moneypitmike Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Does CT dryslot after this first band? Sure looks that way. 53.3/52 .24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 58/57, rain shutting off for the time being... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This sort of has the look of a storm that in the wintertime would have CT folks worried as that dry slot is racing east...while mid level deformation occurs from central NY (already at almost 1" of rain in the past 6 hours) through the Berks/SVT/SNH. Some of those north GFS runs don't look that bad given where the current precip shields are setting up and the track of the dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 GFS sucks again for next week. Can't catch a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This sort of has the look of a storm that in the wintertime would have CT folks worried as that dry slot is racing east...while mid level deformation occurs from central NY (already at almost 1" of rain in the past 6 hours) through the Berks/SVT/SNH. Some of those north GFS runs don't look that bad given where the current precip shields are setting up and the track of the dry slot. agree...we could done with the worst of it here...looks pretty dry for now to the west. Would be funny if we ended up with .50 after the models showing anywhere from 2-5 inches for the past few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This is that big droplet rain. The kind that looks worse on radar than ground truth. .16 so far It is pouring though in that fronto area along I-90 in NY state...they are putting up 0.2-0.5" per hour in that stuff and not moving very quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 agree...we could done with the worst of it here...looks pretty dry for now to the west. Would be funny if we ended up with .50 after the models showing anywhere from 2-5 inches for the past few daysRadar really looks like the heaviest will be from I-90 and north due to the west-east banding....which some of those south model runs of the NAM won't even be close to correct.Radar is doing a SWFE type deal in CT...burst then dry slot. It's actually a good thing as the heaviest rains with this will be further north than the heaviest 3-5" amounts the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It is pouring though in that fronto area along I-90 in NY state...they are putting up 0.2-0.5" per hour in that stuff and not moving very quickly.Hope it stays there and we're largely done by this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Hope it stays there and we're largely done by this afternoon Yeah you should be ok by mid-afternoon it looks...good fail in the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I have almost 7" already this month though. All set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 8 of the 14 June's I've measured have been 6.33" or higher! June is a wet month I was noticing that. There's normal months but a lot of 5-7" months in the record as well. I have only one really dry one. How much you at MTD? I'm up over 7.50 now 6.52" here. I think you had some thunderstorms that I didn't have. Either way it's been a wet month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I have been watching the radar returns from ALB and it is fascinating to watch the northern edge of the shield of rain utterly halted for any addition NE displacement. Just stuck there. Meanwhile, NYC may actually clear this afternoon, when looping hi res imagery. Water vapor imagery nicely shows the v-max in central NY state, slowly trundling eastward. I think that the band of rain will sort of stall west to east very near where it is now, while the bottom edge near NYC rockets east during the afternoon. This is just going by now-cast obs. Thoughts? I dunno, but it doesn't seem any model really aligns very well with current sat/rad trends, but I may be missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Awesome day PC and 68F up here, Confluence working its magic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Radar really looks like the heaviest will be from I-90 and north due to the west-east banding....which some of those south model runs of the NAM won't even be close to correct. Radar is doing a SWFE type deal in CT...burst then dry slot. It's actually a good thing as the heaviest rains with this will be further north than the heaviest 3-5" amounts the other day. ugly bust by most models which all went south yesterday.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I have been watching the radar returns from ALB and it is fascinating to watch the northern edge of the shield of rain utterly halted for any addition NE displacement. Just stuck there. Meanwhile, NYC may actually clear this afternoon, when looping hi res imagery. Water vapor imagery nicely shows the v-max in central NY state, slowly trundling eastward. I think that the band of rain will sort of stall west to east very near where it is now, while the bottom edge near NYC rockets east during the afternoon. This is just going by now-cast obs. Thoughts? I dunno, but it doesn't seem any model really aligns very well with current sat/rad trends, but I may be missing something. Yeah I think that band will sort of stall where it is too as the low moves se and south of NYC. That will help establish additional isentropic lift an sort of redevelop rains in the Dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 ugly bust by most models which all went south yesterday.... Except SPC WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Rain shield seems to be hitting a brick wall up here in Central NH. After the models went back and forth putting us in and out of the rain (latest run we get into it) I wonder if that will happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Yeah I think that band will sort of stall where it is too as the low moves se and south of NYC. That will help establish additional isentropic lift an sort of redevelop rains in the Dryslot what time do you see that happening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 this is the worst possible outcome... too far south for heavy rain and too far north for storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 this is the worst possible outcome... too far south for heavy rain and too far north for storms it's early, but there's no storms anywhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 &&.NEAR TERM /UNTIL NOON TODAY/...10 AM UPDATE...00Z ECMWF APPEARS TO BE VERIFYING BEST WHEN COMPARED TO RECENTOBSERVATIONS/RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS. THUS NOT MUCH CHANGE TOPREVIOUS FORECAST. MCS MOVING ACROSS PA AND NJ WILL TRANSITIONINTO A BAROCLINIC WAVE/CYCLOGENESIS SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND THISAFTERNOON. ALREADY SEEING MODEST PRES FALLS OFF THE NJ COAST.ASSOCIATED RAIN SHIELD MOVING RAPIDLY ACROSS THE REGION FROM WESTTO EAST. DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS ARE NOT VERY LARGE SO NOT EXPECTINGRAIN TO EVAPORATE. INSTEAD RAIN SHOULD MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARDACROSS THE AREA. HEAVIEST RAIN STILL EXPECTED AFTER 4/5PM AS LOWLEVEL JET SETS UP JUST OFF THE SOUTH COAST WITH BEST MOISTUREADVECTION AND CONVERGENCE ACROSS EASTERN CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.AS A RESULT HEAVIEST LATER TODAY SHOULD BE FOCUSED FROM WESTERN MAINTO CT/RI AND SOUTHEAST MA.AS THIS LOW LEVEL JET SETS UP EXPECT EAST WINDS TO INCREASE LATETODAY ACROSS RI AND SOUTHEAST MA...YIELDING A WIND DRIVEN RAIN.LATE DAY COMMUTE WILL BE SLOWED DOWN BY THIS ACROSS THIS REGION.CHANCE OF ELEVATED CONVECTION AFTER 21Z/5PM ACROSS CT/RI ANDSOUTHEAST MA AS NOSE OF DRY SLOT APPROACHES THIS REGION...WITHTHETA-E DECREASING WITH HEIGHT. THIS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OFENHANCING THE RAINFALL OVER THIS AREA.WILD CARD TO THIS FORECAST WILL BE NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD EXTENT OFHEAVY RAINFALL. SHORT WAVELENGTH PATTERN IN PLACE WITH SLOWDEPARTING MID LEVEL LOW OVER ATLANTIC CANADA PROVIDING CONFLUENTMID LEVEL FLOW/SUBSIDENCE OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILLYIELD A SHARP QPF GRADIENT. THUS HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR HEAVYRAINFALL IS ACROSS WESTERN MA-CT-RI AND SOUTHEAST MA. LOWESTCONFIDENCE IS ACROSS NORTHEAST MA INTO SOUTHERN NH WHERE MUCH LESSRAINFALL IS POSSIBLE.AS PREVIOUS SHIFT MENTIONED ONCE RAIN BEGINS TEMPS WILL FALL INTOTHE 50S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 this is the worst possible outcome... too far south for heavy rain and too far north for storms maybe some of the precip redeveloping in PA will get you. is that you with your sister eating chinese food? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Nice day here, temp topped out at 63.1, now 62.9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 maybe some of the precip redeveloping in PA will get you. is that you with your sister eating chinese food? those light showers could have been a complex of storms if that MCS this morning hadn't crapped up the airmass over PA those are my children Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Lots of scud here just north of Darien Ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 LP is down to 996 over C PA. bit lower than most guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 You wonder if the dry slot ever fills back in. You could envision it not and just left with drizzle/ light showers of misery Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 those light showers could have been a complex of storms if that MCS this morning hadn't crapped up the airmass over PA those are my children did you get anything from the first round? beautiful kids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 did you get anything from the first round? beautiful kids. i haven't checked the rain gauge but probably a bit over a half inch thanks. it's pizza night! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 You wonder if the dry slot ever fills back in. You could envision it not and just left with drizzle/ light showers of misery Sure looks like it might be done....maybe some light showers later with that stuff in North Central PA? Damage is done, everything wet again but we have dodged a serious bullet....2 inches of rain would have been a problem let alone 3 or 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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