yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 00z 4km NAM seems to want to develop its own MCS right in our backyard just to our west just after 8pm or so... then slowly move it through until i guess it moves NE with the WF around 5 am... looks a tad iffy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 SREF definitely trended more bullish.. pulled the low back to NW of HGR at 18z thur compared to NE MD at 18z prior run. Lines up big parameters in teh same general area from N/NE MD into SE PA especially but broadly the larger area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 00z GFS has a 1000 L in W OH Thursday at 09z... 18z THUR broad-ish 1000 L in SW PA (though the 2m maps has it at 997mb) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 00z GFS has a 1000 L in W OH Thursday at 09z... 18z THUR broad-ish 1000 L in SW PA (though the 2m maps has it at 997mb) 850s seem a bit warm but WV might cash in on backlash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 850s seem a bit warm but WV might cash in on backlash Low takes forever to trek across PA as by 00z its just west of PHL... slowly deepens as it does to mid 990s as it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 might be showing the mall wedge supercell on this frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like GFS isnt quite as enthused as the NAM was for tomorrow afternoon activity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Looks like GFS isnt quite as enthused as the NAM was for tomorrow afternoon activity I'll trade in anything tomorrow for an epic Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 00z GFS soundings are pretty decent... not the disturbing 00z NAM kind... but they still look pretty good for us severe weather weenies. Not sure I buy 5000+ SBCAPE at 2pm on Thursday at BWI and DCA and ~4000 at IAD... but still nice soudings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 00z GFS soundings are pretty decent... not the disturbing 00z NAM kind... but they still look pretty good for us severe weather weenies. Not sure I buy 5000+ SBCAPE at 2pm on Thursday at BWI and DCA and ~4000 at IAD... but still nice soudings With that strong of a low, pumping in cape values that high doesn't seem unreasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Becoming quite concerned with just the non-tstorm winds on Thursday afternoon. The strengthing of the low pressure system with 50 kts at 925 under a pure dry adiabatic lapse rate from 800 mb is nothing to cough at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not ready to throw in the towel on tomorrow. We have a habit on over performing with MCS as of late. Thursday is looking like a special day but I remain skeptical on tornado probabilities in this part of the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Becoming quite concerned with just the non-tstorm winds on Thursday afternoon. The strengthing of the low pressure system with 50 kts at 925 under a pure dry adiabatic lapse rate from 800 mb is nothing to cough at. Looks windy behind the low too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 This is comical. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 12, 2013 Author Share Posted June 12, 2013 Caught this little gem in the St. Mary's Co EF-0 Tornado report. A TRAMPOLINE NEAR A RESIDENCE ON COLTON POINT RD NEXT TO THE TOWN POST OFFICE WAS LIFTED UP AND BECAME LODGED 90 FEET UP IN NEARBY TALL PINE TREE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I will go 0/15/15 for Day 1 and 30% hatched for Day 2 OTLK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I will go 0/15/15 for Day 1 and 30% hatched for Day 2 OTLK Not that I should be forecasting SPC's ways, but I'd expect for DC proper, 0/5/15 (T/H/W respectively, though the 15 may go to JYOish), and a MDT should definitely be in place for DC on the d2 but I agree with your 30% hatched call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Not that I should be forecasting SPC's ways, but I'd expect for DC proper, 0/5/15 (T/H/W respectively, though the 15 may go to JYOish), and a MDT should definitely be in place for DC on the d2 but I agree with your 30% hatched call. Just having a lil fun predicting what SPC will say in the next few mins I see the MOD risk coming at the 1730z outlook... allowing SPC to digest the 12z suite and see what goes on in the Plains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 MOD RISK EAST OF BR DAY 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 MOD RISK EAST OF BR DAY 2 Happily correct on that one, we have a potentially dangerous severe weather outbreak on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lester Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN VIRGINIA...ERN MARYLAND...DELAWARE...SOUTHEAST PA...AND SRN NEW JERSEY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 45% hatched is MOD risk region for Day 2 aka Thursday Disco: ...MID-ATLANTIC REGION SWWD INTO THE GULF COAST STATES... POTENTIALLY SUBSTANTIAL/WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS FORECAST DAY 2/THURSDAY -- FOCUSED ON THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION -- AND LIKELY AN ONGOING MCS -- ARE EXPECTED AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS THE UPPER OH VALLEY REGION INCLUDING MUCH OF PA AND LIKELY WV. WHILE THIS MCS MAY BE DECAYING AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL LIKELY AFFECT DESTABILIZATION AND EVENTUAL LOCATION OF NEW CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. HAVING SAID THAT...AS THE STRONG UPPER SYSTEM DIGS SEWD AND THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS E OF THE MOUNTAINS...DIURNAL HEATING/DESTABILIZATION COMBINED WITH STRONG UVV FOCUSED INVOF THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW WILL ALLOW STORMS TO REDEVELOP/REINTENSIFY ACROSS THE AREA. SHEAR WILL BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF UPDRAFT ROTATION...AND THUS SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CAN BE EXPECTED. ATTM...THE GREATEST TORNADO RISK APPEARS TO EXIST WITHIN A ZONE FROM NRN VA/MD/DE NWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN PA AND NJ...WHERE STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST JUST AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND INVOF THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Day 1 (today) 2/15/15 (added the WV/WRN PA disco with ours since 30 hatched wind/hail is bordering LWX CWA in NW portions and I believe we have some WV posters in our forum) ...SRN MI INTO OH...WV...WRN PA LATE AFTERNOON... ALTHOUGH THE MAIN SURFACE LOW WILL BE OVER IL AT THIS TIME...A BROAD AREA OF CONVERGENCE WILL EXIST NEAR A DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FROM SRN LOWER MI INTO OH. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW EXTREME INSTABILITY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT WHICH WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. ...VA INTO THE DELMARVA - AFTERNOON... BRIEF SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF THE OH VALLEY SYSTEM...WITH STRONG HEATING AND INSTABILITY DEVELOPING. WEAK CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE SFC TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR ISOLATED STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL OR WIND DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEN OVERNIGHT...INSTABILITY AND SHEAR PROFILES WILL CONDITIONALLY BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT THE MAIN CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY REMAIN MAINLY NW OF THE AREA AS THE MAIN SURGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS OH AND WRN PA. HOWEVER...SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS WILL REASSESS AS NEW DATA INCLUDING SPECIAL SOUNDINGS BECOME AVAILABLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxrjm Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Anyone more patient and with way more free time than me know if we've had a Day 2 Mod in this region before? I can't recall one, not that it means a whole lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
southmdwatcher Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 0z Euro has a 995-996 low over Gettysburg/Hagerstown area at 48 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 You guys got a day 2 moderate risk on the first day 2 update for Thursday and the Midwest didn't for Wednesday. That says something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Woo! Death and wedges for all tomorrow! (Kidding about the wedges ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Are there any good examples of a similar summertime setup with a strengthening surface low passing thru PA? I've done a slightly more than cursory look and haven't found any. I went back through some Mid Atlantic tornado/severe weather events and I couldn't find anything like what the 12z and 00z suites had either. This bombing surface low with such a vigorous s/w trough this time of year is bound to cause problems somewhere, it's just a matter of how big that problem becomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 LWX AFD ...POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT AND FLASHFLOODING THURSDAY...THURSDAY BEGINS WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FATE OF AMESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AFFECTING THE OHIO VALLEY TONIGHT. IT ISUNCLEAR WHAT THE STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE AT THE BEGINNING OFTHURSDAY...WHETHER IT MAY STILL BE SEVERE AND AFFECT THE WESTERNPORTION OF THE CWA EARLY THURSDAY MORNING /WITH DAMAGING WINDS ANDHEAVY RAINFALL/ OR WHETHER IT WILL BE IN A WEAKENING/DECAYING STATEDURING THE MORNING. WILL NEED TO FURTHER ADDRESS THIS ISSUE AS THEMCS DEVELOPS TODAY AND THE MODELS ARE BETTER ABLE TO RESOLVE DETAILSOF THIS MCS AND ITS EVOLUTION THROUGH THE DAY AND NIGHT.MEANWHILE...THERE IS A GOOD CONSENSUS THAT REGARDLESS OF THE FATE OFAN EARLY MORNING MCS...THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC WILLSUFFICIENTLY DESTABILIZE AND BE PRIMED FOR WHAT COULD BE ASIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EVENT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLYEVENING.AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEYINTO SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARYLOOKS BE DRAPED ACROSS NORTHEAST MARYLAND...WHILE A COLD FRONTAPPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS. MODELS SHOW STRONG SYNOPTIC LIFTACROSS THE CWA...JOINED BY DECENT DESTABILIZATION DURING THEAFTERNOON AND LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG LAPSE RATES AND CAPEAOA 2000 J/KG. MODELS ALSO INDICATE STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEARACROSS THE CWA /BULK SHEAR GTE 50 KT/. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULTIN WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...SOME PRODUCINGDAMAGING/DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND ALSO A FEWTORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Well tomorrow night could be interesting maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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