ThePhotoGuy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 More rain! FLOOD WATCHNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC150 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013MDZ003-501-502-VAZ027>031-WVZ050>053-055-501>504-130200-/O.NEW.KLWX.FF.A.0004.130613T0000Z-130613T2100Z//00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/WASHINGTON-EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY-CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY-SHENANDOAH-FREDERICK VA-PAGE-WARREN-CLARKE-HAMPSHIRE-MORGAN-BERKELEY-JEFFERSON-HARDY-WESTERN GRANT-EASTERN GRANT-WESTERN MINERAL-EASTERN MINERAL-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAGERSTOWN...FROSTBURG...CUMBERLAND...WINCHESTER...FRONT ROYAL...MARTINSBURG...CHARLES TOWN...MOOREFIELD...BAYARD...MOUNT STORM...PETERSBURG...ELK GARDEN...KEYSER...FORT ASHBY150 PM EDT WED JUN 12 2013...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGHTHURSDAY AFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STERLING VIRGINIA HAS ISSUED A* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF MARYLAND...NORTHWEST VIRGINIA AND NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN MARYLAND...CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALLEGANY...EXTREME WESTERN ALLEGANY AND WASHINGTON. IN NORTHWEST VIRGINIA... CLARKE...FREDERICK VA...PAGE...SHENANDOAH AND WARREN. IN NORTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...BERKELEY...EASTERN GRANT...EASTERN MINERAL...HAMPSHIRE...HARDY...JEFFERSON...MORGAN...WESTERN GRANT AND WESTERN MINERAL.* FROM 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON* SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS MAY BRING HEAVY RAIN ON THURSDAY WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.* WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED FROM HEAVY RAINFALL DURING THE PAST WEEK...ONLY AN INCH OF RAINFALL IN AN HOUR COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 looks like the euro caved next Really? Garden variety severe here we come! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Really? Garden variety severe here we come! 18z position near/north of hgr.. 0z over the bay or md east of the bay. no real deepening.. about 1000mb or just below during that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Sorry guys, but I am really happy we aren't getting the end-of-days storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z position near/north of hgr.. 0z over the bay or md east of the bay. no real deepening.. about 1000mb or just below during that time. Damn you, cold atlantic air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Sorry guys, but I am really happy we aren't get the end-of-days storm. more rain at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltimoreguy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let the run on toilet paper and milk commence. Foot's Forecast, every soccer mom's weather forecast of choice has just weighed in, according to Towson Patch. "If the derecho was a 10, this event is going to be a nine," said Rich Foot, founder of Foot's Forecast. "The potential for damage and the timing really compare to the derecho event or the June storm of last year," Foot said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z position near/north of hgr.. 0z over the bay or md east of the bay. no real deepening.. about 1000mb or just below during that time. Models seriously suck. I'm going to keep calling for lots of severe even if I bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 18z position near/north of hgr.. 0z over the bay or md east of the bay. no real deepening.. about 1000mb or just below during that time. So that bombing cyclone over PA really was just a thing of model fantasy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Euro has indeed caved, speeding up and weakening sfc low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Quick synopsis of the 12z WRF mesoscale models: Both the ARW and NMM blow up a cluster of thunderstorms in Ohio by early evening. The NMM kills it off over the Apps, while the ARW sends it through overnight, especially northern MD. Both kill off the Chicago high-risk storms before they get here. The NMM initiates too far east on Thursday, which basically makes the entire run dry. The ARW has some storms in early and mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So we hug the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let the run on toilet paper and milk commence. Foot's Forecast, every soccer mom's weather forecast of choice has just weighed in, according to Towson Patch. "If the derecho was a 10, this event is going to be a nine," said Rich Foot, founder of Foot's Forecast. "The potential for damage and the timing really compare to the derecho event or the June storm of last year," Foot said. never understood why anyone listens to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So that bombing cyclone over PA really was just a thing of model fantasy... could be.. maybe why we've never seen it before since it doesn't happen easily. the whole phasing thing is always a problem. good news is the naysayers can claim rightness for the wrong reasons if it comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let the run on toilet paper and milk commence. Foot's Forecast, every soccer mom's weather forecast of choice has just weighed in, according to Towson Patch. "If the derecho was a 10, this event is going to be a nine," said Rich Foot, founder of Foot's Forecast. "The potential for damage and the timing really compare to the derecho event or the June storm of last year," Foot said. christ on a cracker, what a crock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 could be.. maybe why we've never seen it before since it doesn't happen easily. the whole phasing thing is always a problem. good news is the naysayers can claim rightness for the wrong reasons if it comes to pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There is always the 18z and 0z models tonight I suppose. I think a good forecast for now is for a elevated risk for severe storms but nothing historic. Pending more model mayhem I suppose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let the run on toilet paper and milk commence. Foot's Forecast, every soccer mom's weather forecast of choice has just weighed in, according to Towson Patch. "If the derecho was a 10, this event is going to be a nine," said Rich Foot, founder of Foot's Forecast. "The potential for damage and the timing really compare to the derecho event or the June storm of last year," Foot said. This is flat out terrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 lol, this subforum is hilarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The SPC having the slight risk zone north of NYC was always a bit silly, IMO, but I'm also not ready for wagons way south just yet. One thing that does concern me a little is that the best local backing may not coincide with the best destabiliziation. That could favor a more linear mode. These are NAM 4-panel images. The best backing is at 15z: At 18z, the surface winds veer more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There is always the 18z and 0z models tonight I suppose. I think a good forecast for now is for a elevated risk for severe storms but nothing historic. Pending more model mayhem I suppose. I think the mid-level lapse rates being like 6-7 C/KM instead of 9 C/KM like out west will prevent anything historic, and the hypers seem to like to overlook that. But there certainly still is an elevated risk for severe storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let the run on toilet paper and milk commence. Foot's Forecast, every soccer mom's weather forecast of choice has just weighed in, according to Towson Patch. "If the derecho was a 10, this event is going to be a nine," said Rich Foot, founder of Foot's Forecast. "The potential for damage and the timing really compare to the derecho event or the June storm of last year," Foot said. My favorite was: "For the National Weather Service to say there is a 15 percent risk of tornadoes for this area 24 hours out—that's extremely high this far out there in terms of time," Foot said. "In the meteorology business, that's death and destruction." lol http://glenburnie.patch.com/articles/severe-storms-could-bring-tornadoes-derecho-like-damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 My favorite was: "For the National Weather Service to say there is a 15 percent risk of tornadoes for this area 24 hours out—that's extremely high this far out there in terms of time," Foot said. "In the meteorology business, that's death and destruction." lol http://glenburnie.patch.com/articles/severe-storms-could-bring-tornadoes-derecho-like-damage they never said there is a "15% risk of tornadoes". the mod is prob for wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 they never said there is a "15% risk of tornadoes". the mod is prob for wind. I love people who don't know what they are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 they never said there is a "15% risk of tornadoes". the mod is prob for wind. lol To be honest, I haven't looked at the SPC products so I didn't catch that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This was probably a 12z model burp!! Not going to model hug as I fully expect 00z to bring us back!! We have seen this many time before. With that said, if 00z doesn't bring us back, I am throwing in the towel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I love people who don't know what they are talking about but yet they put out forecasts. epic lolz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This was probably a 12z model burp!! Not going to model hug as I fully expect 00z to bring us back!! We have seen this many time before. With that said, if 00z doesn't bring us back, I am throwing in the towel. Its not like the entire threat has disappeared because the low is faster, weaker and further south... it just means the SUPER MEGA UBER SEVERE potential isn't as great... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think even these solutions probably still have an elevated risk compared to usual at least over eastern sections and the timing might still work out further west. But there is a big diff between a fairly rapidly deepening low passing in late day and a meandering one passing early. I would expect the mod to be smaller at the least and maybe a high end slight risk based on recent models. There is lots of time tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think even these solutions probably still have an elevated risk compared to usual at least over eastern sections and the timing might still work out further west. But there is a big diff between a fairly rapidly deepening low passing in late day and a meandering one passing early. I would expect the mod to be smaller at the least and maybe a high end slight risk based on recent models. There is lots of time tho. I think the SPC's 30% hatch region was too far north to begin with. But yeah I generally agree with this...a bit smaller of a mod, but I really don't think they're going to take away the mod. The low is still pretty strong, but the quicker timing does mean less juxtaposition between the backing surface winds and stronger instability, which is perhaps why the discrete tornado threat may shift east a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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