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June 10-14 Severe/Flooding Wx - Obs, Radar, Warnings, Dmg. rpts


wxmeddler

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You stayin up to see if the MCS can make it over the mountains?

 

Edit: The cells are lackluster from here. It's sad really.

probably not. i should already be asleep heh.

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This system specializes in warm sector collapse technology and will do a similar implosion over the mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. You might start out in the warm sector in places south of BWI, then find that the warm front is being pulled back into the collapsing "spine" of the system

 

Warm sector collapse technology?

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This system specializes in warm sector collapse technology and will do a similar implosion over the mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. You might start out in the warm sector in places south of BWI, then find that the warm front is being pulled back into the collapsing "spine" of the system while the cold front is replaced by multiple bands of convection heading more south than east. This could all lead to very heavy rainfalls in MD, se PA and the Delmarva, s NJ (potential for 4-6 inch repeated TRW+). Winds will tend to back rather than veer in many locations, from SE to NE to NW as the system goes through. Further south, the warm sector will get very cluttered up with debris cloud and convection, it won't be anywhere near as clean as today's early situation in s/c IL-IN.

As to the derecho potential from tonight's action in IN, figure on that stalling out around central PA and western MD with leftover convection more associated with the collapsing warm frontal band back-dooring into the region from e PA.

The main concept I wanted to stress was that the warm sector will be under pressure from both sides, cold front and retreating warm front and just being ahead of the advancing low may not be enough to keep the usual temperature trends in place, places like PHL, BWI, SBY and probably DCA-IAD will start out in 78/72 type disturbed warm sector, then one by one will be pushed back to about 72/68 RW, then something like 67/67 TRW+ with winds going from SSE to NE before the cold front arrives. Places in southern VA will get up to about 88/74 before a more classic type cold front passage with tornadic potential. Places between DC and RIC could see oscillations of the warm front and wherever the triple point ends up at maximum daytime heating (Williamsburg?) could see very severe hail . These trends will develop gradually after a rather bland start to the day (east of the mountains) and similar effects may be noticed in western MD, WV panhandle and south central PA around 17-18z.

Further north it could be expected that temperature forecasts may bust with the back-door frontal potential combining with the second frontal band (the one currently in MI and across Lake Erie) to produce a backing wind in n NJ, ne PA and NYC/LI with temps crashing to mid to low 60s with northeast winds and heavy rain.

Hate to say this being a golf fan but PHL could easily see 4-6 inch rains tomorrow.

lolwut

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How exactly do you "confirm" a TOG in the wee hours of the morning? (Re: Spotters reported poss TOR near Custar in CLE CWA)

poorly. a lot of confirmed tornadoes in warnings end up not being tornadoes. but, could be powerflashes or something.

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Classic Rodger Smith posting... :wacko2:

 

So it's looking like:

 

Round 1: Warm Front - 3-5 AM - Small Hail, Lightning

Round 2: Ohio Valley MCS - 7-9 AM - Lightning, Up to severe criteria winds

Round 3: Sct. Supercell potential - 10A - 2P - Hail, wind, tors.

Round 4: Cold Front - 2-7P - Severe criteria damaging winds.

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Hey its 1:00 AM... its a SWS update for your county... and... oooh... ouch bro (from RLX -- Charleston WV)

WVC091-130530-  /O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-130613T0530Z/  TAYLOR WV-  118 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013    ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM EDT  FOR TAYLOR COUNTY...    AT 116 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO  INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS  IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAFTON...MOVING  EAST AT 30 MPH.    OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO  KNOTTSVILLE AND THORNTON  
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It seems the persistent convection reaches 40-45 thousand, but when the Charles Co. cell first went up it tapped 55kft.

You know what, I was going to say 60K but that's such a big number for 12midnightish.  For me to have been able to see clearly the outlines of those towering cumulus, this far away, I knew it has to be extreme.

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Hey its 1:00 AM... its a SWS update for your county... and... oooh... ouch bro (from RLX -- Charleston WV)


I fear the number of mobile homes that may be there.  Wow...

 

 

Rumbles of thunder here.  

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I fear the number of mobile homes that are likely there.  Wow...

 

 

Rumbles of thunder here.  

 

10 mins later it was back to 60mph on another updated SWS 5 mins ago to now non-severe as the warning just expired... so either there was an error or a downburst or it weakened quickly

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