yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 can see the flashes from here. supercells are win. Even I can see them... thats awesome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 You stayin up to see if the MCS can make it over the mountains? Edit: The cells are lackluster from here. It's sad really. probably not. i should already be asleep heh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Popping in from your north in Harrisburg; if I go to sleep will the derecho kill me overnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Even I can see them... thats awesome Going outside now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Colonel Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 KBHM to KDCA Depart 6:25AM Arrive 9:30AM Hmmm...hope LWX's discussion is right about weakening dramaticly overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I'm 60 miles away from that in southern md and it's lighting up the sky so much I can see the outlines of the towering cumulus. Special vantage event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Need more WV radar. And supercells during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This system specializes in warm sector collapse technology and will do a similar implosion over the mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. You might start out in the warm sector in places south of BWI, then find that the warm front is being pulled back into the collapsing "spine" of the system Warm sector collapse technology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brianonymous Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I can see stars clear as day... Err..night... But my neighborhood is lighting up like an arc welder... Neat... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This system specializes in warm sector collapse technology and will do a similar implosion over the mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. You might start out in the warm sector in places south of BWI, then find that the warm front is being pulled back into the collapsing "spine" of the system while the cold front is replaced by multiple bands of convection heading more south than east. This could all lead to very heavy rainfalls in MD, se PA and the Delmarva, s NJ (potential for 4-6 inch repeated TRW+). Winds will tend to back rather than veer in many locations, from SE to NE to NW as the system goes through. Further south, the warm sector will get very cluttered up with debris cloud and convection, it won't be anywhere near as clean as today's early situation in s/c IL-IN. As to the derecho potential from tonight's action in IN, figure on that stalling out around central PA and western MD with leftover convection more associated with the collapsing warm frontal band back-dooring into the region from e PA. The main concept I wanted to stress was that the warm sector will be under pressure from both sides, cold front and retreating warm front and just being ahead of the advancing low may not be enough to keep the usual temperature trends in place, places like PHL, BWI, SBY and probably DCA-IAD will start out in 78/72 type disturbed warm sector, then one by one will be pushed back to about 72/68 RW, then something like 67/67 TRW+ with winds going from SSE to NE before the cold front arrives. Places in southern VA will get up to about 88/74 before a more classic type cold front passage with tornadic potential. Places between DC and RIC could see oscillations of the warm front and wherever the triple point ends up at maximum daytime heating (Williamsburg?) could see very severe hail . These trends will develop gradually after a rather bland start to the day (east of the mountains) and similar effects may be noticed in western MD, WV panhandle and south central PA around 17-18z. Further north it could be expected that temperature forecasts may bust with the back-door frontal potential combining with the second frontal band (the one currently in MI and across Lake Erie) to produce a backing wind in n NJ, ne PA and NYC/LI with temps crashing to mid to low 60s with northeast winds and heavy rain. Hate to say this being a golf fan but PHL could easily see 4-6 inch rains tomorrow. lolwut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 How exactly do you "confirm" a TOG in the wee hours of the morning? (Re: Spotters reported poss TOR near Custar in CLE CWA) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 lolwut Glad I wasn't the only one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 How exactly do you "confirm" a TOG in the wee hours of the morning? (Re: Spotters reported poss TOR near Custar in CLE CWA) poorly. a lot of confirmed tornadoes in warnings end up not being tornadoes. but, could be powerflashes or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Glad I wasn't the only one. Yeah me too. I thought we went full DARPA, warm sector technologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Warm sector collapse technology? Seems legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Warm sector collapse technology? Clearly HAARP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Posted on Twitter by Maue... a bit out there on the RAP, but still looks very good for us svr-wise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 All the way in Montgomery county I can see the flashes from this beautiful tower. Severe season is the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Classic Rodger Smith posting... So it's looking like: Round 1: Warm Front - 3-5 AM - Small Hail, Lightning Round 2: Ohio Valley MCS - 7-9 AM - Lightning, Up to severe criteria winds Round 3: Sct. Supercell potential - 10A - 2P - Hail, wind, tors. Round 4: Cold Front - 2-7P - Severe criteria damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 What are some of this things towering up to. I think it way up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 What are some of this things towering up to. I think it way up. It seems the persistent convection reaches 40-45 thousand, but when the Charles Co. cell first went up it tapped 55kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Hey its 1:00 AM... its a SWS update for your county... and... oooh... ouch bro (from RLX -- Charleston WV) WVC091-130530- /O.CON.KRLX.SV.W.0021.000000T0000Z-130613T0530Z/ TAYLOR WV- 118 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM EDT FOR TAYLOR COUNTY... AT 116 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 90 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR GRAFTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO KNOTTSVILLE AND THORNTON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Just faint flickerings now but still a lot of that and it's gotta be approaching 100 miles away from me! It concerns me that tomroow afternoon instead of an isolated event like this one, it will be more widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It seems the persistent convection reaches 40-45 thousand, but when the Charles Co. cell first went up it tapped 55kft. You know what, I was going to say 60K but that's such a big number for 12midnightish. For me to have been able to see clearly the outlines of those towering cumulus, this far away, I knew it has to be extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well 30 mins till new Day 1... quick guesses as to what the probs and risk will be? I will go with MOD risk, 5 TOR/15 hail/45 hatched wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Hey its 1:00 AM... its a SWS update for your county... and... oooh... ouch bro (from RLX -- Charleston WV) I fear the number of mobile homes that may be there. Wow... Rumbles of thunder here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I fear the number of mobile homes that are likely there. Wow... Rumbles of thunder here. 10 mins later it was back to 60mph on another updated SWS 5 mins ago to now non-severe as the warning just expired... so either there was an error or a downburst or it weakened quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 MOD 10/15/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I'll go with 10/30/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 5/15/45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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