yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 15z SREF mean has the L at 1000mb near/over BWI at 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Nothing going on in the Ohio Valley, that's quite the high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 15z SREF mean has the L at 1000mb near/over BWI at 21z Is that faster or slower than last run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Nothing going on in the Ohio Valley, that's quite the high risk. the high/mod risk is valid until 12z tomorrow, so just because it isn't happening right now, doesn't mean it won't happen at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Nothing going on in the Ohio Valley, that's quite the high risk. Not supposed to get going there till about 430-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Nothing going on in the Ohio Valley, that's quite the high risk. Wait another hour or 2 for intiation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Nothing going on in the Ohio Valley, that's quite the high risk. that is something I have been watching and waiting to see. Looks like we have a few cells in Iowa reaching 45k. Most of the fireworks will probably happen later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is that faster or slower than last run? Slightly weaker and looks like same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 and a tor watch was recently issued just west of the HR area. Not supposed to get going there till about 430-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not supposed to get going there till about 430-5 Yeah, should be interesting when the atmosphere decides to trigger. Very high surface-based instability across a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 From Philly forum The new 12z GFS/UKMET clearly show a more progressive evolution as a convectively-induced vorticity maximum rides east a bit ahead in the long-wave. They both also show the SLP diving more southeastward throughout the afternoon and have better timing with current trends/placement of features than the slower 00z ECMWF (all of which is outlined nicely in this afternoon's model discussion). Clearly, the situation tomorrow relies heavily on what kind of beast develops today in the Midwest and the effect it has on the mid levels. Even with the progressive/further south scenario, a tornadic window may still exist late morning-early afternoon for the areas outlined in this morning's hatched zone from the SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HRRR has some storms in by midnight, then the OH initiated cluster gets here by 3-4am or so. The Chicago stuff trails that, nailing Cleveland at 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Posted by ORH_wxman in the New England forum. Euro ensembles are north of the OP and consequently more robust with QPF. Tonight's runs should be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 NAM looks slower to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z NAM a little slower than 12z, and that looks to be just enough to get storms in the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 NAM looks slower to me Its slower by a lil bit over 12z... at 18z about 50-75 miles east of PIT to 21z it looks like its near or just north of FDK to 00z over BWI 15z SREFs really also cut back on the SigTor ingredients for everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Its slower by a lil bit over 12z... at 21z it looks like its near of just north of FDK 15z SREFs really also cut back on the SigTor ingredients for everyone Makes sense given the progressive nature now and weaker low. Damaging wind threat seems to be the highest risk with isolated tornadoes possible. Pretty similar to most of our severe events around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Derecho and widespread powerfailures near the Mason-Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Makes sense given the progressive nature now and weaker low. Damaging wind threat seems to be the highest risk with isolated tornadoes possible. Pretty similar to most of our severe events around here. I think a 10/15/45 will prob be what we see at 0600z with MOD risk... could be be more 5/15/45 though (tor/hail/wind) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Probably is putting it kindly. Condsider bing stuck on the Beltway or I-95 when an EF2 or 3 comes a roarin'. Although most single-family homes here have some sort of basement to go to besides the townhomes with garages on the bottom floor. Not too mnay people would be aware of tornado sirens or have even practiced tornado safety either. You can imagine if that devastating La Plata tornado from 10 or so years back had hit a very densly populated area like say northern VA including going over a jammed up beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Here's another way of thinking about it. This is the pressure and CAPE graph of all the SREF ensemble members at BWI airport. You can see the majority pass the center/ cold front over BWI at 5pm. Consider that point the point at which there are uni-directional winds. Before that, any surface winds will be slightly backed. Now look at the CAPE (green,yellow and red are strength of helicity). High time for tornadoes is clearly between 11am and 2pm and then the mode should switch to dmg. winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Yeah, should be interesting when the atmosphere decides to trigger. Very high surface-based instability across a large area.[/quote And there it goes. About to get nasty out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Is the Euro still king for these kind of events?...Why do we show it so much deference? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 PDS Severe Tstorm Watch coming shortly for High Risk area FWIW... that is the area to watch next few hours to see how MCS or "D" congeals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Quite the couplet on the tornado warned cell. It started rotating almost immediatly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Four Tornadoes Confirmed PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC446 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013...FOUR CONFIRMED TORNADOES IN MARYLAND ON JUNE 10TH...FOUR TORNADOES HAVE NOW BEEN CONFIRMED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICESTORM SURVEYS FROM THE JUNE 10TH THUNDERSTORM OUTBREAK - BALTIMORECITY...BALTIMORE COUNTY...HOWARD COUNTY...AND SAINT MARYS COUNTY.THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING EXPRESSES ITS APPRECIATIONTO THOSE WHO ASSISTED IN CONDUCTING SURVEYS AND PROVIDED INFORMATIONUSED DURING THE SURVEYS...INCLUDING MEMBERS OF THE EMERGENCYMANAGEMENT AND TRANSPORTATION COMMUNITIES...SKYWARN STORMSPOTTERS...AND MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS....TORNADO CONFIRMED IN FORK MARYLAND...LOCATION...FORK IN BALTIMORE COUNTY MARYLANDDATE...JUNE 10 2013ESTIMATED TIME...3:28 PM EDT TO 3:30 PM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDSPATH LENGTH...0.5 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...39.462N / 76.449WENDING LAT/LON...39.473N / 76.447W* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...EYEWITNESS ACCOUNTS AND STORM DAMAGE SURVEY CONCLUDED A SMALLTORNADO OCCURRED IN FORK, MARYLAND, FROM APPROXIMATELY 3:28 TO 3:30PM EDT ON JUNE 10, 2013.ABOUT SIX TREES WERE UPROOTED IN THE MOUNT VISTA ESTATES SUBDIVISIONOF FORK ALONG VISTA VIEW COURT. THESE TREES WERE A MIX OF HARDWOODAND SOFTWOOD, SOME FALLING AT ANGLES OF UP TO 120 DEGREES FROM EACHOTHER. SEVERAL EYEWITNESSES SAW SWIRLING DEBRIS WITHIN THE WINDFIELD AS THE DAMAGE WAS OCCURRING. ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE ALONGWITH DAMAGE TO A WOOD FENCE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE STREET FROM FORKUNITED METHODIST CHURCH ON FORK ROAD, APPROXIMATELY 0.5 MILES NORTHOF THE DAMAGE IN MOUNT VISTA ESTATES. THE SURVEY TEAM CROSSED THEPATH BETWEEN THESE TWO POINTS, AS WELL AS UP TO TWO MILES ON EITHEREND OF THE DAMAGE, BUT NO FURTHER DAMAGE COULD BE FOUND.BASED ON THE TREE DAMAGE, THIS TORNADO IS RATED EF-0, WITH ESTIMATEDWIND SPEEDS OF 70-80 MPH. THE 0.5 MILE DAMAGE PATH LENGTH WASDISCONTINUOUS, WITH AN ESTIMATED WIDTH OF 100 YARDS. TIME ON THEGROUND WAS APPROXIMATELY 2 MINUTES. START TIME 3:28 PM.&&...TORNADO CONFIRMED IN BALTIMORE MARYLAND...LOCATION...LOCUST POINT IN BALTIMORE CITY MARYLANDDATE...JUNE 10 2013ESTIMATED TIME...3:44 PM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDSPATH LENGTH...0.2 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...39.262N / 76.593WENDING LAT/LON...39.265N / 76.593W* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION INNWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...A METAL BUILDING STRUCTURE IN THE SOUTH LOCUST POINT MARINETERMINAL WAS DAMAGED WHEN A WATERSPOUT OVER THE PATAPSCO RIVERCAME ONSHORE, TRANSFORMING TO A SMALL TORNADO FROM APPROXIMATELY3:44 TO 3:45 PM EDT ON JUNE 10, 2013.THE METAL BUILDING STRUCTURE HAD A PORTION OF ITS NORTHEAST ROOFPEELED UP, WRAPPING IT BACK AND FOLDING IT OVER THE EAST-FACINGSIDE OF THE BUILDING. ADDITIONALLY, A SMALL TRAILER ON WHEELS WASDEMOLISHED AS IT WAS PROPELLED TO THE NORTHWEST ABOUT 60 FEET FROMITS POSITION ON CINDER BLOCKS. AN AIR CONDITIONING UNIT WHICH WASPERMANENTLY INSTALLED IN THE WALL OF AN OFFICE ON THE NORTH FACINGSIDE OF THE BUILDING IN PROXIMITY TO WHERE THE ROOF DAMAGEOCCURRED WAS BLOWN-IN. A LARGE AMOUNT OF DEBRIS WAS SEEN PLASTEREDTO A EAST-FACING CHAIN LINK FENCE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE PARKINGLOT.AREAS TO THE NORTH THE MARINE TERMINAL WERE ALSO SURVEYED, AND NOFURTHER DAMAGE WAS FOUND.&&...BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN COLTONS POINT MARYLAND...LOCATION...COLTONS POINT IN ST MARYS COUNTY MARYLANDDATE...JUNE 10 2013ESTIMATED TIME...9:01 PM TO 9:01 PM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...65 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...50 YARDSLENGTH...0.25 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...38.223N / 76.755WENDING LAT/LON...38.226N / 76.753W* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGEPENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA....SUMMARY...A GROUND SURVEY CONDUCTED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...TOGETHERWITH RADAR DATA FROM THE ANDREWS AFB TERMINAL DOPPLER WEATHER RADARDETERMINED THERE WAS A BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN COLTONS POINTMARYLAND. MINOR TREE AND ROOF DAMAGE WAS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OFTHE INTERSECTION OF COLTON POINT RD...RT 242 WITH BAYVIEW RD ANDALONG BEACH RD BETWEEN CHARLES HALL RD AND POINT BREEZE RD. A FEWSHINGLES WERE BLOWN OFF SOME STRUCTURES IN THIS AREA. A TREE CAMEDOWN ON WIRES IN THE 38300 BLOCK OF BEACH RD. A TRAMPOLINE NEAR ARESIDENCE ON COLTON POINT RD NEXT TO THE TOWN POST OFFICE WAS LIFTEDUP AND BECAME LODGED 90 FEET UP IN A NEARBY TALL PINE TREE. TWOLARGE WOODEN PLAY SET WERE BLOWN OVER...ONE WAS DRAGGED ABOUT 15FEET.THIS TORNADO WAS LIKELY THE EXTENSION OF A WATERSPOUT THAT CROSSEDTHE POTOMAC RIVER JUST BEFORE 9 PM.&&...BRIEF EF-0 TORNADO CONFIRMED IN WOODBINE MARYLAND...LOCATION...WOODBINE IN HOWARD COUNTY MARYLANDDATE...JUNE 10 2013ESTIMATED TIME...6:59 PM TO 7:01 PM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF-0MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...80 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...100 YARDSLENGTH...0.50 MILESBEGINNING LAT/LON...39.291N / 77.127WENDING LAT/LON...39.295N / 77.121W* FATALITIES...0* INJURIES...0* THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TOCHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWSSTORM DATA....SUMMARY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND HOWARD COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCYMANAGEMENT PERFORMED A STORM SURVEY ON TUESDAY JUNE 11TH IN WOODBINEMARYLAND. THE RESULTS OF THIS SURVEY COMBINED WITH EYEWITNESSACCOUNTS CONFIRM THAT AN EF-0 TORNADO WITH WINDS OF 80 MPH OCCURREDALONG A ONE HALF MILE PATH.TREE TOPS WERE SHEARED ALONG A PATH OF FOREST JUST WEST OF WOODBINEROAD. THE FUNNEL LOWERED TO THE GROUND A SHORT TIME LATER CAUSINGLARGE TREES TO BE UPROOTED OR SNAPPED. SOME OF THE TREES WERETWISTED. THE 100 YARD WIDE TORNADO CONTINUED TO TRACK NORTHEASTACROSS WOODBINE ROAD AND UPROOTED A TRAFFIC SIGN AND LOFTED THEDEBRIS INTO A ROW OF TREES. ADDITIONAL MINOR DAMAGE WAS DONE TO AWIRE FENCE. THE TORNADO CONTINUED NORTHEAST AND CAUSED SIGNIFICANTDAMAGE TO A TWO CAR GARAGE LOCATED AT THE 3200 BLOCK OF STARTINGGATE COURT. DEBRIS FROM THE GARAGE WAS LOFTED INTO THE AIR ANDDISPLACED THROUGHOUT THE RESIDENT PROPERTY AND INTO NEIGHBORINGPROPERTIES. EYEWITNESSES REPORTED SEEING THE TORNADO LIFT NEAR THEINTERSECTION OF HAYLOFT COURT AND STARTING GATE COURT. POCKETS OFTREE DAMAGE WERE FOUND FURTHER EAST ON STARTING GATE COURT AND ALONGCABIN RUN. SPORADIC MINOR TREE DAMAGE WAS ALSO NOTED ON FLORENCE ANDDUVAL ROADS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE MAIN IMPACT ZONE. ONERESIDENT PROVIDED VIDEO OF THE FUNNEL.&& Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Quite the couplet on the tornado warned cell. It started rotating almost immediatly.watchi that on radarscope...classic couplet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Hey all, take the storms that are happening OUTSIDE the Mid-Atlantic region OUTSIDE the mid-atlantic sub- forums. Perhaps in the Great Lakes sub-forum? TY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 90/90 in wind on the PDS STW... we will have to see how that fairs as we go into the overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 90/90 in wind on the PDS STW... we will have to see how that fairs as we go into the overnightI don't think it matters. No models bring that area in here do they? It might matter with regard to the low development but otherwise.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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