yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1053 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1022 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...OH...SW PA...NRN WV CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 301... VALID 130322Z - 130415Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 301 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE AND MAY INCREASE ACROSS WW 301 AS A LINEAR MCS APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. NEW WW ISSUANCE WILL BE NECESSARY TO REPLACE PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT WATCH. DISCUSSION...A BOWING LINEAR MCS IS CURRENTLY ORGANIZING ACROSS NCNTRL IND. THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE BOW IS VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE VALUES ESTIMATED TO BE IN THE 2500 TO 3500 J/KG. IN ADDITION...STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS IN PLACE WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR ESTIMATED BY WSR-88D VWPS AT 40 TO 50 KT. THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT A SEVERE THREAT LATE THIS EVENING AS THE BOW CONTINUES TO ORGANIZE. THE BOW SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE AND WIND GUSTS ABOVE 70 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE. A TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST AS THE LINE MOVES INTO CNTRL AND ERN OH DUE TO A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET. SUPERCELLS OUT AHEAD OF THE LINE WILL ALSO HAVE A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AND HAIL. ..BROYLES/HART.. 06/13/2013 ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...PBZ...RLX...CLE...ILN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 They're going warned very quickly. Tops in the 50-55k range. That should roll through here around 3-4 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 David Tolleris has not thrown in the towel on potential derecho for DC tomorrow judging from his comments. EDIT: " *** STAND BY ... NEW MODEL DATA COMING ... THINGS LOOKING WORSE FOR MORE OF VA MD ... new imnges out shortly" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 That MCS is going good now, measured reports of 65, estimated reports of 80 and a tractor trailer rolled on I-69 N of Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 00z NAM/GFS and 21z SREF look slightly more impressive than their previous runs. I bet SPC sticks with Moderate Risk for the region. Highest tornado threat MD/DE/SE PA/S NJ, but still relatively solid shot at severe weather into VA as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 00z NAM/GFS and 21z SREF look slightly more impressive than their previous runs. I bet SPC sticks with Moderate Risk for the region. Highest tornado threat MD/DE/SE PA/S NJ, but still relatively solid shot at severe weather into VA as well. Def agree... Prob more wind threat S of DCA... better tor threat between DCA and PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 David Tolleris has not thrown in the towel on potential derecho for DC tomorrow judging from his comments. EDIT: " *** STAND BY ... NEW MODEL DATA COMING ... THINGS LOOKING WORSE FOR MORE OF VA MD ...new imnges out shortly" i doubt it since he's been against a derecho in this area for days and was calling people morons earlier for saying it. the advertised threat east of the apps has never been a derecho tho some have misinterpreted it as that. who knows.. maybe the cold pool will just go nuts and it won't matter and it'll just roll continuously but the signs around here have been for development along the front as a mostly separate if interrelated entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chase Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 PDS STW replaces Tornado Watch for West Virginia, Ohio, Garrett County.. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0302.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 MCS Discussion So I'm curious, are they trying to say the MCS located over IN will have the potential of crossing OH into PA because the conditions can support it overnight? It's been a while since I've personally seen such an outbreak in this neck of the woods hold up overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Nice storm in Wetzel County WV moving E on eastern end of current TW from SPC... warned for half dollar hail and winds 60+,,, wont be long till it reaches NW corner of the LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 PDS STW replaces Tornado Watch for West Virginia, Ohio, Garrett County.. Watch pushes right up against LWX CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 Heh, a 30 43 kft shower thunderstorm just popped in Charles Co. Just goes to show the elevated instability is there. Sterling just popped into VCP 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well SPC said the "D" word in their disco of the PDS STW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well SPC said the "D" word in their disco of the PDS STW I think the big problem with talking derecho is most people don't seem to understand there could be one to the west of the apps and it not make it here. Last year the bow was where it is now in like mid-morning. This time it will be running into an atmosphere near minimum heating in the apps. It's highly likely it will die before new activity develops east of the apps later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Heh, a 30 43 kft shower thunderstorm just popped in Charles Co. Just goes to show the elevated instability is there. But LWX said there was a stout cap at 750mb on 00z IAD sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 If your up.. check out Andrews TDWR base 1-min velocity and load the last few frames, the Charles co cell just dropped its downdraft. Pretty cool. /wxnerd edit: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I told work I would be in late in the morning so I could stay up for the ever important Day 1 2am OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 But LWX said there was a stout cap at 750mb on 00z IAD sounding The only cap this storm is worried about is the big one at 200mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Cool little cell. It's putting down some nice rain as well. Radar estimates nearing an inch in small area. The only cap this storm is worried about is the big one at 200mb! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Yeah... so much for that cap LWX BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1214 AM EDT THU JUN 13 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EASTERN CHARLES COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... NORTHERN ST. MARYS COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... SOUTHEASTERN PRINCE GEORGES COUNTY IN CENTRAL MARYLAND... SOUTHERN CALVERT COUNTY IN SOUTHERN MARYLAND... * UNTIL 1245 AM EDT * AT 1209 AM EDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS DETECTED NEAR HALLOWING POINT...AND WAS MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... FLAG HARBOR... SAINT LEONARD CREEK... CALVERT CLIFFS... LUSBY... CHESAPEAKE RANCH ESTATES... THIS STORM IS PRODUCING FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE INDOORS IMMEDIATELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Yeah... so much for that cap LWX Ton of lightning in that thing. Someone should be having a good light show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow, my buddy has quite the view, check this out - https://vine.co/v/bldKbhmLTdm - Beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winteraddict Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Ton of lightning in that thing. Someone should be having a good light show. Yeah lots of flashes. Can hear thunder in distance. Storm is 15-20 miles south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow, my buddy has quite the view, check this out - https://vine.co/v/bldKbhmLTdm - Beautiful Great link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kas80 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 We are a bit too far north in Calvert to get the storm itself but the light show is fantastic. Watching out of our bedroom windows. Near constant flashing. Can also hear the (distant) thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It means alot when you can achieve this kind of pre-frontal activity with such a marginal airmass. Instant lightning and thunder followed by heavy rain, wasn't expecting anything. There appears to be discrete activity everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 I'm about 45 miles away and I just stepped outside and it's a light show on the tower man. Good stuff. I was hoping to hear some ducted thunder but no such luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 This system specializes in warm sector collapse technology and will do a similar implosion over the mid-Atlantic region tomorrow. You might start out in the warm sector in places south of BWI, then find that the warm front is being pulled back into the collapsing "spine" of the system while the cold front is replaced by multiple bands of convection heading more south than east. This could all lead to very heavy rainfalls in MD, se PA and the Delmarva, s NJ (potential for 4-6 inch repeated TRW+). Winds will tend to back rather than veer in many locations, from SE to NE to NW as the system goes through. Further south, the warm sector will get very cluttered up with debris cloud and convection, it won't be anywhere near as clean as today's early situation in s/c IL-IN. As to the derecho potential from tonight's action in IN, figure on that stalling out around central PA and western MD with leftover convection more associated with the collapsing warm frontal band back-dooring into the region from e PA. The main concept I wanted to stress was that the warm sector will be under pressure from both sides, cold front and retreating warm front and just being ahead of the advancing low may not be enough to keep the usual temperature trends in place, places like PHL, BWI, SBY and probably DCA-IAD will start out in 78/72 type disturbed warm sector, then one by one will be pushed back to about 72/68 RW, then something like 67/67 TRW+ with winds going from SSE to NE before the cold front arrives. Places in southern VA will get up to about 88/74 before a more classic type cold front passage with tornadic potential. Places between DC and RIC could see oscillations of the warm front and wherever the triple point ends up at maximum daytime heating (Williamsburg?) could see very severe hail . These trends will develop gradually after a rather bland start to the day (east of the mountains) and similar effects may be noticed in western MD, WV panhandle and south central PA around 17-18z. Further north it could be expected that temperature forecasts may bust with the back-door frontal potential combining with the second frontal band (the one currently in MI and across Lake Erie) to produce a backing wind in n NJ, ne PA and NYC/LI with temps crashing to mid to low 60s with northeast winds and heavy rain. Hate to say this being a golf fan but PHL could easily see 4-6 inch rains tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 can see the flashes from here. supercells are win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
biodhokie Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 can see the flashes from here. supercells are win. You stayin up to see if the MCS can make it over the mountains? Edit: The cells are lackluster from here. It's sad really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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