Noreaster

[Ginx snewx]

I would love this in winter---the modeled qpf making a beeline to GC just in time for the start.

I admit I did laugh at your QPF stuff yesterday, the calls for suppression depression after the 12Z runs were classic pre storm winter stuff, clipper climo is always north.

[Damage In Tolland]

That convection has just f'd this whole thing up in a good way for us.

[ORH_wxman]

I think that huge blob of convection SE of LI has definitely helped rob some of the moisutre transport in the mid-levels making the rainfall not as heavy even inside the band over SNE...that is the trouble in summertime coastals is that convection is much more likely to interfere with mid-level processes than in winter.

 

On the flip side, its possible that when the ML low approaches from the west, that we'll see convective elements running into the sfc boundary...so perhaps some areas could still get locally heavy rainfall from that.

[powderfreak]

In winter this is one of those deals where forecasts would have1-2 feet, I'd be calling for 30 inches and that ugly dry slot would appear unmodeled just like this one and we'd see totals halved and then 5-10 when all said and done. Yet somehow ORH would still end up with 16

 

Spot on, lol.

 

I was thinking that... it seems like a storm where folks south would be expecting like 12-18" while north of the Pike is only supposed to get like 6-12 or 4-8"... then the southern areas pick up a quick like 4-6" then dryslot, only to see like 2-3 more inches when the mid-level centers roll through later in the day.  Meanwhile north of the Pike and RT 2 area into S.VT/S.NH end up getting the 12-18" in some east-west fronto band.

 

We see that northern jackpot every so often in these storms... we always talk about that potential in the winter.  That band that sets up on the northern modeled QPF gradient.  Its always a battle between worrying about a northern band jackpot, or confluence that crushes everything further south than expected.

[Damage In Tolland]

Spot on, lol.

I was thinking that... it seems like a storm where folks south would be expecting like 12-18" while north of the Pike is only supposed to get like 6-12 or 4-8"... then the southern areas pick up a quick like 4-6" then dryslot, only to see like 2-3 more inches when the mid-level centers roll through later in the day. Meanwhile north of the Pike and RT 2 area into S.VT/S.NH end up getting the 12-18" in some east-west fronto band.

We see that northern jackpot every so often in these storms... we always talk about that potential in the winter. That band that sets up on the northern modeled QPF gradient.

Ding ding ding. The only difference is I'd still be defiant that we were gonna crushed in the winter. But now I'm the first one on board the bust train . I'm the Engineer today. Dina won't you blow your horn. Toot toot

[moneypitmike]

.32"/hr here

 

For the month, we're at 5.12"

 

For today, .47" thus far.

 

A lovely 53.1/52 out there.

 

In the 12 minutes since the post above, I'm now up to .54".  Really coming down hard.

[ORH_wxman]

Ding ding ding. The only difference is I'd still be defiant that we were gonna crushed in the winter. But now I'm the first one on board the bust train . I'm the Engineer today. Dina won't you blow your horn. Toot toot

 

 

You ditched the south trend idea you were steadfast on yesterday afternoon?

[Ginx snewx]

I think that huge blob of convection SE of LI has definitely helped rob some of the moisutre transport in the mid-levels making the rainfall not as heavy even inside the band over SNE...that is the trouble in summertime coastals is that convection is much more likely to interfere with mid-level processes than in winter.

 

On the flip side, its possible that when the ML low approaches from the west, that we'll see convective elements running into the sfc boundary...so perhaps some areas could still get locally heavy rainfall from that.

It will be interesting as the MLs approach the coast, inflow increases and a comma head forms, 

[Damage In Tolland]

You ditched the south trend idea you were steadfast on yesterday afternoon?

Right for the wrong reason lol

[moneypitmike]

Boy--the southern end of the precip shield is moving north quickly, already midway through Hampshire County.  I guess I won't hold onto the rain like I had thought.  Oh, well.  Maybe the 'fill-in' will happen more quickly up this way.

[Damage In Tolland]

It will be interesting as the MLs approach the coast, inflow increases and a comma head forms,

Now I see what I sound like in winter. Point taken

[Ginx snewx]

You ditched the south trend idea you were steadfast on yesterday afternoon?

He reengineered, insert Kevin

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ExSlyoVTX3I

[powderfreak]

Now I see what I sound like in winter. Point taken

 

you guys are killin' me with this role reversal stuff.

[CoastalWx]

The dryslot was actually modeled even as of this morning. The problem was that models were so all over the place..nobody really knew what to expect.  I think we'll see some precip fill in later this aftn and just an ugly ugly night tonight.

[CoastalWx]

Regardless, awesome weekend coming for all.

[Damage In Tolland]

@capecodweather: Batch to the north, batch of heavy rain to the south...we're in-between and end up dry through the rest of the day: http://t.co/4jbpql1I5W

[Typhoon Tip]

The pivot point is currently close to ALB.  In fact, ...WSW of there you can see some filling in taking place, while to the S of ALB, the N push does not exit, while ESE of ALB there is clearly still a NE punch going on.   

 

The dry slot does not have to stop punch N/NE for a time, perhaps overshooting the latitude of the mid level center by some, but until the mid level center fills and/or moves past, there still going to be a rain ball associated with it and that will likely re-wet places that slot. 

[Tropopause_Fold]

I think that huge blob of convection SE of LI has definitely helped rob some of the moisutre transport in the mid-levels making the rainfall not as heavy even inside the band over SNE...that is the trouble in summertime coastals is that convection is much more likely to interfere with mid-level processes than in winter.

 

On the flip side, its possible that when the ML low approaches from the west, that we'll see convective elements running into the sfc boundary...so perhaps some areas could still get locally heavy rainfall from that.

yeah i'm beginning to wonder if we see a new batch of heavy rain develop over CT later this afternoon. the MCS is racing away so the mid-level center may be able take over here shortly. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Re the convective robbing ...  Ryan and I spoke about this possibility yesterday, in that if an MCS were to dive to the MA that could take place. 

[moneypitmike]

The dryslot was actually modeled even as of this morning. The problem was that models were so all over the place..nobody really knew what to expect.  I think we'll see some precip fill in later this aftn and just an ugly ugly night tonight.

 

Really?  You see that much impact once/if things fill in?

[powderfreak]

ALB with 0.76" last 6 hours... RME (Utica-Rome) with 1.06" in the last 6 hours.  North Adams in the Berks is near a half inch in the last 4 hours. 

 

Pretty good burst of synoptic precipitation in the I-90 corridor.

 

Meanwhile, further south at POU in the Hudson Valley only had 0.39" in the last 6 hours.  I would've thought those amounts would be reversed given the model trends yesterday.

[Tropopause_Fold]

Re the convective robbing ...  Ryan and I spoke about this possibility yesterday, in that if an MCS were to dive to the MA that could take place. 

 

[moneypitmike]

ALB with 0.76" last 6 hours... RME (Utica-Rome) with 1.06" in the last 6 hours.  North Adams in the Berks is near a half inch in the last 4 hours. 

 

Pretty good burst of synoptic precipitation in the I-90 corridor.

 

Meanwhile, further south at POU in the Hudson Valley only had 0.39" in the last 6 hours.  I would've thought those amounts would be reversed given the model trends yesterday.

 

Just hit .60 here.

[Damage In Tolland]

It's over here for now. Drizzly

[ORH_wxman]

Really?  You see that much impact once/if things fill in?

 

 

I think he means sensible wx wise....regardless of weather its a downpour ot light drizzle...temps in the lower 50s tonight is puke-worthy with the dank conditions.

[moneypitmike]

I think he means sensible wx wise....regardless of weather its a downpour ot light drizzle...temps in the lower 50s tonight is puke-worthy with the dank conditions.

 

Meh--everyone's asleep.  No biggie.

[Typhoon Tip]

 

 

Point being ... no one should be surprised if that's verified.    

[Tropopause_Fold]

Point being ... no one should be surprised if that's verified.    

i know. 

[powderfreak]

I think he means sensible wx wise....regardless of weather its a downpour ot light drizzle...temps in the lower 50s tonight is puke-worthy with the dank conditions.

 

I just noticed BOX's current forecast has 80% categorical POPS for rain through 2pm tomorrow for a good chunk of the area...

 

This is the ORH forecast... I don't know how steady rain lingers that long tomorrow.  And another 1-2" tonight after today's half inch, with up to another 1/4" tomorrow, so plenty more rain coming it would seem.

 

 

This Afternoon Rain. High near 63. Southeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

 

Tonight Rain. Patchy fog. Low around 50. Northeast wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

 

Friday Rain before 2pm, then showers likely, mainly after 4pm. High near 65. North wind 8 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

[N. OF PIKE]

Well if the mid level processes go to crap, then we can say .4 to .80 for most, unless of course the moon is on our side, is it clipper climo to cut precip totals by 60%