H2O Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 doing a lot of this right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Did that discussion just mention an EML? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Captured a shelf cloud as the line moved over the Delaware Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Did that discussion just mention an EML? lol Yes, the 12z KIAD sounding on the SPC page has ML Lapse Rate of 7.6 C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Guess the clouds moved out up in Frederick. Went from 74F to 78F in the last 15 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Guess the clouds moved out up in Frederick. Went from 74F to 78F in the last 15 minutes Latest vis showing the cloud deck continuing to thin out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Also looks to be some sun/breaks in the clouds near Mathias, WV. There is also some precip around, though so the clearing should continue to remain quite limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 At the least the northern part of the mod seems it could be cut. Maybe even to DC or just south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Schools in PG are closing early. My wife's daycare is closeing early. Interesting. I can't ever recall this happening for thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Schools in PG are closing early. My wife's daycare is closeing early. Interesting. I can't ever recall this happening for thunderstorms. I might go home early. I am fearful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I might go home early. I am fearful. This is much more dangerous than those EF5's you were near in the Plains. Stay vigilant and safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 95% chance of a blue box: MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1038 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...NRN/CNTRLNC...NERN TNCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 131538Z - 131645ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENTSUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY ANISOLATED TORNADO WILL INCREASE ACROSS ERN WV...VA...CNTRL/ERNMD...DE...NRN NC...AND NERN TN FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ASEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT HOUR ORTWO. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF DELMARVA INTO NRN/CNTRL NC WILL BEUPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK.DISCUSSION...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MIDOH VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH 40+ KT MIDLEVEL WLYS SPREADINGDOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTICREGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NRN PA/WRNNY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KY. INADDITION...MORNING MCS EXITING OFFSHORE OVER NJ HAS LAID OUT AN E-WORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM DE/ERN MD INTO CNTRL/NRN VAAND WV. TEMPERATURES S OF THE OUTFLOW ARE WARMING WELL INTO THE 80SOVER CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTSIN THE 70S AND COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATESWILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPEVALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STARTING TO DESTABILIZEFROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EWD INTO CNTRL VA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TOALLOW STORMS FORMING OVER WV...AS WELL AS SQUALL LINE MOVING ESEWDAT 35-40 KT OVER KY...TO SPREAD E OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THEAFTERNOON. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONALSHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS.DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHERTHREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTFLOWBOUNDARY...GARNER/CARBIN.. 06/13/2013ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...PBZ...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...LAT...LON 39157947 39257579 38247479 36 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 SPC meso discussion is a little confusing - does this mean the mod will be trimmed to those boundaries or that areas not included will be added? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 We are probably the most weak spined area in the country when it comes to inclement weather, or the potential thereof. No reasons at all to close schools today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Moderate risk upgrade coming for much of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Watch inbound.... MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1059 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1038 AM CDT THU JUN 13 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...NRN/CNTRL NC...NERN TN CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 131538Z - 131645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT SUMMARY...THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL INCREASE ACROSS ERN WV...VA...CNTRL/ERN MD...DE...NRN NC...AND NERN TN FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE ISSUED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. IN ADDITION...PORTIONS OF DELMARVA INTO NRN/CNTRL NC WILL BE UPGRADED TO A MODERATE RISK. DISCUSSION...PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE MID OH VALLEY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH 40+ KT MIDLEVEL WLYS SPREADING DOWNSTREAM ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER NRN PA/WRN NY...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL KY. IN ADDITION...MORNING MCS EXITING OFFSHORE OVER NJ HAS LAID OUT AN E-W ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LOCATED FROM DE/ERN MD INTO CNTRL/NRN VA AND WV. TEMPERATURES S OF THE OUTFLOW ARE WARMING WELL INTO THE 80S OVER CNTRL/SRN VA AND NRN NC. THIS HEATING COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND COOL MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES/STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL YIELD STRONG INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES AOA 3000 J/KG. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS STARTING TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS EWD INTO CNTRL VA...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO ALLOW STORMS FORMING OVER WV...AS WELL AS SQUALL LINE MOVING ESEWD AT 35-40 KT OVER KY...TO SPREAD E OF THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT MAINLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES FAVORABLE FOR BOWING LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Don't think I have seen -16 left moving supercell composite before in our area Effective shear looks plentiful on the SPC meso charts for the next 6 hrs along with ~2000 MLCAP... SigTor parameters jump to 3 in early afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 That area they are upgrading looks really primed so not crazy to see upgrade there. Still wonder about the northern end. DC is sitting around 1000 cape with very little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 SPC meso discussion is a little confusing - does this mean the mod will be trimmed to those boundaries or that areas not included will be added? I read it as the latter of the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It's gonna pop this afternoon for sure. Sunshine and patchy clouds in RNK. Temps now mid 80's (overnight/AM mid 70's) and rising rapidly. Consistent wind speed of around 7mph with 20mph gusts increasing in frequency. It's only a matter of time before the Severe TS watch boxes hit our area this afternoon with the instability very high. I think MUCAPE is 3K currently based on NCEP plume data http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20130613&RT=09&PRM=3h-MLCAPE&SID=ROA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=37.57479024607978&mLON=-79.772144921875&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 That area they are upgrading looks really primed so not crazy to see upgrade there. Still wonder about the northern end. DC is sitting around 1000 cape with very little north. I am thinking that the MOD risk will be trimmed to BWI and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I am thinking that the MOD risk will be trimmed to BWI and south Probably DC and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Probably DC and south. What mod risk are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Just got a call from AA County Schools - All after school activity cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 What mod risk are you talking about? the one from yesterday.. duh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 That area they are upgrading looks really primed so not crazy to see upgrade there. Still wonder about the northern end. DC is sitting around 1000 cape with very little north. Wouldn't be surprised to see a quick rebound on the next mesoanalysis update, though. visible shows good thinning of the clouds still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Probably DC and south. Why are you being such a downer lately? Anti CTBLizz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised to see some nice cells pop south of 64 later on this afternoon. That area looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 We may kill off the clouds enough to get back to my 8:45am high temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised to see a quick rebound on the next mesoanalysis update, though. visible shows good thinning of the clouds still. yeah we should start to clear soon it seems.. but i'd still be surprised not to see the northern end of the mod trimmed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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