yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I love the RGEM.. for now at least. At 03z the low is still W of PHL at 993mb... so its prob the slowest guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 At 03z the low is still W of PHL at 993mb... so its prob the slowest guidance Sounds like your goal posts for speed. GFS for fastest and Canadian for slowest. As per usual EURO is in the middle and will probably be right, at least for timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I love the RGEM.. for now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 In addition to that map above you posted MN... RGEM also likes -10+ LI's for 15z and 18z and 0-3km EHI over 4 from 15z to 21z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 12z UKIE 2pm South Central PA 998mb 8pm Delmarva 997mb (it heads SE from the 2pm position to get here) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 12Z MODEL EVALUATION INCLUDING THE NAM/GFS/UKMET AND GEM REGIONAL...SHORTWAVE TROUGH/SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY EJECTING ACROSS THENORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...REACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC/SOUTHERNNEW ENGLAND THURS...PREFERENCE: NON-ECMWF CONSENSUS LED BY THE 12Z UKMETCONFIDENCE: AVERAGEOVERWHELMINGLY THE TREND IN THE 12Z GUIDANCE IS TO BE MOREPROGRESSIVE WITH THE EVOLVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCD SFC LOWSEEN NOW MOVING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE MODELS TAKE THISENERGY RAPIDLY INTO THE OH VLY OVERNIGHT AND ALLOW FOR ADDITIONALSHORTWAVE ENERGY DROPPING DOWN FROM ONTARIO TO REINFORCE THE HTFALLS AS THE SYS MOVES ACROSS THE CNTRLAPPALACHIANS...MID-ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND ON THURS. THE 12ZGFS AND 12Z UKMET ARE THE FASTEST FOLLOWED BY THE 12Z NAM AND 12ZGEM REGIONAL. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE MODELS LATE THURS ANDTHURS EVE SUGGEST SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF THE SFC LOW FARTHER SOUTHDOWN OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA BEFORE EXITING OFFSHORE SOUTH OFNEW ENGLAND THURS NIGHT...AFTER INITIALLY CROSSING THROUGH OH/PA.THE 12Z GFS REDEVELOPS THIS LOW FARTHEST SOUTH. THE 12Z GEMREGIONAL AND 12Z NAM ARE A BIT FARTHER NORTH. THE 00Z ECMWF FORITS PART...IS BY FAR A SLOW OUTLIER...AND IS ALREADY TOO SLOW WITHTHE CURRENT LOW PLACEMENT OVER THE MIDWEST. AS A RESULT...ITS MASSFIELDS WILL NOT BE PREFERRED. THEREFORE BASED ON THE LATESTAVAILABLE GUIDANCE AND TRENDS...WILL FAVOR A NON-ECMWF CONSENSUSLED BY THE 12Z UKMET WHICH SPLITS THE LATITUDINAL PLACEMENT OF THESFC LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION BETWEEN THE GEM REGIONAL/NAMAND THE GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I am willing to guess that the MOD risk will be maintained at 1730... perhaps shifted west just a smidge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Meh It's over. Slight risk at 1730z will be likely GAME OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I am willing to guess that the MOD risk will be maintained at 1730... perhaps shifted west just a smidge Me too, but I think it will be shifted southward especially on the northern fringes in PA/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
catoctin wx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Just now from my agency: Potential severe weather conditions are forecasted for the headquarters area starting tonight and worsening tomorrow afternoon with the possibility of thunderstorms, damaging winds, heavy rainfall, and hail. The agency will issue an official operating status anouncement if conditions warrant and based on any Office of Personnel Management announcement. In the interim, employees might wish to request telework, request approval to reschedule their CWS/NEWFlex day off, or to rearrange their work schedule and/or request official time off (for example, by using earned annual leave, earned compensatory time off, earned credit hours, or leave without pay). Should you have any questions, please contact your supervisor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's over. Slight risk at 1730z will be likely GAME OVER. Maybe the NAVGEM will save us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's over. Slight risk at 1730z will be likely GAME OVER. no real need to shift anything at this pt but the faster models definitely could be less exciting locally and the reasoning to go with them is fairly solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Meh, not what you want to hear... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 no real need to shift anything at this pt but the faster models definitely could be less exciting locally and the reasoning to go with them is fairly solid. This is where the Ian-slide to meh begins. You will hang on for a while and by 9am tomorrow you will be in full meh mode. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Meh Beat you to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is where the Ian-slide to meh begins. You will hang on for a while and by 9am tomorrow you will be in full meh mode. lol since im immobile i want the most destructive weather possible so i have a chance to see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let the weenie suicides commence after 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let the weenie suicides commence after 18z I love when people get all butthurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 spc is giving me an error.. dear god why edit: back, phew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 spc is giving me an error.. dear god why The panic is real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 VALID 131200Z - 141200Z ..THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN VA...MD...DEL SRN NJ...SERN PA... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE MID ATLANTIC... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS... ..SYNOPSIS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NRN PLAINS IS CRESTING CNTRL U.S. UPPER RIDGE...AND WILL RESULT IN AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM MEAN TROUGH ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC AND NERN U.S. THURSDAY. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD INTO THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. SFC CYCLONE WILL SHIFT EWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC IN ASSOCIATION WITH DEEPER FORCING ATTENDING THE ERN U.S. SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BY 12Z THURSDAY A COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE SFC LOW OVER PA...SWWD INTO THE OH AND LOWER MS VALLEY REGION. THIS BOUNDARY WILL ADVANCE SEWD DURING THE DAY...REACHING THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER THURSDAY EVENING WITH TRAILING PORTION EXTENDING INTO THE SERN STATES. WARM FRONT EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NWD THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...LIKELY AS FAR NORTH AS NJ. ..MID ATLANTIC REGION SWLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING CYCLONE WILL TRANSPORT UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS THROUGH PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR BENEATH RESIDUAL PLUME OF 7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. THE ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE AS DIABATIC WARMING COMMENCES WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...STRONGER WINDS IN THE 700-500 MB LAYER ROUNDING BASE OF AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL SPREAD OVER THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WLY WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPING REGIME IMMEDIATELY EAST OF SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...SUGGESTING IT MIGHT BE DIFFICULT FOR ANY ONGOING STORMS SURVIVE CROSSING THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...PRE FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE AXIS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE FARTHER EAST FROM THE CNTRL CAROLINAS INTO CNTRL/ERN VA. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE OR AS COLD FRONT OVERTAKES THE DESTABILIZING WARM SECTOR. DEEP LAYER WIND PROFILES WILL BE LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WITH SWLY FLOW IN THE SFC-3 KM LAYER SOUTH OF SFC LOW. THE 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR OF 30-40 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS ESPECIALLY WITHIN 2-3 HOURS OF INITIATION. HOWEVER...TENDENCY MAY BE FOR SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY TO EVOLVE INTO LINE SEGMENTS WITH LEWP/BOW STRUCTURES. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN THREATS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well the MOD risk didn't change in size, shape, or form... its exactly the same as the morning one.. the 30% and shading may have been shifted back slightly... but not much difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So all is well for a bit for those worried that things were going poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well the MOD risk didn't change in size, shape, or form... its exactly the same as the morning one.. the 30% and shading may have been shifted back slightly... but not much difference I think it is the best call to make at this time. A few green/red taggers commented in other forums about how the WPC jumped to the GFS too quickly with its changes today without waiting for the Euro to come out. And as many have said (like Ian and Mark), what happens tomorrow will really be dependent on what comes out of the midwest and it may not be until tomorrow morning where we have a full understanding on what to expect. So, with that said, might as well keep things as is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think it is the best call to make at this time. A few green/red taggers commented in other forums about how the WPC jumped to the GFS too quickly with its changes today without waiting for the Euro to come out. And as many have said (like Ian and Mark), what happens tomorrow will really be dependent on what comes out of the midwest and it may not be until tomorrow morning where we have a full understanding on what to expect. So, with that said, might as well keep things as is Remember tho that the WPC mentioned that the Euro was already too slow with the current situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think it is the best call to make at this time. A few green/red taggers commented in other forums about how the WPC jumped to the GFS too quickly with its changes today without waiting for the Euro to come out. And as many have said (like Ian and Mark), what happens tomorrow will really be dependent on what comes out of the midwest and it may not be until tomorrow morning where we have a full understanding on what to expect. So, with that said, might as well keep things as is Def agree with your post... prob want to watch the evolution of whatever comes out of the Midwest/Lakes, be it MCS, bow echo, or the "D" thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Great news if the risk of violent weather backs off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Remember tho that the WPC mentioned that the Euro was already too slow with the current situation. Yeah, the Euro from almost 12 hours ago..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 looks like the euro caved next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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