Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Wow-quite the gradient on the NAM--CT/RI/SE MA special with close to 4 inches of QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 what about the RPM? has anyone checked the RPM? navgem? korean? jma? c'mon people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Ryan's boss going whole unit ballz and all to wall @BradNBCCT: Waterlogged CT preparing for another soaking! From mid-morning tomorrow through mid-morning Fri. heavy rain is likely http://t.co/9VnnxABWLx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 8:41 PM, Tropopause_Fold said: what about the RPM? has anyone checked the RPM? navgem? korean? jma? c'mon people. In the NYC forums, someone actually posted the NAVGEM. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 8:22 PM, Wx Hype said: Way underonce again I will take the over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 8:53 PM, Ginxy said: once again I will take the over Good choice again, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Man models are everywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 7:14 PM, CoastalWx said: There is also more of a confluence zone over Maine that is helping to flatten heights out over New England vs 00z which did not have such a feature and heights bulged north. The only time of year i don't mind one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 9:01 PM, dryslot said: The only time of year i don't mind one Yeah I'm ok with CT getting the jackpot in this rain event. Hopefully Friday ends up decent in the afternoon, but I'm skeptical. NAM slowed down a lot and it had been one of the faster models previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 8:40 PM, CT Rain said: NAM would be bad. We don't need that much rain. Nope, we sure don't. But I think a lot of how this plays out will depend upon how convection physics intertwines with that gyre trundling E to ESE through southern MN. I mean, for one thing, if severe explosion associated with the PDS erupts and then goes as planned, transforming into a Mid Atlantic destined MCS, won't that effectively "rob" something from the low passing to the N? It's usually the case... not sure how to work that one out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 9:02 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'm ok with CT getting the jackpot in this rain event. Hopefully Friday ends up decent in the afternoon, but I'm skeptical. NAM slowed down a lot and it had been one of the faster models previously. Yeah, The low gets squashed out south of here, Which i am fine with that to, My yard is a pond right now, Already making preparations for tonight's game......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I can't imagine how this area's going to deal with another 2-5 inches of rain...everything's waterlogged. At least the June sun put a dent in things the past 2 days... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 9:06 PM, dryslot said: Yeah, The low gets squashed out south of here, Which i am fine with that to, My yard is a pond right now, Already making preparations for tonight's game......... no games for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 gfs cant make up its mind further north and stronger again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This storm is a major modeling headache. 18z GFS is NW and brings the heaviest precip into the Albany area and S VT now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LOL at 18z GFS. Just a wee bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LOL, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 we are going to get slammed, remember your winter rules Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 9:40 PM, Ginxy said: we are going to get slammed, remember your winter rules I know it's the wrong forum, but this all has major implications on the severe weather and tornado threat in the mid-Atlantic. I have to give SPC credit for not flip flopping with the 1730z update. Will have to see what 00z has in store... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 9:17 PM, Ginxy said: no games for me No not for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 9:38 PM, CoastalWx said: LOL at 18z GFS. Just a wee bit different. North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The 18z GFS is almost 12-15 hours faster than the 18z NAM as well. The GFS has the low near ACY at 00z Friday while the NAM has the low back near DC at the same hour and doesn't reach ACY until about 4-5z Friday. Then the NAM is very slow to move out while the GFS hauls ass eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NECT Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What is the wind forecast looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 lol at the GFS now. What a mess. There is going to be a narrow corridor that gets drenched... probably some thunder/convection too. If that sets up over some of the areas that have been hardest lately by rain flooding concerns could become pretty significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It is interesting that a portion of SW NE is in a slight risk and a mod risk just sw of that, while we all talk about a miller B. I don't know, just weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 9:48 PM, dryslot said: North As long as it's out for the weekend I'm good with that. Your golf game probably has different feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 10:00 PM, CT Rain said: lol at the GFS now. What a mess. There is going to be a narrow corridor that gets drenched... probably some thunder/convection too. If that sets up over some of the areas that have been hardest lately by rain flooding concerns could become pretty significant. Sure would make the 12z Euro look stupid if that succeeded Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 10:24 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Sure would make the 12z Euro look stupid if that succeeded 12z Euro was a lot more beefier than the 12z GFS. Tough to compare an 18z to a 12z run when they don't run an 18z euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 10:26 PM, CoastalWx said: 12z Euro was a lot more beefier than the 12z GFS. Tough to compare an 18z to a 12z run when they don't run an 18z euro.I think I would stick with the further south track shown on the 12z ECM as it has been much more consistent. Also, a slightly weaker storm is usually farther south not north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 On 6/12/2013 at 10:26 PM, CoastalWx said: 12z Euro was a lot more beefier than the 12z GFS. Tough to compare an 18z to a 12z run when they don't run an 18z euro. Not for N-central Mass ... Here were the machine Euro numbers... .Barely .14" total at FIT FRI 00Z 14-JUN 14.8 8.0 1007 80 92 0.02 566 560 FRI 06Z 14-JUN 11.9 7.4 1006 90 54 0.03 564 558 FRI 12Z 14-JUN 12.0 6.7 1006 84 72 0.01 561 556 FRI 18Z 14-JUN 14.1 6.5 1008 85 51 0.06 561 555 SAT 00Z 15-JUN 14.5 8.8 1008 92 57 0.02 562 555 But, as I pointed out earlier, it's not as trusting as usual, because the Euro had well over an inch for that same location on the 00z, which means it's having the same issue with continuity on this thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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