mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Watch out for that cold Atlantic air. Like Mark said, besides causing some mixing of dews, not sure how the ocean temp is going to completely put a lid on the instability Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 He just wants to be able to claim he was right if it does bust. No real logic behind it. I may have to use some comp time tomorrow afternoon if we stay in the zone. I'm going to back out of the thread after posting this and let you guys have fun, but we don't have a hot antecedent air mass and there will be a lot of junk clouds left over from today's precipitation. You may say that I have no real logic behind this but there is no better kiss of death than a Day 2 MOD Risk in the Mid Atlantic. Ciao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm going to back out of the thread after posting this and let you guys have fun, but we don't have a hot antecedent air mass and there will be a lot of junk clouds left over from today's precipitation. You may say that I have no real logic behind this but there is no better kiss of death than a Day 2 MOD Risk in the Mid Atlantic. Ciao! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The SPC is trolling me. I wasn't expecting much down this way to begin with anyway. All the fun is up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 A lot of big events everywhere have storms the night or morning prior. Boundaries laid etc. Tomorrow could underperform but it also could be one of the biggest events most of us have ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 WTOP uses the Weather Channel and Doug Hill for their forecasts, don't they? Yep although i think mostly Doug Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Meh. Next. Been waiting since winter to do that to Ian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 There are questions for tomorrow like cloud debris, lapse rates, and differing solutions of low pressure placement, but the dynamics are there for some pretty nasty storms. The questions may not get answered today and part of the answer lies with what happens to the line of storms that form later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 A lot of big events everywhere have storms the night or morning prior. Boundaries laid etc. Tomorrow could underperform but it also could be one of the biggest events most of us have ever seen. While I know the setup is totally different, didn't 6/4/08 have morning convection prior to the afternoon bow echo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 very rare storm around here though. Lets just sit back and relax. Be pleasantly suprised if we get a lot of severe storms + tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 While I know the setup is totally different, didn't 6/4/08 have morning convection prior to the afternoon bow echo? I think so or the night before. This may look more like 6/4/08 than last yr tho neither had a strong low to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 At least DC gets severe from a Miller B and not a dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 At least DC gets severe from a Miller B and not a dryslot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Both the 00z and 06z 4km NAM have sent us into the 90s on Thursday. 00z ARW is too messy on Thursday, but the 00z NMM has potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 WTOP uses the Weather Channel and Doug Hill for their forecasts, don't they? Not sure about the Weather Channel, but they use Doug Hill and local guys. Makes me want to drive over small animals when the weather guy says the high temperature (e.g., "highs in the mid to upper 70s") and IMMEDIATELY afterward, the news anchor says something like "it's currently 69 at Dulles, heading up to 80 degrees". DIE! I guess the O's game on Thursday will be cancelled. Thursday looks like storms could be done by evening/late evening, but I'd say a delay and/or cancellation is fairly likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Media outlets continues to spew out the garbage... http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57588861/long-line-of-fierce-thunderstorms-could-spawn-derecho/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-12/storms-capable-of-producing-derecho-possible-in-midwest-today.html http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/midwest-strong-windstorms-derecho-19374508 Tomorrow afternoon at 2PM when OPM announces an early release, the roads will be chaos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Tomorrow afternoon at 2PM when OPM announces an early release, the roads will be chaos. They better not...I still have nightmares of rush hour blizzard and the earthquake traffic jam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Both the 00z and 06z 4km NAM have sent us into the 90s on Thursday. 00z ARW is too messy on Thursday, but the 00z NMM has potential. temp36.gif That's one heck of a gradient between Baltimore and the PA border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Believe in this Wxrisk.com *** ALERT ** ALERT *** I mean REALLY SERIOUS ALERT**NWS/ SPC - Storm Prediction Center -- has UPGRADED and places all of eastern and central and Northern VA... central and eastern MD... southeast PA southern half of NJ in a MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR JUNE 13 ... this does not mean isolated severe storms and isolated TORNADOES are " possible".... it means to expect a LOT of severe thunderstorms and SEVERAL Tornaodes some of which could be real ass kickers This is NOT forecast... It is OFFICIAL from NWS / SPC Horrible. Back to weather, the upstream complexes and wake lows are truckin'. Obs of storm motion of 55-65KT and surface obs of 43/48KT in S. Wisconsin are nothing to sneeze at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Watch out for that cold Atlantic air. Did I post that in this forum? That was aimed for the NJ/phl sector, not you guys.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well, good thing you're not WTOP because they said "prepare for DERECHO PART DEUX and large hail and tornadoes and high winds and...". WBAL tweeted an article about how it was a "derecho" type of system... with quotes from Henry Margusity and Tony Pann. Both said that it wasn't appropriate to use derecho in this case and compared tomorrow's threat to what happened Monday (though stronger). I know that Tony made absolutely no mention of a derecho in his morning weather segments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 At least DC gets severe from a Miller B and not a dryslot. sad but true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So the atlantic ocean is still cold and we have a powerful low pressure system approaching that can easily draw in that marine stable air with a wind direction slightly more backed in a certain location.. Tornado threats are never a slam dunk in this area for that reason alone. Warm front location will be huge (sorry if I'm stating the obvious)..This is no doubt a high end threat for the area but I always remain a bit skeptical Did I post that in this forum? That was aimed more for the NJ/phl sector, not you guys.. see above - if it was meant for the NJ/PHL guys, you didn't do a very good job at saying so (nor is this the NJ/PHL subforum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 see above - if it was meant for the NJ/PHL guys, you didn't do a very good job at saying so (nor is this the NJ/PHL subforum) Sorry about that, I've been going back and forth between the 2 forums and lost track of where I was I guess. All systems are a go for you guys, just need to watch how convection unfolds out of the Midwest tonight.. Sorry for being the obvious "rando red tagger who has no idea what he's talking about" floating around your forum this morning. I'm excited for the threat just like the rest of you's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Sorry about that, I've been going back and forth between the 2 forums and lost track of where I was I guess. All systems are a go for you guys, just need to watch how convection unfolds out of the Midwest tonight.. Sorry for being the obvious "rando red tagger who has no idea what he's talking about" floating around your forum this morning. I'm excited for the threat just like the rest of you's. All good, it happens Though, Eskimo Joe may be bummed that the cold atlantic air is no longer on his side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Sunny here (practicing) Hi mapgirl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Sunny here (practicing) Hi mapgirl You came to the right place, the sun forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The NAM is notoriously dry for this event, at least compared to the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 The NAM is notoriously dry for this event, at least compared to the GFS. I wouldn't call it "dry," but it is indeed drier than the GFS, and for good reason. The GFS has been having boundary layer issues with this event and has not modeled the low-level mixing that should lower the dewpoints to within the realm of what the NAM has. You can see by the sharp dewpoint change near the surface that the GFS is not properly mixing out the boundary layer: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nieciez Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Tomorrow afternoon at 2PM when OPM announces an early release, the roads will be chaos. I work for the Federal Govt here in DC and we have received a warning email about the possibility of severe weather for the next two days....: Subject: Severe Weather Through Thursday - Potential Derecho for DC Importance: High Severe Weather Outbreak Through Thursday: There is severe weather on the horizon with impacts that could be similar to the derecho one year ago this month. Derechoes are large clusters of thunderstorms that produce widespread wind damage. These windstorms leave wide, long swaths of straight-line wind damage with winds as strong as 50 to 100 mph or higher. Last year’s derecho knocked out power to FSI and caused a lot of trouble for CENS with the catastrophic failure of the Verizon network in northern VA. OEM recommends you begin planning now for a potential repeat of last year. Here is the current outlook for this storm. The DC area may be impacted Thursday - Friday: Today, Wednesday, June 12, 2013: Severe thunderstorms will ignite from eastern Iowa, northern/central Illinois and southern Wisconsin into Indiana, southern lower Michigan and Ohio. This could affect the Wednesday afternoon/evening commute in Chicago, Milwaukee, Detroit and possibly Cleveland. Damaging winds, large hail, some tornadoes and local flash flooding are all potential threats. Wednesday Night: A cluster of severe thunderstorms with damaging straight-line winds will sweep through western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia. It's possible that thunderstorms Wednesday night could congeal into a derecho with a more widespread damaging wind threat in this region. Thursday, June 13, 2013: The threat shifts east with damaging straight-line winds, large hail and a few tornadoes possible in the Mid-Atlantic States, including Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Washington, D.C. Damaging straight-line winds and heavy rainfall are the main threats farther south into the Carolinas. Threats: · Non-thunderstorm high winds: There is a threat of strong winds not associated with thunderstorms downing trees and power lines Thursday night and Friday with gusts over 50 mph possible particularly in coastal New England and eastern Long Island. · Flooding: A band of heavy rainfall is anticipated from the Upper Midwest into New England, including Chicago, Cleveland, New York City, and Boston. Given saturated ground from Tropical Storm Andrea, the flood threat is particularly high from eastern Pennsylvania and New Jersey into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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