mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 As of right now, most of the precip appears to be in NEPA and SNE. <snip> With this type of system, biggest severe threat is on the south side, while precip is north, right? Yes, our area would be between the cold front and the warm front that is associated with the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What does that even mean? It means that you should treat anything DT does call a forecast as junk... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What does that even mean? Means hide yo kids, hide yo wife, hide yo husband..... Think he meant he is not forecasting that he is just mentioning what SPC/NWS is forecasting. But, it is DT so who the hell knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So this maybe early and better known by tonight but, I am chasing tomorrow. Where would be better NE MD or SE PA? I am leaning around the York area because they always seem to get tornadoes there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Ours aren't good enough so we need the outside help. Hi Mark! *waves* I put my thoughts on Twitter last night, but figured it was covered here well enough I'm trying to get Ian up here for a chase day tomorrow. @MADUSWX 12h Thursday looking better and better as a chase day in northeastern MD/southeastern PA/Delmarva. Still some details that need to be worked out @MADUSWX 12h .@ryanhanrahan Gonna see if some discrete stuff can't pop up near the warm front... otherwise playing the tail-end charlie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 What does that even mean? I don't know...but with CAPS LOCK ON and *********************'s, it's GOT to be serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So this maybe early and better known by tonight but, I am chasing tomorrow. Where would be better NE MD or SE PA? I am leaning around the York area because they always seem to get tornadoes there. will depend on where exactly the warm front sets up, the strongest shear will most likely be along it (I think, maybe a red tagger can confirm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 will depend on where exactly the warm front sets up, the strongest shear will most likely be along it (I think, maybe a red tagger can confirm) Ya somewhere between York and Lancaster down to Westminster and Bel Air seem to be prime areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 will depend on where exactly the warm front sets up, the strongest shear will most likely be along it (I think, maybe a red tagger can confirm) No doubt. However, you need instability as well, and the closer you get to the warm front, the higher chance for an overcast sky. You want to aim for the best of both worlds (shear & instability). It's going to come down to what happens tonight in the Ohio Valley and what happens as that convection moves eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So this maybe early and better known by tonight but, I am chasing tomorrow. Where would be better NE MD or SE PA? I am leaning around the York area because they always seem to get tornadoes there. I'd stage in York if your target area is the LSV and Northern Md. You can get down to baltimore via 83 in 45 mins or so, lancaster via 30 in about 30 mins. There's a sheetz adjacent to both. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So the atlantic ocean is still cold and we have a powerful low pressure system approaching that can easily draw in that marine stable air with a wind direction slightly more backed in a certain location.. Tornado threats are never a slam dunk in this area for that reason alone. Warm front location will be huge (sorry if I'm stating the obvious)..This is no doubt a high end threat for the area but I always remain a bit skeptical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 So the atlantic ocean is still cold and we have a powerful low pressure system approaching that can easily draw in that marine stable air with a wind direction slightly more backed in a certain location.. Tornado threats are never a slam dunk in this area for that reason alone. This is no doubt a high end threat for the area but I always remain skeptical Exactly this has bust written all over it. There was a MOD Risk for the plains yesterday and look how that turned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Exactly this has bust written all over it. There was a MOD Risk for the plains yesterday and look how that turned out. That mod risk was not for tornadoes, was for wind and the derecho they were expecting never happened. As far as I can tell, a derecho isn't our main concern. At least it seems that way to me. Seriously, whats with the debbie downer attitude you have had for days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Exactly this has bust written all over it. There was a MOD Risk for the plains yesterday and look how that turned out. Because it's the same exact setup. Even with the dewpoints mixing out a bit more than what the models show (which I agree with you on that point), it is still a pretty darn good setup for June. I think the SPC is handling tomorrow's potential just fine in the Mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 No doubt. However, you need instability as well, and the closer you get to the warm front, the higher chance for an overcast sky. You want to aim for the best of both worlds (shear & instability). It's going to come down to what happens tonight in the Ohio Valley and what happens as that convection moves eastward. NAM Sounding for KDMH for 18z tomorrow... shows ~3800 CAPE... not too bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 That mod risk was not for tornadoes, was for wind and the derecho they were expecting never happened. As far as I can tell, a derecho isn't our main concern. At least it seems that way to me. Seriously, whats with the debbie downer attitude you have had for days? He just wants to be able to claim he was right if it does bust. No real logic behind it. I may have to use some comp time tomorrow afternoon if we stay in the zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Exactly this has bust written all over it. There was a MOD Risk for the plains yesterday and look how that turned out. That moderate risk was bunk. No models even really showed anything yesterday, not sure why that moderate out there. Tomorrow is a totally different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 As far as I can tell, a derecho isn't our main concern. At least it seems that way to me. Well, good thing you're not WTOP because they said "prepare for DERECHO PART DEUX and large hail and tornadoes and high winds and...". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well, good thing you're not WTOP because they said "prepare for DERECHO PART DEUX and large hail and tornadoes and high winds and...". I hate our media, derecho.... woho ratings!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Novachris Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well, good thing you're not WTOP because they said "prepare for DERECHO PART DEUX and large hail and tornadoes and high winds and...". :facepalm: I heard it to on the way to work. Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm liking all the random red taggers I have never seen popping in to give their thoughts Too bad most random red taggers don't know **** about svr wx. ;( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Media outlets continues to spew out the garbage... http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-201_162-57588861/long-line-of-fierce-thunderstorms-could-spawn-derecho/ http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-12/storms-capable-of-producing-derecho-possible-in-midwest-today.html http://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/midwest-strong-windstorms-derecho-19374508 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well, good thing you're not WTOP because they said "prepare for DERECHO PART DEUX and large hail and tornadoes and high winds and...". WTOP uses the Weather Channel and Doug Hill for their forecasts, don't they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Too bad most random red taggers don't know **** about svr wx. ;( lol regardless their input is welcome. If tornadotony starts posting in here later, then I know **** is gonna get real Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Too bad most random red taggers don't know **** about svr wx. ;( Shove it Nemo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well, good thing you're not WTOP because they said "prepare for DERECHO PART DEUX and large hail and tornadoes and high winds and...". I haven't listened yet today. At least I am going to put some patio furniture in the garage. (Now that the 63 Catalina is getting restored) I guess the O's game on Thursday will be cancelled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Shove it Nemo.I'm not talking the regulars but honestly I don't care what some rando who never posts in the MA or doesn't know the MA thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I'm not talking the regulars but honestly I don't care what some rando who never posts in the MA or doesn't know the MA thinks. fiesty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 fiestyWatch out for that cold Atlantic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 A derecho is certainly possible today... in the Midwest. I wouldn't necessarily bank on it happening, but I think the main problem surrounding all the talk out west is people will remember what happened last year and will expect something similar this time around, which is unlikely. East of the Apps, any local talk of derecho-strength storms for tonight is just silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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