Disc Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I don't quite understand how some of the stations in my neighborhood measure the rain (there's a big discrepancy between them sometimes), but the one that seems more reliable is showing 2.44" (the other shows 1.92"). Wife's-breast-pump-vial method shows around 2.75". This despite the fact that my neighborhood mostly missed out on the line that came through at around 3. I'd say many factors could come into play on discrepancies. i.e near/under tall trees, rain shadow from a house or large structure, or perhaps the gauge itself isn't very accurate. I have two stations and one always runs considerably lower than the other. Only had 0.32" of rain today and the majority of that came from the rain that moved through early this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 One last one for the day... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 930 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... EASTERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 1000 PM EDT * AT 929 PM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS 6 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAINT MARYS RIVER...OR NEAR PINEY POINT...AND WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... SAINT MARYS CITY... SAINT MARYS RIVER... LEXINGTON PARK... PATUXENT RIVER NAS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I'd say many factors could come into play on discrepancies. i.e near/under tall trees, rain shadow from a house or large structure, or perhaps the gauge itself isn't very accurate. I have two stations and one always runs considerably lower than the other. Only had 0.32" of rain today and the majority of that came from the rain that moved through early this morning.. Yeah...good point. It's pretty obvious sometimes that the reported measurements are quite low. Either way, we've had a lot of rain in the last five days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 2.5 inches of rain thursday friday, 1.5 last night, 1.1 inches today. 5.1 inches in 4 days and still raining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Some pretty hefty rates in Odenton with the last bit of that line. Picked up a half inch in about 15 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Everyone get ready to discuss the next event starting tomorrow AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather 22s MT @fairfaxcounty: Huntington area experiencing street flooding and may see structural flooding too. County staff on site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Nice mesolow showing up on TBWI TDWR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Everyone get ready to discuss the next event starting tomorrow AM Tomorrow? I am waiting for the 00z NAM TONIGHT for Wed-Thurs Andyhb posted a few pages back an impressive model output for Thursday here per 18z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Tomorrow? I am waiting for the 00z NAM TONIGHT for Wed-Thurs Andyhb posted a few pages back an impressive model output for Thursday here per 18z GFS I am refusing. Choosing rest for my eyes over model watching!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Thursday gonna be interesting. Everyone east really got the show this evening. We just had a monsoon. No wind, a speck of lightening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 camera pic of the discrete thingy in front of the line.. some of the best base structure I've seen here. of course it started pouring about two seconds later so i didn't get many shots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 May end up being one of the great periods we talk about in regard to rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Capital Weather Gang @capitalweather 2m RT @dcabloob: RT @MDSHA: High water closing US 1 in Beltsville-use I-95 or MD 295 as alternates. Get latest @MD511Southern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 18z NAM had impressive sounding for 18z THUR at KIAD... very impressive signal 72 hrs out suggesting that it could be a very good day severe-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 18z NAM had impressive sounding for 18z THUR at KIAD... very impressive signal that far out the 12z nam looked great.. too bad it's so far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 the 12z nam looked great.. too bad it's so far out. Oh I know... but it looks so nice... closing in on 4000 SBCAPE and 3000 MLCAPE... LI -7... Hail near 2"... 45 kts 0-6km shear... decent ML Lapse rates... it looks so tasteh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 A little over 2 inches today. Still spitting out. Heaviest rain came in a robust 3am thunderstorm. I was more edged this evening with the tornadic mess over southern Carroll. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 Oh I know... but it looks so nice... closing in on 4000 SBCAPE and 3000 MLCAPE... LI -7... Hail near 2"... 45 kts 0-6km shear... decent ML Lapse rates... it looks so tasteh still not sure it looks like a derecho at least this far east. models have continued to like the idea of a developing surface low passing pretty close by.. some with the heaviest rain displaced either north or west of the low. this has a very solid 500mb vort. around here it looks like a potential legit tornado event tho perhaps it will morph into the derecho everyone's excited about. i could see how it happens but not sure that's my main interest for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 00z NAM on the h5 charts has what looks like a long lasting complex starting in NE/SD at 36 and racing ESEward into C Ohio at 60... and it makes a SE turn right through us Thursday afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 still not sure it looks like a derecho at least this far east. models have continued to like the idea of a developing surface low passing pretty close by.. some with the heaviest rain displaced either north or west of the low. this has a very solid 500mb vort. around here it looks like a potential legit tornado event tho perhaps it will morph into the derecho everyone's excited about. i could see how it happens but not sure that's my main interest for now. I am more looking at it as an MCS signal... with maybe some sups attached... I dont see derecho and agree with you... but i could see MCS with sups in front maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 TORNADO WARNINGMDC019-045-110315-/O.NEW.KAKQ.TO.W.0015.130611T0241Z-130611T0315Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA1041 PM EDT MON JUN 10 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WAKEFIELD HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN DORCHESTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MARYLAND... NORTHWESTERN WICOMICO COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST MARYLAND...* UNTIL 1115 PM EDT* AT 1036 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES SOUTH OF CAMBRIDGE...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR... VIENNA AROUND 1055 PM EDT. SHARPTOWN AROUND 1110 PM EDT.OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS DANGEROUS STORM INCLUDE MARDELASPRINGS...BROOKVIEW...ELDORADO AND GALESTOWN.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE... OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.&&LAT...LON 3866 7573 3863 7570 3847 7569 3846 7566 3837 7603 3847 7607TIME...MOT...LOC 0241Z 241DEG 29KT 3844 7597$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I am more looking at it as an MCS signal... with maybe some sups attached... I dont see derecho and agree with you... but i could see MCS with sups in front maybe I wouldn't totally doubt it can reach criteria especially west of the apps but the signal of a strengthening sub 1000mb low (which the GFS sorta miller b bombs after) is not something we saw at least in 08 or last yr. If this was the Plains I'd think Wed might be a 'day before the day' too. Not sure anything will fire (maybe it probably won't) but the atmosphere gets very ripe by late Wed especially across WV and into VA. One of the more interesting setups on models for svr I can recall. Could be a week we remember. Plus the pattern keeps unloading after. edit: of course, timing could be big on reaching top end. i'd maybe like to see everything slow at least slightly since things tend to speed up in realtime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 the new nam is northish but when's the last time we had a ~992 low nearby in june? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I wouldn't totally doubt it can reach criteria especially west of the apps but the signal of a strengthening sub 1000mb low (which the GFS sorta miller b bombs after) is not something we saw at least in 08 or last yr. If this was the Plains I'd think Wed might be a 'day before the day' too. Not sure anything will fire (maybe it probably won't) but the atmosphere gets very ripe by late Wed especially across WV and into VA. One of the more interesting setups on models for svr I can recall. Could be a week we remember. Plus the pattern keeps unloading after. edit: of course, timing could be big on reaching top end. i'd maybe like to see everything slow at least slightly since things tend to speed up in realtime. Nice post and agree... I do wonder when the last time we had a sub 1000mb low moving through PA area for us for severe in summer months... 00z NAM brings whatever the complex is in around 20-21z it would seem based off the h5 charts... so that gives us a good amount of time for heating and pretty much is peak svr time period for us... but as you said the models may speed up a bit... anything after 2 is usually fine here, I think '08 was around 3PM or so and we all got blasted... 00z NAM sounding for KIAD at 63 (15z THUR) is kinda ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 still not sure it looks like a derecho at least this far east. models have continued to like the idea of a developing surface low passing pretty close by.. some with the heaviest rain displaced either north or west of the low. this has a very solid 500mb vort. around here it looks like a potential legit tornado event tho perhaps it will morph into the derecho everyone's excited about. i could see how it happens but not sure that's my main interest for now. I only read that part and I am accepting that as your forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I mean this is kinda silly and fun and disturbing all at the same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 I only read that part and I am accepting that as your forecast. it's possible it's just a mcs/derecho and i'm looking too hard. i mean, that's interesting enough... but it's pretty close to how a higher end tornado outbreak might come together around here. of course i think part of that sfc low "bombing" is phasing from the northern stream as it gets around the lakes/northeast.. so perhaps that's not a good thing to bank on happening. of course a mcs/derecho could just cold pool at 1200 miles an hour as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 it's possible it's just a mcs/derecho and i'm looking too hard. i mean, that's interesting enough... but it's pretty close to how a higher end tornado outbreak might come together around here. of course i think part of that sfc low "bombing" is phasing from the northern stream as it gets around the lakes/northeast.. so perhaps that's not a good thing to bank on happening. of course a mcs/derecho could just cold pool at 1200 miles an hour as well. At least it is not 7+ days away I'm just glad to have something to watch to keep me from dying of boredom. Maybe I'd actually get off my lazy bum to get some pictures if something big happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 11, 2013 Share Posted June 11, 2013 the new nam is northish but when's the last time we had a ~992 low nearby in june? nam_namer_069_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif Yeah it's ridiculous. NAM has it far enough north to put us in the SWRLY LLJ. GFS is still alarming but probably the best dynamics with be closer to the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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