yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LWX likes low 90s for us this afternoon.... but says storm chances will be low till tonight due to lack of organized lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That literally is the only way to express the model situation. If only we had a high-resolution NCEP model that is supposed to be favored in convective events. Oh wait.... SREF is usually pretty good in this range but not necessarily "killer" till morning of. I'd like to see it a little less progressive with the sfc low but it has arguably gotten 'better' since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LWX likes low 90s for us this afternoon.... but says storm chances will be low till tonight due to lack of organized lift I'm almost ready to bail on the first part.. tho I'd like the boundaries it might give us. Seems like only the NAM4K is showing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 When was the last time the EURO fell flat on its face? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HIGH RISK COMING 1630Z OUTLOOK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HIGH RISK COMING 1630Z OUTLOOKFor tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Earthlight was asked in the NYC forum where he thought the highest potential for tornadoes would be... his response: In an area from near or just north of DCA through South/Southeast PA and into Southwest NJ. That threat may lift northward along the warm front into Central NJ as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 For tomorrow? For NRN IL/NWRN OH/N IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HIGH RISK COMING 1630Z OUTLOOK Source? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 For tomorrow? no, today http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1040.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HIGH RISK COMING 1630Z OUTLOOK For tomorrow? No, today for the MOD Risk area. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1040NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1026 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN IA...NRN IL...NRN IND...NWRN OH CONCERNING...OUTLOOK UPGRADE VALID 121526Z - 121630Z SUMMARY...THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK WILL INCLUDE A CATEGORICAL UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL FROM EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...AND NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF OHIO. IN ADDITION...TORNADO PROBABILITIES WILL BE INCREASED TO 15 PERCENT OVER PORTIONS OF EXTREME EASTERN IOWA INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. DISCUSSION...SVR TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF EASTERN IOWA/NORTHWEST ILLINOIS AND QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE SUPERCELLS WITH A RISK FOR TORNADOES...POSSIBLY SIGNIFICANT...WITH UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A FAST-MOVING AND FORWARD-PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM. WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE HIGH RISK AREA...WITH SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE GUSTS POSSIBLE. DETAILS WILL BE FORTHCOMING IN THE 1630Z CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. ..BUNTING/CARBIN.. 06/12/2013 ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...DVN... LAT...LON 40428861 40538938 40979080 41469099 41919096 42269070 42459028 42358912 42388860 42298808 41728689 41638595 41678518 41698471 41658438 41248404 40608437 40348508 40288608 40328738 40428861 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Source? http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1040.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Source? Nevermind..I see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 HIGH RISK COMING 1630Z OUTLOOK phew.. might have made it thru the yr without one now how do we get a high risk here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GFS is pretty fast with the low. Boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe Vanni Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's splitting the energy and taking the low pressure with the front piece. Prior runs had all of the energy consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 phew.. might have made it thru the yr without one now how do we get a high risk here? Have JI hack SPC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 If the 12z GFS is right, the show is over by 2pm for anyone west of Philly. A rather significant increase in speed of the low. Not sure if this is convective feedback issues, but dang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GFS is pretty fast with the low. Boo. It takes the low on a track no other models have (down to southern DE), looks iffy. Edit: Then the low moves back into southern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 GFS is pretty fast with the low. Boo. Meh, the American models have been all over the place. Wait to see if the Euro holds.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Meh, the American models have been all over the place. Wait to see if the Euro holds.. Now watch it fold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I don't really like 1" small events...hopefully it is either huge or nothing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Look what the past few boring winters have brought us. Model hugging severe potenital. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Meh, the American models have been all over the place. Wait to see if the Euro holds.. it's sort of a discombobulated late phase/not really phase.. we always suck at phasing when we need it in winter. but the gfs sucks at modeling it too so who knows. tricky setup.. could easily bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Thanks all for an interesting thread. I too like to see SVR WX - just not at my house. I'm personally hoping our local mets are right with the MCS jumping the Apps and reforming just east of here so you guys get the fun weather in DC that you're looking for (grin). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 WPC went with UKIE and EURO last night with the low near HGR at 0Z. Hopefully they can continue that trend if euro is status quo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is just like winter. Just going by that alone tells me to have more faith in the Euro with the US models not being as consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Any 2nd tier model good news while we wait for the Euro? Yoda? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Any 2nd tier model good news while we wait for the Euro? Yoda? 12z RGEM looks like the 00z EURO if you accept that model... its really slow... 991 near Harrisburg PA at 00z FRI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 12z RGEM looks like the 00z EURO if you accept that model... its really slow... 991 near Harrisburg PA at 00z FRI I love the RGEM.. for now at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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