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June 10-14 Severe/Flooding Wx - Obs, Radar, Warnings, Dmg. rpts


wxmeddler

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So...maybe a slight balancing? Less heating --> cooler temperatures but also less time/chance for the high dews in the boundary layer to mix out. Lapse rate aloft still should be fairly prime.

That would mean a good chance for large hail correct, due to the lapse rates aloft?

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That would mean a good chance for large hail correct, due to the lapse rates aloft?

Well, you'd certainly want steep lapse rates aloft if you're expecting/looking for large hail.  Caveat is not sure how this morning's crud will affect the mid-level lapse rates.  Maybe one of our terrestrial meteorologists can provide that answer.  

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Well, you'd certainly want steep lapse rates aloft if you're expecting/looking for large hail.  Caveat is not sure how this morning's crud will affect the mid-level lapse rates.  Maybe one of our terrestrial meteorologists can provide that answer.  

 

Im sure that the crud stabilized the column some.  But height falls with the approaching wave should steepen the mid-layers once again.

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Not sure about that report as I believe it is the last day of school.  We are dismissing at noon in Winchester.  It's also our last day of school.

 

I wouldn't trust the Winchester Star for any real news.

Here in Orange County my daughter is here and just got a call to pick the kids up 2 hours earlier   were to have a full day today.

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the dynamics are still good but when you get a big cold pool push like this it can be really hard to recoup. we might stay mixed out etc. but, dews arent horrible and we'll be getting a vortmax punching in during the afternoon.. so we should get some storms.  hitting the high end potential seems iffy but who knows. 

 

i didn't think this first batch would push thru like that even if it was rather lame around here. maybe because it didn't mature until ohio instead of around chicago.

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More fun/typical just to call it a bust, no?

Certainly our chances for discrete super cells has gone down quite a bit, IMO, but the MCS complex out in OH is looking healthy and strengthening.  I think we'll get more rain/storms, just probably not the death and destruction that everyone "hoped" for.  

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Looping the visible in GRearth it seems the area cloudiness might be thinning more. Areas near Winchester seem like they might clear out a bit. I wish we could just shove this cloudmass elsewhere. 

Only slightly brighter here.  No sunshine at all.  And looking like more rain inbound.

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This system specializes in warm sector collapse technology and will do a similar implosion over the mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. You might start out in the warm sector in places south of BWI, then find that the warm front is being pulled back into the collapsing "spine" of the system while the cold front is replaced by multiple bands of convection heading more south than east. This could all lead to very heavy rainfalls in MD, se PA and the Delmarva, s NJ (potential for 4-6 inch repeated TRW+). Winds will tend to back rather than veer in many locations, from SE to NE to NW as the system goes through. Further south, the warm sector will get very cluttered up with debris cloud and convection, it won't be anywhere near as clean as today's early situation in s/c IL-IN.

 

As to the derecho potential from tonight's action in IN, figure on that stalling out around central PA and western MD with leftover convection more associated with the collapsing warm frontal band back-dooring into the region from e PA.

 

The main concept I wanted to stress was that the warm sector will be under pressure from both sides, cold front and retreating warm front and just being ahead of the advancing low may not be enough to keep the usual temperature trends in place, places like PHL, BWI, SBY and probably DCA-IAD will start out in 78/72 type disturbed warm sector, then one by one will be pushed back to about 72/68 RW, then something like 67/67 TRW+ with winds going from SSE to NE before the cold front arrives. Places in southern VA will get up to about 88/74 before a more classic type cold front passage with tornadic potential. Places between DC and RIC could see oscillations of the warm front and wherever the triple point ends up at maximum daytime heating (Williamsburg?) could see very severe hail . These trends will develop gradually after a rather bland start to the day (east of the mountains) and similar effects may be noticed in western MD, WV panhandle and south central PA around 17-18z.

 

Further north it could be expected that temperature forecasts may bust with the back-door frontal potential combining with the second frontal band (the one currently in MI and across Lake Erie) to produce a backing wind in n NJ, ne PA and NYC/LI with temps crashing to mid to low 60s with northeast winds and heavy rain.

 

Hate to say this being a golf fan but PHL could easily see 4-6 inch rains tomorrow.

 

 

Can someone please explain to me what warm sector collapse technology is?

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1051 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TODAY. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL PASS THROUGH
TONIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD TOWARD THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HAVE BEEN ABLE TO TRIM OFF THE REST OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 303 AS THE MRNG MCS EXITED THE CHSPK BAY.

CLOUD COVER FROM THE MCS THIS MRNG AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG THE RESIDUAL MCS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN WV WILL
LIMIT AMT OF SFC HEATING AND ADDS TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE SECOND
ROUND OF STORMS THIS AFTN. NONETHELESS...THERE IS STILL A
POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE THIS AFTN. THE
MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS AFTN IS THE LINE OF STORMS THAT HAVE BEEN
ORGANIZING ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SRN OH AND NW KY. SPC
CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS EAST OF
THE BLUE RIDGE. WHILE THE CLOUD COVER MAY LIMIT THE AMNT OF
INSTABILITY...STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES WITH AN EML...HIGH SHEAR
PROFILES /0-6 KM SHEAR OF 50-70 KT/ AND STRONG FORCING AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT AND VORT MAX WILL STILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A
FEW TORNADOES MAINLY IN MD WHERE THE FLOW IS SFC BACKED NEAR A
WARM FRONT BOUNDARY.

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