Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It is early but it kinda looks like a slight risk would have worked for the high risk area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It is early but it kinda looks like a slight risk would have worked for the high risk area. So is that two days where SPC risk is too high? We can make three tomorrow maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It is early but it kinda looks like a slight risk would have worked for the high risk area. I disagree. Tornadic supercells, tennis-ball sized hail, high storm coverage? Sounds like a moderate if I've ever seen one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I think it was a High Risk today? The SREF looks north to me for you guys, but not sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I disagree. Tornadic supercells, tennis-ball sized hail, high storm coverage? Sounds like a moderate if I've ever seen one. How about let's wait for the 00z suite? The 21z SPC SREF isn't out yet. NAM has initialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 How about let's wait for the 00z suite? The 21z SPC SREF isn't out yet. NAM has initialized... It says SREF is out on NCEP...low looks a bit stronger and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 How about let's wait for the 00z suite? The 21z SPC SREF isn't out yet. NAM has initialized... You need the models to reflect on forecasts?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Well well... 21z SREF returns to the idea of a deepening low as it moves across S PA and it has slowed it down some Between 18z and 21z, low deepens 3-4 mb it would appear as it slowly moves across C PA along the turnpike... at 00z, it is at 996mb just E of PHL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I disagree. Tornadic supercells, tennis-ball sized hail, high storm coverage? Sounds like a moderate if I've ever seen one. it's early. the wind reports are not very impressive and there is not huge coverage so far. some tornadoes in june isn't that unusual across that region. slight might be pushing it but i've seen slights that look like today so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boo radley Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Wow.. I was right, SREF tracks along or N of the PA Turnpike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 0z nam looks a hair west but a hair weaker through 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 And unless the 00z NAM decides to zip that low east quickly... 00z NAM should be slower as well with the low in C OH at 12z tomorrow at 1000mb... it might even be a smidge slower than 18z was... 00z is also slightly more NE with the low than 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Where's AviationDave when you need him.....just saw a PIREP from within ORDs area reporting mod-sev turbulence and severe clear icing. That doesn't sound too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Four Seasons Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Where's AviationDave when you need him.....just saw a PIREP from within ORDs area reporting mod-sev turbulence and severe clear icing. That doesn't sound too good. I'm on the phone with my brother at the moment and he is a pilot (small planes). He took the Lord's name in vain when I told him what you said. He elaborated and said that's a bad, bad thing. He adds that severe turbulence can be catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Initiation early afternoon on the NAM. In time for the metro areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Initiation early afternoon on the NAM. In time for the metro areas. Looks like the NAM is also a tad further north with the LP... looks just NE of PIT at 18z... would that help with backing of the winds more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Where's AviationDave when you need him.....just saw a PIREP from within ORDs area reporting mod-sev turbulence and severe clear icing. That doesn't sound too good. Yep, you are in for a rough ride with that 1-2 combo. Pax: ding! Flight attendant: Yes? Pax: I think I need another vomit bag or two F.A.: Hang on, me too. lol ill be curious to hear pax talk tomorrow at work when they get off the planes and then they will blame the F.O. and Pilot. WTF lol EDIT: that PIREP was over Lansing, Michigan at 150-170 FL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Ah ok thats fine... just be ready for MOD risk at 0600z PDS baby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 A hair stronger but same speed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 At 21z NAM still has the low just north of FDK by about 50-70 miles... and by 00z its moving through BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach McGuirk Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 NAM going with a straight line wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 At 21z NAM still has the low just north of FDK by about 50-70 miles... NCEP site showing it over I80 at 21z down to maybe south of Harrisburg at 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Midlo Snow Maker Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Damn this thread is just as bad as when a winter storm is near by. Winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 After reading all 27 pages of this thread, I sure hope there will never again be people making fun of snow weenies. We are a dream compared to some of this stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 After reading all 27 pages of this thread, I sure hope there will never again be people making fun of snow weenies. We are a dream compared to some of this stuff. If you factor in all of the new people or lurkers that come out when snow is coming I'd disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 After reading all 27 pages of this thread, I sure hope there will never again be people making fun of snow weenies. We are a dream compared to some of this stuff. Snow weenies are the wurst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 weenie fights should go elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 If you factor in all of the new people or lurkers that come out when snow is coming I'd disagree We will agree to disagree . Although I have to admit this severe stuff is a little more exciting than I thought. I am just way to old to try to learn it all from scratch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 weenie fights should go elsewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Couple tws in OH and one back in IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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