N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Lol wheres mr torchey 61 f at bdr. Little below Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Kudos to the models showing that sharp northern edge. Its just going to get stuck through Central NH. 25 miles is going to be the difference between next to nothing and many hours of rain. I think I will just be left out by a few miles. Sun showing dimly through the higher overcast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I have almost 7" already this month though. All set. Pretty cool how you can see the convection developing down south of NYC/LI area...and then the heavy stuff to the north near ALB-UCA-SYR and into western New England sort of loses some of its muster. Wonder if its starting to cut off moisture flow to the NW band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Just my opinion, does this look like a a Pike/Rt2/SW NH jack pot via radar trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Kinda looks like boston should get git hard. Prolly 128 down thru EWB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Sure looks like it might be done....maybe some light showers later with that stuff in North Central PA? Damage is done, everything wet again but we have dodged a serious bullet....2 inches of rain would have been a problem let alone 3 or 4. May not be quite over yet... though a lull is clearly imminent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Just about over here. Man did we dodge a bullet. Convection helped really tear this thing up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Just about over here. Man did we dodge a bullet. Convection helped really tear this thing up http://ready.arl.noaa.gov/ready2-bin/animation.pl?id=RAP&mdl=grads/rap/panel2&file=anim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The current areas being dryslotted will fill back in, but we'll likely have to wait for the mid-level center to come closer which is currently over NY State. It will dive SE over the next 6 hours and redevelop precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Pretty cool how you can see the convection developing down south of NYC/LI area...and then the heavy stuff to the north near ALB-UCA-SYR and into western New England sort of loses some of its muster. Wonder if its starting to cut off moisture flow to the NW band. You know ... watching this product loop, and others, and the satellite for that matter... it is possible that "curl" up on NY stays on a more west-east motion. If so, the rains for CT/RI end up way over-cooked in this deal. And it may actually be so for much of Massachusetts. Clearly by NWS rad trends you can see and abrupt lull punching through CT. Earlier in discussion with Scott we thought that the southern edge of that would stall, putting much of the area in a persistent wall of rain that would persist until that rotation passed through... but, best laid plans. I don't currently see much deceleration trend there. If it keeps up, in another hour it will have ended in Worcester and about to end farther east. Not sure about Rt 2 though... The low is still modeled to dig S, though we don't see a lot of evidence at the moment for that actually happening. On the flip side, and I don't know how accurate the product is ... Unisys' 3-hourly pressure change product as -7.5 centered on the MA. That's impressive fall there. And that doesn't even make sense to me because the MCS has moved off and usually you get a positive pressure response due to outlfow. So there's some bizarro aspects to this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The current areas being dryslotted will fill back in, but we'll likely have to wait for the mid-level center to come closer which is currently over NY State. It will dive SE over the next 6 hours and redevelop precip. I don't think we will be done by any means, but do you still see 2-3 inches south of the pike? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Whether it fills back in with lighter rains or not. We dodged a bullet. We all know when the dry slot reaches you , you take totals way down from what was forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Just about over here. Man did we dodge a bullet. Convection helped really tear this thing up Don't count your chickens before they hatch...the back edge might stall as the low slips south of us and keep under the precip shield before all those echoes in NYS comes through. Then again, maybe not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 The current areas being dryslotted will fill back in, but we'll likely have to wait for the mid-level center to come closer which is currently over NY State. It will dive SE over the next 6 hours and redevelop precip. spiked so hard it bounced into the upper deck but the Ref comes in with the flag and says rut roh you spiked befor the goal line, turnover, Mets ball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 winds turning into the East as we post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I know BOX has heaviest in CT/RI/SE MA... but is it me or does it look like this stuff sort of pivots along the RT 2 corridor in northern MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 spiked so hard it bounced into the upper deck but the Ref comes in with the flag and says rut roh you spiked befor the goal line, turnover, Mets ballDude if this was winter you and me would be fooked. Give it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The current areas being dryslotted will fill back in, but we'll likely have to wait for the mid-level center to come closer which is currently over NY State. It will dive SE over the next 6 hours and redevelop precip. Exactly. You can actually see that pretty well on the SPC Mesoscale Analysis: http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/archiveviewer.php?sector=16&parm=pmsl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The current areas being dryslotted will fill back in, but we'll likely have to wait for the mid-level center to come closer which is currently over NY State. It will dive SE over the next 6 hours and redevelop precip. Yeah it depends on what the mid level center does here... There's some confusing data on the table. In one respect, the sat/rad trends argue for more eastward motion to that gyre. That would effectively cut this event short for CT RI and possibly much of Mass if that were to persist. Yet the modeling still wants to dig it S by a bit. Also, as I was just telling Powder', there are 3-hour P change products out there showing robust deepening on the MA -- though I am unsure how accurate that really is. Either way, a lull is imminent for CT and RI and I am not sure that was very well modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Dude if this was winter you and me would be fooked. Give it up if this was winter you would be pimping the HRRR and Rap, Will is right, this is not over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I don't think we will be done by any means, but do you still see 2-3 inches south of the pike? It will definitely make the higher end totals tough to reach. But it could be like a steady light/moderate rain this evening...we'll just have to wait and see how steady or heavy it is, but it won't stay precip-free as the ML center approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 if this was winter you would be pimping the HRRR and Rap, Will is right, this is not over.Youre not getting your 2-3 inches plus of rain man. Time to give that idea up and put the models away for a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 In winter this is one of those deals where forecasts would have1-2 feet, I'd be calling for 30 inches and that ugly dry slot would appear unmodeled just like this one and we'd see totals halved and then 5-10 when all said and done. Yet somehow ORH would still end up with 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Youre not getting your 2-3 inches plus of rain man. Time to give that idea up and put the models away for a bit 1-3 is what I said, we will count the chickens tomorrow, same bat time, same bat channel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Another thing I noticed... the band is actually shrinking and weakening. This is better noticed by looping ALB's base refl. Shows that the N edge is stationary, while the southern edge moves N, causing a net shrink in the width. There is a bit over confluence of southern Ontario/N New England that is being stubborn, mean while dry slotting encroaches up underneath. interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It is pouring though in that fronto area along I-90 in NY state...they are putting up 0.2-0.5" per hour in that stuff and not moving very quickly. .32"/hr here I have almost 7" already this month though. All set. For the month, we're at 5.12" For today, .47" thus far. A lovely 53.1/52 out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 What u got so far rev? Yes pfreak heaviest axis looks like rte2 pivot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 What u got so far rev? Yes pfreak heaviest axis looks like rte2 pivot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 In winter this is one of those deals where forecasts would have1-2 feet, I'd be calling for 30 inches and that ugly dry slot would appear unmodeled just like this one and we'd see totals halved and then 5-10 when all said and done. Yet somehow ORH would still end up with 16 I would love this in winter---the modeled qpf making a beeline to GC just in time for the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 What u got so far rev? Yes pfreak heaviest axis looks like rte2 pivot .32.backedge close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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