Amped Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 995 is strong for a miller b primary any time of year. We are lucky the timing isn't 6 hrs slower or it cold really be a historic outbreak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Topper Shutt @Toppersweather The WUSA 9 First Alert weather team is upgrading Thursday to a Red Alert. Damaging winds & tornadoes are poss. https://twitter.com/Toppersweather/status/344823233150861312 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 New SREF fromSPC for 18z tomorrow (sig tor ingredients) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yikes... I'm bordering the 45% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Since it has been upgraded to a "Red Alert," Tornadoes for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I wouldn't call it "dry," but it is indeed drier than the GFS, and for good reason. The GFS has been having boundary layer issues with this event and has not modeled the low-level mixing that should lower the dewpoints to within the realm of what the NAM has. You can see by the sharp dewpoint change near the surface that the GFS is not properly mixing out the boundary layer: 20130612_06zGFS_DCsounding.png What site are you using for these? Nice interface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 995 is strong for a miller b primary any time of year. We are lucky the timing isn't 6 hrs slower or it cold really be a historic outbreak. yeah.. the timing is still a bit off but i agree the ceiling is a historic event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Temps today will bust forecast at least. It is WARM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah.. the timing is still a bit off but i agree the ceiling is a historic event. I think even if the timing is a bit earlier than we'd "like" it will probably still be substantial. The question is it going to be a truly memorable one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah.. the timing is still a bit off but i agree the ceiling is a historic event. Not sure we'll hit that historic level though. Probably robust/intense but nothing for the record books. Who knows tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 New SREF fromSPC for 18z tomorrow (sig tor ingredients) Are all of those individual probabilities that are being taken into account here equal, or are one or two factors (MLLCL or MLCAPE) dominating the SigTor probability calculation and spitting out that crazy plot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What site are you using for these? Nice interface. Twisterdata is my go-to for point-and-click soundings: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 yeah.. the timing is still a bit off but i agree the ceiling is a historic event. If euro holds today, i'll go with it instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I think even if the timing is a bit earlier than we'd "like" it will probably still be substantial. The question is it going to be a truly memorable one. The Euro still had a ~996 north of HGR at 0z Thurs. In Euro we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 If euro holds today, i'll go with it instead. Keep us posted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The Euro still had a ~996 north of HGR at 0z Thurs. In Euro we trust. Let me know when your official call is for 10-15 strong tornadoes in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Twisterdata is my go-to for point-and-click soundings: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php? Superb, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Let me know when your official call is for 10-15 strong tornadoes in our area. 27 10 second EF0s, and an EF5 thru the Mall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 27 10 second EF0s, and an EF5 thru the Mall. That is not acceptable. At least toss me an EF-2 in the woods near my house so I can observe with no casualties. IN all seriousness tho - I'm trying to decide if I should take tomorrow off work or not. I would like to either drive around (not chase) or track from home...can't be distracted by work on a day like tomorrow. Need to decide by the time the 1730z comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Cape is forecasted to get to 2000+ today so be interesting to see if that mcs the hi res nam has for tonight comes true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The Euro still had a ~996 north of HGR at 0z Thurs. In Euro we trust. Was about to make this comment. The Euro paints a pretty grim picture for anyone east of I-81 and south of the PA turnpike. The NAM and GFS continue to both be more progressive/weaker with the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Storm hype has even made its way to the golf channel (US Open is in Philly this week). Talking about a derecho, tornadoes and hail tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The Euro still had a ~996 north of HGR at 0z Thurs. In Euro we trust. It is interesting that the GFS/NAM are slowing down ever so slowly... not as slow as the EURO... but enough to help us reach a more "substantial" risk for severe in our area. I would gather EURO is worst case scenario re timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Was about to make this comment. The Euro paints a pretty grim picture for anyone east of I-81 and south of the PA turnpike. The NAM and GFS continue to both be more progressive/weaker with the low. Which model camp will win? Model Battles - Today on AmWx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It is interesting that the GFS/NAM are slowing down ever so slowly... not as slow as the EURO... but enough to help us reach a more "substantial" risk for severe in our area. I would gather EURO is worst case scenario re timing? More dangerous than the GFS/NAM? Yes. Worst-case scenario? Probably not, but for this situation and this location, maybe. How's that for a definitive answer, HA! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Was about to make this comment. The Euro paints a pretty grim picture for anyone east of I-81 and south of the PA turnpike. The NAM and GFS continue to both be more progressive/weaker with the low. It's been more or less steady now too with the Americans still shifting around a bit run to run. I mean.. I hate hugging the Euro just because it's the Euro but it is the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Which model camp will win? Model Battles - Today on AmWx If this was winter, it would be the opposite -- great GFS/NAM runs and weak EURO and the EURO would be right. Now its weak GFS/NAM runs and great EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 More dangerous than the GFS/NAM? Yes. Worst-case scenario? Probably not, but for this situation and this location, maybe. How's that for a definitive answer, HA! I should have phrased that better, my fault. I meant more dangerous as you said Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It's been more or less steady now too with the Americans still shifting around a bit run to run. I mean.. I hate hugging the Euro just because it's the Euro but it is the Euro. That literally is the only way to express the model situation. If only we had a high-resolution NCEP model that is supposed to be favored in convective events. Oh wait.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 If this was winter, it would be the opposite -- great GFS/NAM runs and weak EURO and the EURO would be right. Now its weak GFS/NAM runs and great EURO That's cause everyone is snow weenies on here and hope the GFS/NAM is right in winter but, know the Euro will usually win. In this case not everyone is hoping for a tornado to hit their house. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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