.

 

The earlier interference of the MCS (which probably also pumped up heights a tad to cause the northward surge overnight/early this morning in that initial band) made it look a lot "worse" than it really was in terms of a dryslot. It was really a temporary lull.

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In the summer its a bit different than winter...the MCS clearly screwed with the ML processes earlier, but once it raced eastward, we still had the mid-level center well west of us and progged to track SE to a position near or just south of LI...its very difficult for us to avoid getting some sort of steady synoptic precip on that type of track.

 

The earlier interference of the MCS (which probably also pumped up heights a tad to cause the northward surge overnight/early this morning in that initial band) made it look a lot "worse" than it really was in terms of a dryslot. It was really a temporary lull.

 

Yeah I just really hesitant to think it would really come together again like it has this evening.  I figured it would precipitate again this evening, but thought it would look more showery than it does right now.  Lull is definitely a much better word than dryslot...it just had that look of like a SWFE in the winter where the dryslot blasts through and its over, while further north gets the comma head.  But that trajectory is usually on, well SW to NE movement of mid level lows...not the other way around moving ESE. 

 

That stuff in CT isn't moving all that quickly and appears to be some decent 0.1-0.25"/hr rains.  Could bring some decent totals by 3am.

 

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