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June 10-14 Severe/Flooding Wx - Obs, Radar, Warnings, Dmg. rpts


wxmeddler

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Weird probs... low across the board but mod for both hail categories?

 PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE     A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK   GENERALLY EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON   SUSTAINED BY MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND INCREASING   INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF AN   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL VA. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR   PROFILES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LINEAR STRUCTURE TO THE LINE WITH   BOWING/ACCELERATING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS   AND DAMAGE. SOME LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE WERE CONVECTION   INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS VA...OR MORE ORGANIZED   SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP MESOVORTICES/BOW-HEAD   CIRCULATIONS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0306.html

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Weird probs... low across the board but mod for both hail categories?

 PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...     SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2       INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE     A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE     A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
DISCUSSION...ORGANIZED LINE OF CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK   GENERALLY EAST ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON   SUSTAINED BY MODEST LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND INCREASING   INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTH OF AN   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS SCNTRL VA. PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR   PROFILES WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN LINEAR STRUCTURE TO THE LINE WITH   BOWING/ACCELERATING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SEVERE WIND GUSTS   AND DAMAGE. SOME LOCALIZED TORNADO THREAT MAY EVOLVE WERE CONVECTION   INTERACTS WITH THE RESIDUAL BOUNDARY ACROSS VA...OR MORE ORGANIZED   SMALL SCALE BOWING SEGMENTS DEVELOP MESOVORTICES/BOW-HEAD   CIRCULATIONS.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0306.html

 

slight risk here we come

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SPC has been hit with lots of downgrades the last few days. I hate severe. 

 

t'storms are probably the trickiest weather phenom to accurately forecast in advance with specificity

 

maybe they'll hold it, but those are uber low probabilities even in most watches

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I'm changing my hopes - I now just want awesome lightning to look at. No longer care about the severe criteria today. 

 

 

90% of the area would not see severe criteria even if it does verify.  What exactly are you expecting to personally experience?  

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